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Old 05-18-2017, 09:05 AM
 
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recessions have always been part of the business cycle and no party has been able to repeal it
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Old 05-18-2017, 09:31 AM
 
Location: Manhattan
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There is no place else but equities and real estate to park money. The illicit goal of the Fed is to inflate the prices of stocks and real estate. "When it goes, it's goin' like Elsie."
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Old 05-19-2017, 03:35 AM
 
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it may never go!. i have been an investor and still waiting for it to go ever since the crash of 1987 .

we dip for a short period of time and on and on we go to higher highs and higher lows . even the great depression recovered in dollar terms in 4-1/2 years .

could it one day stay depressed for decades ? sure it could but by that time you likely grew enough of a cushion ignoring the noise and investing than you would lose .

as peter lynch said " more money has been given up or lost in preparation or anticipation of the next downturn than has been lost in any downturn ." it is always bad investor behavior that has done someone in , not markets .
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Old 05-19-2017, 07:14 AM
 
Location: Manhattan
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
it may never go!. i have been an investor and still waiting for it to go ever since the crash of 1987 .

.

Ahhh, my finest day. I was 100% invested in PUTS via partner's IRA, and once I was able to get through to my broker, we made a bundle...with no tax consequences.


Alas I am DOA now. I wanted to go full long into the market March 2010...and didn't. I missed the biggest opportunity of my life.
We are just too old to take any risks so I have us 100% in pathetic bank CD's and some old I-bonds and older EE bonds.


Knowing me, had I gone all in in 2010 I'd have bailed out with several frights since.


But the next downturn will be a doozy that may last decades. The pain will be having to listen to those loudmouths who will deny it is happening WHILE it is happening.
This "boom" is not real and is fueled 100% by borrowing to stimulate asset prices. That's illusory growth, aka inflation.
I am toying with dipping a couple toes into Put options again. I have the same gut feeling I had in 1987.

Last edited by Kefir King; 05-19-2017 at 07:23 AM..
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Old 05-19-2017, 07:16 AM
 
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the hedge fund manager my daughter inlaw works for became famous when in 1987 he made 100 million for his clients in one day bettin against the japanese Nikkei index
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Old 05-19-2017, 07:33 AM
 
Location: Manhattan
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With me it was puts in individual blue chip stocks like Borg-Warner, Chrysler, AT&T, Ford, etc. Had it crashed one day earlier (before the triple witching day when a lot of my options expired) I'd have made a million. But I made out very well.


Of course, trying to get my broker caused a near nervous breakdown. I think I lost 10 pounds that week. I just don't have the stomach for that kind of "action." Worse now...I am totally risk averse. But there is probably truth to "No pain no gain" in investing just as in bodybuilding.


Back to the original question: I think this so-called "Trump rally" will end with the "Trump resignation."
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Old 05-19-2017, 12:16 PM
 
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jeremy siegel predicts we can see a 1000 point gain without trump , as the platform is a republican thing not a trump thing .

he is a loose cannon and jeremy i think is correct . wall street may be a lot happier without the fear of nuclear war .
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Old 05-19-2017, 01:05 PM
 
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The Trump "crash" seems to have been a one day event.
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Old 05-19-2017, 01:29 PM
 
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which is why reacting to this daily news is a losers game .
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Old 05-19-2017, 01:41 PM
 
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It's going to shoot up when he resigns or is impeached
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