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If you pay close attention you will gain valuable knowledge from common blue collar workers as myself invested and many of those who make a living in the real estate market. My livelihood was based on my profession far removed from real estate unlike a realtor making a living offering his invaluable opinion on when or when not to. He is married to his work as I was to mine. He will offer you the opinion that will benefit his investment such as I would point you to my company for services. I am blessed to have helped friends purchase homes without the aid of a realtor. In all fairness there is no right or wrong. In the end if you are happy with your million dollar purchase for 1500 square feet of living space, no driveway and high property taxes or a $800,000 purchase for 4000 square feet feet of living space, parking for 5 cars and lower taxes then so be it. I played the waiting game which requires many many untold investment hours. It's no different then setting a trap and waiting patiently for it to spring rather unlike other hunters that walk away pompous in stature and come back the next day to collect the evening meal. Sometimes the best kept secret is to know where to set it. Best wishes to all. Happy House Hunting.
Don't know your background or history, but your experience, humility and wisdom is an asset here on this board.
I have been playing the waiting game for some time and prices definitely have been falling throughout the tri-state area despite what my agents have been telling me, urging me to splurge NOW giving every excuse as to why prices "might" be falling. I at most may wait another year (I've been looking since late 2016 when prices were at their highest).
Don't know your background or history, but your experience, humility and wisdom is an asset here on this board.
I have been playing the waiting game for some time and prices definitely have been falling throughout the tri-state area despite what my agents have been telling me, urging me to splurge NOW giving every excuse as to why prices "might" be falling. I at most may wait another year (I've been looking since late 2016 when prices were at their highest).
I second this and commend Mr. Retired for his posts. He is truly an asset for this community. I also agree that it might be prudent to wait it out to see how things evolve in the economy. While waiting for a crash may not materialize, there are many economic events on the horizon (yield curve inversion, trade wars etc.) to give pause to any would be homebuyer.
The only caveat that I would add relates to a personal circumstance (baby on the way, losing rental housing etc.) that compels you to proceed with the purchase. Entry point in real estate matters. If you look at neighborhood by neighborhood pricing from 1999-2001 you will see a run up in the market, slight dip in the post 2008 recession period and then newer highs. There are a number of factors contributing to the resiliency of the New York City market, most of which has to do with NYC’s location as an economic engine and the desirability of the City, boosting demand. These factors may shift in the future. Don’t get me wrong NYC real estate will always have a premium, however to count on relentless, never ending appreciation without any dips is foolish.
Opinion:
I have offered this opinion to friends prior to joining this site.
Back in 2018 I stated prices will begin to drop by 2020.
They have already saved between $100,00 and $200,000 in home purchases.
In the 70's blue collar pay was 7 times minimum wage.
Blue Collar pay scale today is less than 3 times the minimum wage.
Real Estate has started rolling down hill two years ago. If you have a few bucks
or have time to save now is the perfect opportunity. Severe drops soon to follow.
Let the market return to realistic prices by sitting it out .You will save even more.
The city is in a multi billion dollar deficit and will impact higher priced home purchases.
Pay close attention to the old folks ready to pack it in. This will be the best buys.
The retirees are leaving and a few hi tech wages can only afford to buy them.
The city has too many poorer people.The market is slowly returning to the buyer
with a few bucks saved regardless of all other opinions.
The market will drop for overvalued properties. I don't think it will have an impact on undervalued properties because even the lowest priced properties are difficult to afford. Instead, you will see things even out a little more.
If maintenance wasn't so high, I'd have bought in the Bronx. If it has a maint of over $700, I need it to cost less than $250k. If it has a maint of over $1k, I'm not going to touch it with a 10 ft pole. The only way I'd budge on that is Mitchel Llama since the buy in is so low.
I have some hope that prices fall to what I consider reasonable, but I have high doubt. In the very least though, the down payment is ready. The market returned much more than property has appreciated, to which I can basically say: the math was right.
Doesn't it depend on what the maintenance covers? Most of the Bronx has free electric. Other coops do not. (It's not really free, it's included in the maintenance. But the salient part is that you don't have to do your envelope math and account for mortgage, maintenance AND utilities.)
And most of the timei it’s the dumbest calculation. At least in my 50 years of NYC real estate hunting.
I have numerous friends who have been waiting and talking about how cool and smart it is to wait since 2008. It hasn’t worked to their favor at all either in prices or the horrendous hundreds of thousands they have shelled out in rent while waiting.
It seems like there has been a substantial group of these market timers during every NYC real estate epoch I have witnessed since the 70’s . In the end it never seems to work for most of them. Market timing doesn’t seem to work for most in the stock market either.
Especially when interest rates on 30 year fixed loans are 3.5 percent. I even calculated doing a refi but realized the fees and saving aren't worth it for me because my mortgage rate is already low. (Rule of thumb is 2-3% interest differential, mine is less.)
Don't know your background or history, but your experience, humility and wisdom is an asset here on this board.
I have been playing the waiting game for some time and prices definitely have been falling throughout the tri-state area despite what my agents have been telling me, urging me to splurge NOW giving every excuse as to why prices "might" be falling. I at most may wait another year (I've been looking since late 2016 when prices were at their highest).
Thank you for those kind words.
This is not a game for all to play.
But the facts are the city is in a mutlibillion dollar hole. Too few people making lots of money to afford big money
homes and the Fed just considering that we may be entering another recession............writing on the wall?
There is no guarantee but one thing is for sure. If you buy knowing you paid to much you will always be stuck
with that thought of paying to much waiting to recover and profit compared to knowing you saved 10,20,100 or 200
grand and eventually reflecting back with a smile.
To compare home prices you have to look at comparable sales to get a real picture.
In many areas of Manhattan, Brooklyn and some other parts of city numbers are skewed due to new product coming online. Thus it might be existing housing is selling a lower asking prices, but the new stuff is meeting their numbers.
I’m still having a hard time understanding why far to reach places that aren’t open to many people are expensive?
I’m talking about SouthEast Queens, Southeasr Brooklyn, Most of Staten Island and most of The Bronx.
Who are the buyers buying up these homes allowing these prices to stick?
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