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Old 02-21-2017, 10:05 AM
 
Location: Norfolk, VA
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Both physically and realistically. For example, physically I'm thinking at least 10 million in the city proper but realistically probably closer to 9 million, because of an already overburdened transportation system, zoning, housing costs, etc. Both numbers are conservative bets as I do not live in the city so I'm not entirely sure what could happen.

I pose this for two reasons. One, for the article linked in another thread that suggests that Brooklyn will get another 22,000 units over four years. If you look at the comment section of this article people are suggesting that you need at least 70,000 over that period to meet demand. How many new units do the five boroughs need to keep up with demand, and what does that mean for the total population of the city proper?

http://ny.curbed.com/2015/8/18/99293...e-next-4-years

Second reason; even though other cities continue to grow this has not prevented NYC from growing. For all of the observations about those that cannot afford to live in the city moving to the Southwest and the Southeast, particularly people of color, NYC continues to grow. So the city is able to replace those that have left. Would the city grow at an even faster pace were that not the case, or is this what fuels the current patterns of growth?
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Old 02-21-2017, 12:26 PM
 
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I've heard that something like 40,000 new units of housing are coming on line in NYC over the next two years. But the population growth may swallow that up very easily.

The issue is that it costs so much to build housing in NYC, that the developers are only likely to build for high end renters.

A lot of other cities are next to undeveloped unincorporated areas, and tend to annex those. NYC can't do that. Jersey isn't giving up any land. And Nassau and Westchester (both the governments and residents) would go to the mattresses before allowing themselves to be swallowed up by NYC.
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Old 02-21-2017, 01:12 PM
 
Location: New Jersey
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NYC, unlike other world cities like Tokyo, London, Paris where they are the only game in their respective countries, are in the U.S., which is vast and has lots of other alternatives. NYC won't really grow too big because there are just too many options in this country for people to go to.
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Old 02-21-2017, 01:33 PM
 
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^
I wouldn't be so sure. If that were the case, NYC wouldn't be as big and expensive as it is now.
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Old 02-21-2017, 01:39 PM
 
Location: Norfolk, VA
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BBMW View Post
I've heard that something like 40,000 new units of housing are coming on line in NYC over the next two years. But the population growth may swallow that up very easily.

The issue is that it costs so much to build housing in NYC, that the developers are only likely to build for high end renters.

A lot of other cities are next to undeveloped unincorporated areas, and tend to annex those. NYC can't do that. Jersey isn't giving up any land. And Nassau and Westchester (both the governments and residents) would go to the mattresses before allowing themselves to be swallowed up by NYC.
If I understand you correctly growth would only be for units that could accommodate those that have the income to afford it, so the reality of the situation is that the city has to continue to court high income individuals, thus the reimagining of the city into a metropolis for the rich that people always love to hate on this forum. Because anything less is not profitable for developers. There may be some mixed use/mixed income units, but even then, that is not for the poor, but the middle class that can afford those rents.

Even still, if NYC never annexes any land and continues to remain the five counties is the sky the limit, or are there practical reasons why people would be forced to look at the surrounding metro, not because of affordability, but because the city would finally run out of room to grow vertically?
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Old 02-21-2017, 02:02 PM
 
Location: Bronx
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NYC has lots of undeveloped land in Queens and the Bronx. Expansion can happen in those areas especially with the Bronx where 1/3 of the borough geographic area is made up of parkland. NYC can no longer expand outward and can only go up vertically. Even though NYC will be the nations most populous city for decades to come, other cities such as LA and Houston are far larger in footprint than NYC and can incorporate room for growth.
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Old 02-21-2017, 02:09 PM
 
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Just did a bit of math. If All five boroughs had the same population density as manhattan, it would be 21.85 million people. (using the table from here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Borough_(New_York_City) )

For comparison, if all five boroughs had the density of staten island, it would be 2.46 million.
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Old 02-21-2017, 02:28 PM
 
Location: Norfolk, VA
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Originally Posted by iammax View Post
Just did a bit of math. If All five boroughs had the same population density as manhattan, it would be 21.85 million people. (using the table from here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Borough_(New_York_City) )

For comparison, if all five boroughs had the density of staten island, it would be 2.46 million.
That is a lot, no matter how you look at it. Even if all five boroughs had the density of Staten Island, you would still need a core, so I would think that it would be higher than 2.46 million, only because the density would be far greater at the core.

What's interesting is how other metropolitan areas are getting along with multiple urban cores here and there. Atlanta and Los Angeles are the best examples I can think of. But with those high density, vertical areas come higher rents. I would imagine that the same thing would happen in the outer boroughs when this occurs in NYC.

On the other hand, if the city itself was the core, as in 21.85 million people, then you end up with suburbs as dense as Staten Island is now. In theory; not sure how that would play out, or if that is even environmentally feasible.
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Old 02-21-2017, 02:30 PM
 
Location: Norfolk, VA
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Originally Posted by Bronxguyanese View Post
NYC has lots of undeveloped land in Queens and the Bronx. Expansion can happen in those areas especially with the Bronx where 1/3 of the borough geographic area is made up of parkland. NYC can no longer expand outward and can only go up vertically. Even though NYC will be the nations most populous city for decades to come, other cities such as LA and Houston are far larger in footprint than NYC and can incorporate room for growth.
That's a lot of parkland. Not necessarily a bad thing though you can experience nature right in the city, and you don't have to go elsewhere to see it.
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Old 02-21-2017, 02:31 PM
 
Location: USA
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They're building all those apartments for the rich, because jobs are scarce for everyone else.
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