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We have learned this through the history of financial crisis. But afterwards blame is always placed on central bankers and their cartel, so government uses this to rally up the people to oppose handing more power to the banking system. Please explain to us what a brilliant mind is. And yes, I am in first place in one of my fantasy football leagues.
BTW...all the charts you posted yourself were done after the fact as well. You need to stop using that as an excuse to not engage in dialogue.
You learned and believed one interpretation of what happened, I think this is pretty clear. It’s hard to discern how accurate these hypothetical alternative routes would have panned out.
You learned and believed one interpretation of what happened, I think this is pretty clear. It’s hard to discern how accurate these hypothetical alternative routes would have panned out.
How do you think it would have panned out under my scenario? A recession for sure. But worse than what we had and may still see?
being an arm chair economist wanna be is easy , when you monday morning quarter back and judge what everyone else did .
the reality is these kind of things like the events in 2008-2009 are impossible to pass judgement on .
like taking medicine when your sick. you never know if the medicine made you better or you just got better on your own .
one thing is certain ,while we are not in great shape we are a whole lot less bad .
those with 401k's and invested assets are breaking new highs .
i am retired now and are higher than almost 3 years ago before spending down for 3 years .
most folks are not facing mass layoffs . many folks are even doing very nicely . i know all our kids and their spouses are .
there are jobs being offered all over and many are good ones at that .
i have been actually busier than i bargained for in retirement doing my corporate training gig just because so many newbees are being hired .
so there is no question we are a whole lot less bad and quite frankly i don't care to monday morning quarter back as to why .
Where do all your kids and spouses live?
What is the difference between an armchair wannabe economist and an economist from a top university?
These things are meant to be discussed and learned from. We can't always hide behind ignorance. And we certainly can't pass all beliefs and forms of thought to the ivy tower economist.
we have kids in the boroughs , new jersey and westchester .
there is no way to predict the effects of anything in advance . the same situation has typically played out differently the next time it happens .
everyone has opinions after the fact but no one has the powers to know the outcome .
case in point , fed is raising short term rates for a year and markets are doing just fine . s&p 500 up over 14% ytd , nasdaq up almost 22% , the dow up in record territory and bonds are up in positive territory with the us bond index up 3% . long treasury bond index up 7% .
last december the talking heads predicted lights out on asset gains with the feds rate hikes .
anyone who claims they know what the effect of fed policy will be is going to most likely be quite wrong as things not even on the radar take hold and alter what seems to be a given . .
we have kids in the boroughs , new jersey and westchester .
there is no way to predict the effects of anything in advance . the same situation has typically played out differently the next time it happens .
Like ourselves, they kept put were the money is being accumulated.
I'm in partial agreement to the current practices of the ECB. Let's see how that turns out. Unfortunately they are going up against some very one-sided non-open minded government powers.
personally i have no opinion on the fed or the ecb . i am a show me the results guy .
i have never let politics or fed policy influence my course of long term action , not in more than 30 years .
once you start trying to react to this crap you may as well throw in the towel as it is always the things not even on the radar that alter the course of the most apparent outcome .
will the markets fall at some point ? for sure , like night follows day they always do . but in relatively short periods of time they tend to come back too . if you are investing with long term money than temporary short term dips are just speed bumps . they mean zilch .
if the money is not long term money than you have a bad plan and mismatched money to time frames - your own fault if you did poorly .
there is a difference between poor planning and bad plans vs bad markets . in fact you would be hard pressed to find any diversified funds that have lost a dollar of any ones money since markets are higher than ever . so there is only poor investor decisions ,plans and mistakes .
lack of staying the course , trying to outsmart the markets thinking you know better and mis matching money to the time frames are what loses money .
Last edited by mathjak107; 10-01-2017 at 07:45 AM..
Like ourselves, they kept put were the money is being accumulated.
I'm in partial agreement to the current practices of the ECB. Let's see how that turns out. Unfortunately they are going up against some very one-sided non-open minded government powers.
the company i do some work for has hired almost 200 additional people in long island ,ohio ,jersey , ct, florida , buffalo ,rochchester ,auburn ,sytacuse and binghampton since 2008 and is still actively hiring all positions .
this is a private company owned by 1 man that went from 20 million in sales in 2008 to 100 million today
i speculate very little . that trading list i posted is just for fun .
my serious money never speculates , it is invested in diversified funds . you do know there is a big difference between speculating and investing i hope .
speculating is when you hope to beat the market or asset classes at their own game reaping higher rewards or losses than those assets do collectively .
investing is when you buy diversified assets and accept whatever returns those assets give you without trying to beat what they do passively . some may weight a little more in one area and less in another to gain some alpha but basically you will be very close to just passive index's over time .
my seat of the pants trading is SPECULATING
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