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Old 07-08-2018, 08:26 AM
 
Location: Midtown
1,302 posts, read 746,007 times
Reputation: 915

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*sigh*

Well for one with scratch tickets I would check the winner status before buying. If my choices are between a collection of similar value tickets I'll pick the ones where nobody has won the jackpot prize yet.
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Old 07-08-2018, 09:46 AM
 
Location: Manhattan
20,134 posts, read 26,416,255 times
Reputation: 9029
If you want to play a lark and go for a very slim chance at the hold ring, spend the discretionary $2 on the Mega Millions game: the prize is $310 Million. At least that will get you a couple days of very pleasant dreams.
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Old 07-08-2018, 10:04 AM
 
1,063 posts, read 323,221 times
Reputation: 1423
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kefir King View Post
If you want to play a lark and go for a very slim chance at the hold ring, spend the discretionary $2 on the Mega Millions game: the prize is $310 Million. At least that will get you a couple days of very pleasant dreams.
The odds of winning that is zero. Plus you get no consolation prize for playing (i.e.- Quick pick)

Why don't people get this? The general strategy is to start small on the easily winnable games that have less competition and either check out at a lower payout or reinvest earnings into the higher payout games.

You buy $20 you win $40
You buy $40 you win $80
You buy $80 you win $800.
You buy $800 and so on....until you win $80K
Rinse and repeat.

The people who lose the most money play the number games and spend $800 that year when for the same $800 in scratch offs you could have at least broken even most likely.

My theory is the scratch offs have the best return on investment because things can be tracked like store inventory trends. There can be a winnable system because certain variables are stagnant.

The question is are there any other scratch off games similar to Take 5 with a low payout and good odds.

The Win for Life games in my experience have very bad returns.
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Old 07-08-2018, 01:45 PM
 
Location: In the heights
20,113 posts, read 21,729,745 times
Reputation: 10216
Quote:
Originally Posted by MechaMan View Post
The odds of winning that is zero. Plus you get no consolation prize for playing (i.e.- Quick pick)

Why don't people get this? The general strategy is to start small on the easily winnable games that have less competition and either check out at a lower payout or reinvest earnings into the higher payout games.

You buy $20 you win $40
You buy $40 you win $80
You buy $80 you win $800.
You buy $800 and so on....until you win $80K
Rinse and repeat.

The people who lose the most money play the number games and spend $800 that year when for the same $800 in scratch offs you could have at least broken even most likely.

My theory is the scratch offs have the best return on investment because things can be tracked like store inventory trends. There can be a winnable system because certain variables are stagnant.

The question is are there any other scratch off games similar to Take 5 with a low payout and good odds.

The Win for Life games in my experience have very bad returns.
Okay, point to a single scratch off game currently out that actually has an expected value that you can rely on for a return of investment if you "do it right."

If it exists, then the agency doing it is pretty idiotic.

You may just have a loose understanding of how probabilities work.
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Old 07-08-2018, 04:34 PM
 
9,953 posts, read 8,441,593 times
Reputation: 5826
Let's face it, the lottery in any form is a waste of money. Having said that, I will occasionally play the big jackpot games when they get to really big numbers. That threshold is now $300 million. As they jack up the odds, I raise my threshold.
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Old 07-08-2018, 06:01 PM
 
1,063 posts, read 323,221 times
Reputation: 1423
Quote:
Originally Posted by BBMW View Post
Let's face it, the lottery in any form is a waste of money. Having said that, I will occasionally play the big jackpot games when they get to really big numbers. That threshold is now $300 million. As they jack up the odds, I raise my threshold.
This is EXACTLY the type of guy they make their money off of!

The "occasional" powerball player. Multiply this guy by 30 mil spending 10 each and There ya go!!!

The casual players win nothing. Just like any other Investment you gotta be in it to win it and have skin in the game.

How many lotto winners won on the 1st go around?

Most of them are veteran regulars spending at least $1k a year (but not strategically)

And that's the whole point. Let's get strategic. Are there no gamblers or statisticians on this forum
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Old 07-08-2018, 06:25 PM
 
9,953 posts, read 8,441,593 times
Reputation: 5826
The fact that you use the term's "strategic" and "lottery" in the same sentence means you don't know your a$$ from a hole on the ground. Lotteries have the worst EV of any firm of gambling. Want to gamble "strategically"? Learn to play poker, learn to count cards in blackjack (although this might get you tossed from the cssino.) There are even advantage play methods with craps. But the lottery? No pucking wsy.
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Old 07-09-2018, 05:50 AM
 
118 posts, read 84,209 times
Reputation: 22
Quote:
Originally Posted by MechaMan View Post
Thanks for the link but my grandfather (RIP) and grandmother are both very good at gambling in general.

My grandfather came out 100k ahead over his lifetime in Atlantic city. I'd say that's pretty contrary to what the theory states so certainly we have some exceptions.

My grandmother also came out 75k ahead at around 75 years old but she squandered the winnings on frivolous purchases. Purely off scratch offs.

Either way there is a method to the madness that can be figured out strategically. Our family "luck" is not significantly better than anyone else's.
An older Oriental Lady told me the best place to buy scratch offs is in Chinatown because they buy so many,
its not my thing but hey you never know
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Old 07-09-2018, 06:34 AM
 
Location: Manhattan
20,134 posts, read 26,416,255 times
Reputation: 9029
Quote:
but hey you never know

Thing is that, yeah, we DO know.
And we are trying to explain it to Mecha Man but he thinks he knows better...he doesn't.
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Old 07-09-2018, 07:36 AM
 
Location: Brooklyn
728 posts, read 493,049 times
Reputation: 907
I initially thought this was poking fun at the housing Lottery threads...but now I'm not even sure if OP is serious or not.

Simply put, aside from sheer crazy luck, there is statistically no way you would even come close to breaking even on any type of lotto game in the long run.
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