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Old 12-21-2016, 11:22 AM
 
23,260 posts, read 16,070,454 times
Reputation: 8535

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New York State population drops for the first time in a decade - NY Daily News

This refers to the state, but a closer read of the article shows this also refers to the city. It mentions a third of the residents who moved out moving to Jersey, CT, or PA. Those are NYC residents who want to stay in the region. 25% of those who leave moved to FL.

This coincides with rents dropping in NYC (people moving out, plus all these new buildings coming online).
Rents are falling in New York City. Is this a crash?

Foreign immigration to NYC is declining according to that article, and that was the only thing that really kept NYC's population (and therefore NY state's). So NY is back to the era of population losses!
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Old 12-21-2016, 11:51 AM
 
Location: Bronx
14,812 posts, read 17,417,710 times
Reputation: 7515
Quote:
Originally Posted by NyWriterdude View Post
New York State population drops for the first time in a decade - NY Daily News

This refers to the state, but a closer read of the article shows this also refers to the city. It mentions a third of the residents who moved out moving to Jersey, CT, or PA. Those are NYC residents who want to stay in the region. 25% of those who leave moved to FL.

This coincides with rents dropping in NYC (people moving out, plus all these new buildings coming online).
Rents are falling in New York City. Is this a crash?

Foreign immigration to NYC is declining according to that article, and that was the only thing that really kept NYC's population (and therefore NY state's). So NY is back to the era of population losses!
Nice find NYwriterdude. Here is my take on this. NY especially Western NYS is part of the greater Rustbelt which have been dismantled from Reagan and Clinton neoliberal policies of a generation prior. Lets not forget local politics such as Pataki economic policies of Spitzer, and Paterson did not improve anything either. A few weeks ago I went up to Albany for a day. Boy oh boy, Albany looks more depressing than areas of Bronx or Brooklyn. Also if you look at the political map, lots of areas Upstate voted for Trump due to his populist tone and message akin to that of Bernie Sanders.

As for why NYS population is declining? High taxes is one of the main culprits, high cost of living is another. Downstate is a bit different. People are leaving downstate area for due to high cost of living, quality of life, taxes, but on the same time. Migration from other parts of the country is still being felt in NYC area due to an abundance of jobs in the professional sector which require a BA or higher to obtain. What's funny about NYS and NYC is that it attracts a small segment of the American population. Those who are very educated. Remember only less than 1/3 of Americans have a college degree. States like Florida and Texas attract all sorts of persons. When someone leaves NYC, their is some one that will replace that person in an heartbeat. What keeps NYC population afloat is low levels of death, and high rates of out of wedlock births between unmarried men and women. As for immigration? I cant find the source, but I remember reading some years back that immigrants now skip immigration hubs like NYC, LA and Miami all together.

What does this all mean for NYS? Due to its loss of populace, NYS will have to increase taxes to pay its civil workers who are paid nicely. Property will still go up and such. With Trump planning on cutting Planned Parenthood, the state population can see an increase of births, but again more taxes to pay for welfare, state Medicaid snap and so on. Certain industries will probably leave the upstate due to loss of population. With the decline of NYS population, by 2020 NYS will loose 2 congressional seats, therefore loosing more power and say on congressional floor. Thank goodness NY Wasp/Jew old money has lots of sway in DC.

In order for NYS to keep its current size or increase it. NYS needs to improve the states economic vitality. The state economic vitality maybe healthy to a small group of persons, like liberals, highly college educated persons and wealthy, but remember this is not the majority of New York state dwellers.
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Old 12-21-2016, 11:52 AM
 
Location: Glendale NY
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I'm not surprised. Upstate NY is doing horrible. We'll likely end up like Michigan in a few years.
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Old 12-21-2016, 12:05 PM
 
Location: NYC
11,828 posts, read 7,704,170 times
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I think this has to do with many businesses moving operation to other states and countries. And many NYers are moving to nearby states after they've been priced out or looking to start a family and NJ has more affordable home prices. Very common to see NYers posting in the NJ forum looking for buying or location advice. The Indian population in NJ keeps going up, they should just call Edison, NJ. New Delhi, NJ.
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Old 12-21-2016, 12:29 PM
 
Location: Brooklyn, NY
1,271 posts, read 2,554,771 times
Reputation: 811
Quote:
Originally Posted by NyWriterdude View Post
New York State population drops for the first time in a decade - NY Daily News

This refers to the state, but a closer read of the article shows this also refers to the city. It mentions a third of the residents who moved out moving to Jersey, CT, or PA. Those are NYC residents who want to stay in the region. 25% of those who leave moved to FL.

This coincides with rents dropping in NYC (people moving out, plus all these new buildings coming online).
Rents are falling in New York City. Is this a crash?

Foreign immigration to NYC is declining according to that article, and that was the only thing that really kept NYC's population (and therefore NY state's). So NY is back to the era of population losses!
We need the county data (which comes out in March) to say anything about the city. A third going to NJ, PA and CT is nothing new. I seriously doubt the city lost population, though growth might have slowed a bit.
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Old 12-21-2016, 12:42 PM
 
23,260 posts, read 16,070,454 times
Reputation: 8535
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bronxguyanese View Post
Nice find NYwriterdude. Here is my take on this. NY especially Western NYS is part of the greater Rustbelt which have been dismantled from Reagan and Clinton neoliberal policies of a generation prior. Lets not forget local politics such as Pataki economic policies of Spitzer, and Paterson did not improve anything either. A few weeks ago I went up to Albany for a day. Boy oh boy, Albany looks more depressing than areas of Bronx or Brooklyn. Also if you look at the political map, lots of areas Upstate voted for Trump due to his populist tone and message akin to that of Bernie Sanders.

As for why NYS population is declining? High taxes is one of the main culprits, high cost of living is another. Downstate is a bit different. People are leaving downstate area for due to high cost of living, quality of life, taxes, but on the same time. Migration from other parts of the country is still being felt in NYC area due to an abundance of jobs in the professional sector which require a BA or higher to obtain. What's funny about NYS and NYC is that it attracts a small segment of the American population. Those who are very educated. Remember only less than 1/3 of Americans have a college degree. States like Florida and Texas attract all sorts of persons. When someone leaves NYC, their is some one that will replace that person in an heartbeat. What keeps NYC population afloat is low levels of death, and high rates of out of wedlock births between unmarried men and women. As for immigration? I cant find the source, but I remember reading some years back that immigrants now skip immigration hubs like NYC, LA and Miami all together.

What does this all mean for NYS? Due to its loss of populace, NYS will have to increase taxes to pay its civil workers who are paid nicely. Property will still go up and such. With Trump planning on cutting Planned Parenthood, the state population can see an increase of births, but again more taxes to pay for welfare, state Medicaid snap and so on. Certain industries will probably leave the upstate due to loss of population. With the decline of NYS population, by 2020 NYS will loose 2 congressional seats, therefore loosing more power and say on congressional floor. Thank goodness NY Wasp/Jew old money has lots of sway in DC.

In order for NYS to keep its current size or increase it. NYS needs to improve the states economic vitality. The state economic vitality maybe healthy to a small group of persons, like liberals, highly college educated persons and wealthy, but remember this is not the majority of New York state dwellers.
NYC itself is showing weakness in the rent declines, which suggests that NYC's population is not growing. If the city population were growing, rents would be increasing. The abundance of professional jobs is overstated, and as other articles on it have stated many of those people who move here don't find it sustainable.
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Old 12-21-2016, 01:10 PM
 
18,280 posts, read 11,673,706 times
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Rent be to darn high!


Census: NY lost more people than gained this year as of July - Capitol Confidential


NY's population falls for first time in a decade=


But seriously folks, New York State has been a basket case for decades, especially upstate.


Upstate NY began to decline as manufacturing, military and other large employers began pulling out. It says something when the largest employer in many upstate counties are prisons, which by the way often are holding people from downstate.


Climate in upstate NY is horrible for about half the year (cold to freezing, and can you say *snow*?).


New York State in general has one of if not the highest tax burdens on many levels in the country. Property, income, business, you name it and NY is in the top five in terms of high taxes. On top of taxes NY piles on various fees and surcharges upon almost anything that breathes, moves or whatever. Look at your utility and or property bills to see how often you pay the MTA.


New York is a WELFARE state, as such it cannot bring down taxes because it needs that revenue to fund the vast and extensive "safety/social" net of services or whatever that are near and dear not just to liberal/democrats but republicans in this state as well.


As boomers and their parents age people are looking to retire someplace with lower COL and taxes, but also with better quality of life including climate.


New York City while still generating jobs more and more that is coming from service/hospitality/retail and other such sectors. Even when you look at healthcare employment numbers the growth is largely in various techs/assistants than the higher paying professions such as medicine and nursing.


The middle class is fleeing and or being pushed out of NYC by high COL and taxes with what they see as very little return for their money. Public schools and other services still largely stink or at least vary by where you live. What they do see is an ever increasing number of poor (including immigrants both legal and otherwise) being well provided for by the city and state with their tax dollars.

Last edited by BugsyPal; 12-21-2016 at 01:21 PM..
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Old 12-21-2016, 02:11 PM
 
Location: NYC
11,828 posts, read 7,704,170 times
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I don't even think there's such thing as a middle class in NYC anymore or it's defined differently than national.

Most immigrants are running cash business or salary then collecting benefits and drawing free healthcare on the taxes of people making over 6 figures and increased ticketing and and tax auditing revenue.

I have a relative that runs a tax preparation business and NYC is running tax audits more frequent than ever so don't throw your 5 yr old tax returns away. They have 10-12 yrs they can back date and audit your tax return.
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Old 12-21-2016, 02:14 PM
 
18,280 posts, read 11,673,706 times
Reputation: 11912
Quote:
Originally Posted by vision33r View Post
I don't even think there's such thing as a middle class in NYC anymore or it's defined differently than national.

Most immigrants are running cash business or salary then collecting benefits and drawing free healthcare on the taxes of people making over 6 figures and increased ticketing and and tax auditing revenue.

I have a relative that runs a tax preparation business and NYC is running tax audits more frequent than ever so don't throw your 5 yr old tax returns away. They have 10-12 yrs they can back date and audit your tax return.

Yes, middle class in NYC is certainly skewed higher in terms of income than most other parts of USA.
What Is Middle Class in Manhattan? - The New York Times
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Old 12-21-2016, 02:17 PM
 
1,978 posts, read 1,237,268 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bronxguyanese View Post
What does this all mean for NYS? Due to its loss of populace, NYS will have to increase taxes to pay its civil workers who are paid nicely.
If you take a look at the latest comptroller report you would see NYC is increasing tax revenue from property tax due to real estate value appreciating and sale/use tax (increase in mortgage financing activity from real estate transactions and tourist visiting NYC). In addition, I would venture to say that due to globalization and technology advancements more people than ever before are going to be owning property in NYC who only plan to visit for short period of time throughout the year (it will most likely not show up in the statistic of migration/population movement). NYC will become more transient than it already is, with no real community feel.
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