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I read that article in the NY Times and I thought I was reading an article written by a HS kid. It was really ridiculous, "And the reason I believe this will work is because..." It was like an SAT essay...and a bad one at that.
As I stated earlier, "Es Gibt kein problem" ....there really is no problem, the oil "problems" have already been solved with electric cars, wind power, solar panels, hydrogen cars, the internet, gas is just .20 a mile, etc.
It's all just our imagination..everything is just fine. Really.
I read that article in the NY Times and I thought I was reading an article written by a HS kid. It was really ridiculous, "And the reason I believe this will work is because..." It was like an SAT essay...and a bad one at that.
As I stated earlier, "Es Gibt kein problem" ....there really is no problem, the oil "problems" have already been solved with electric cars, wind power, solar panels, hydrogen cars, the internet, gas is just .20 a mile, etc.
It's all just our imagination..everything is just fine. Really.
What a childish response. Of course there is a problem, but it is not confined to the suburbs. The city of Cincinnati just told there cops to park there cars 30 minutes out of every hour to conserve gas. That means less patrol coverage.
If you think our current gas problem is confined to the suburbs, you need to start looking at how many city dwellers are feeling the pinch as well. Many Manhattan workers, whether they are city residents or suburban residents are going to get laid off in our slowing economy, and gas prices are going to play a big role in slowing it and costing these people their jobs.
Who pays the diesel bill on city buses? How long do you think the MTA is going to be able to keep fares down in the face of $140 oil? How long can the city keep taxes low as they pay to fuel their police cars, fire trucks, ambulances, garbage trucks, etc EVERY DAY!!!
Everyone agrees there is a problem. The questions are 1) how acute is the problem right now and in the near-future for suburbanites, 2) is the problem any less acute for city dwellers, 3) how long-term is the problem, 4) what are the solutions? You didn't create a post asking if there was a crisis. You created a post stating as a fact that the crisis had made life in the burbs unaffordable--and implying that cities had no problem. On both of those counts, you're totally wrong.
Back to the commuting question, I realized that if I drove to White Plaines daily instead of taking the train to Manhattan to work I would save aprox $160 a month. The extra money I would spend on gas would be much, much less than what I spend on parking, the train, and the subway. As I said before, my income is average for where I live, so those people who live where I do in the northern burbs who have to drive 15 miles each way to work our not hurting financially--they're doing better than those of us who use the train. The train is better for the planet than driving, but it is harder on the wallet. Sad.
Last edited by Viralmd; 07-11-2008 at 06:12 AM..
Reason: Rude
I'm just jumping into this thread, skimmed most of what was written before.
What is happening in the suburbs right now is the start of a trend that is only going to continue. This is just the beginning. I'm surprised no one has mentioned the documentary The End of Suburbia?
The full film is available by the film makers on YouTube.
You can also Netflix it. It was released in 2004. I purchased a copy of it back then on DVD which I still own.
The premise of the film is pretty simple: The suburbs are a living arrangement which were made possible by the availability of cheap energy in the form of oil. We're now coming upon a period where the energy is no longer going to be cheap, and as a result the suburbs will no longer be a viable living arrangement.
Energy is a passion of mine. I became aware of Peak Oil in early 2004 and I've been reading up on it ever since. I own many books on the subject. It's my world view. I've been a bike commuter since 2004 also, putting in roughly 80 - 100 miles per week.
A few facts about oil for you to consider.
At one point the United States was the world's largest oil producer, but ever since 1970 oil production in the US has been in decline. Despite the use of the most sophisticated technology in the world, oil production in the US continues to decline.
Discovery of new oil fields globally peaked in the mid 1960's. We've been finding less and less oil in the world ever since.
Since the mid 1980's the world has been consuming more oil than it finds every year. Right now we only find one barrel of oil for roughly every 4 we consume. Obviously this cannot continue forever.
In 1999 Dick Cheney gave a speech in which he said that by 2010, the world had to find 50 million barrels per day of new production to keep up with demand for oil. That's equivalent to roughly six Saudi Arabia's (the world's largest oil producer) worth of production. We're less than 2 years shy of 2010 now, and since 1999 the world hasn't discovered that 50mpb of new production. We haven't even come close. Surprise! Now demand is outpacing supply, which is why you have been seeing this steady rise in prices over the last few years. T Boone himself gave an interview a couple of weeks ago in which he said the reason for price right now is very simple. "You have demand at 87 mpd but supply is only 85mpd. If you put a speculator in there, what can he do? Nothing. It's supply and demand."
It takes roughly 4 or 5 years on average to put a new oil field into production after you find it, so the supply picture for the next couple of years can be pretty well forecast. All you have to do is look at how much oil supply you have coming online from new fields, and subtract decreasing supply from old fields that have gone into decline.
It doesn't look pretty. Some of the world's largest oil fields have gone into decline in recent years. In 2005 the world's 2nd and 3rd largest fields went into decline. One of those two fields is in Mexico, and right now the decline rate is in excess of 15%. That is huge. The Mexican state oil company itself is saying that possibly as early as 2011 Mexico wont be able to export oil anymore. Even if you ignore the implications on oil prices for that (the US gets a lot of oil from Mexcio) there are going to be huge implications for Mexico. The Mexican government gets half of its budget from oil revenue. Soon that will be gone.
As for alternatives - yeah, they're out there. But people speak of that as if they will be able to completely replace oil at a moment's notice and allow us to go on with our happy motoring way of life uninterrupted if we hit problems with oil supply. Sorry, doesn't work that way. The alternatives aren't ready for prime time yet. Experts who have really looked at it say we will need a good 10 - 15 years of serious investment before alternatives will be able to replace a significant portion of our oil needs. And if we wait until we hit problems with oil before we start making those investments, then we have guaranteed ourselves a liquid fuel shortage lasting at least 20 years (check out the Hirsch report prepared for the department of energy a couple of years ago).
The key thing to remember here is that oil isn't going to run out. We still have just as much of it in the ground as we've pumped out in the last 100+ years. But the difference is that now it's much harder and more expensive to pump the oil out than it has been in the past, which means oil becomes less important to our civilization as an energy source. We've waited too long to get serious about alternatives (we're still not serious) and as a result we're going to pay. The transition from oil to alternatives is not going to be a smooth one, and the growing problems in suburbia are just the first sign of it.
When I talked to people about $100 a barrel oil and $4 a gallon gasoline 4 years ago I was literally laughed at. Now they're talking about the possibility of $5 a gallon gas in the mainstream news. What they don't talk about in the mainstream news is the very real possibility of spot shortages in the near future. People complain now about the high price of gasoline but they still pay it. What's going to happen when you pull up into the station and can't buy that gas at any price?
We can debate the merits of the suburbs and whether they're good or not, but the fact of the matter is they're not going to be the preferred living arrangement of choice anymore because of rising energy costs. Obviously they're not going anywhere either and people will still be living in them in the future, but if you want to find the slums in America 10 - 20 years from now, you'll find them in the suburbs, and not the inner cities.
As some have already pointed out in the thread I'm well aware that not all suburbs are created equal. The burbs that were created earlier in the industrial revolution that are closest to the cities wont fair so bad at all. Public transit there is already available to some degree or can be created fairly rapidly when the need arises. But the far out suburbs that have been made more and more since the 70's are really and truly screwed.
Sorry for the long post. I realize that what I'm saying is controversial. But if you disagree with me that's no need to get mad at me. I'm happy to discuss our energy crisis and its implications for our society in a civil manner. If you strongly disagree with me and think I'm a kook feel free to put me on ignore. I don't come to this site often but I'll try to check in on this thread and respond to anyone who has responded to me.
The questions are 1) how acute is the problem right now and in the near-future for suburbanites, 2) is the problem any less acute for city dwellers, 3) how long-term is the problem, 4) what are the solutions?
1. Right now the problem is not too acute, but it only gets worse as we look forward into the future. Within the next two years I expect to see the price of gasoline to rise to $6/$7 a gallon at least. The possibility of shortages is also very real. It only gets worse the farther out you look.
2. For city dwellers the problem is less acute but it's still there. Rising energy costs are affecting everything in the economy. City dwellers don't have to deal with paying for the long drives suburbanites do, but they still feel the pinch in other ways.
3. The length of the problem is indefinite. It's barely gotten started.
4. We could start by acknowledging the real problem. We cannot continue to exponentially grow our use of a non renewable resource and expect to not encounter any problems. Actually, on a planet with finite resources (like Earth) we cannot exponentially grow anything! Why is it that people recognize we can't grow the human population forever, but we run our whole society thinking we can grow the economy forever?
After acknowledging we have a problem, the very first thing we should do is figure out how much oil we have left globally. In the US supply figures are well known but in many other countries (like Russia and Saudi Arabia) the details on oil supply are state secrets. OPEC nations put out numbers but there is no way to verify if they're true. Actually, there is good evidence that nations like Saudi arabia are greatly exaggerating how much oil they have.
Second, we need to change our fractional reserve monetary system. Kind of a long story on that one.
After that, we need to give up our love affair with cars. Especially here in the United States. Right now the whole discussion on energy centers around "How are we going to keep the cars running on some source of energy other than oil?" Automobiles are highly energy intensive. If we recognized that it would be much easier to meet our energy needs if we shifted to more efficient means of transit we'd be so much better off.
After that everything else is obvious. Investment in renewable alternative forms of energy and mass transit, conservation, etc.
I'm really pessimistic about the prospects of us doing any of those things until circumstances compel us to do so.
NativeBronx, at the end of the day, this energy problem is going to ruin life in America--Urban-America, Suburban-America, and Rural-America. Sure, we can offer the simple solution of moving even more people into our cities, but economically we will still be hurting, and masses of financially struggling people living in a densely populated setting is not a life ANY of us want as it creates HUGE social problems--and cash-strapped gov'ts won't have the $$$ to fund social programs to deal with those problems.
Cities burn a lot of oil providing for essential services. Those Garbage trucks, fire trucks and ambulances and buses are fuel hogs. Also, America burns oil to generate electricity at oil-fired power plants.
My point all along has been that we need to start using alternative-fuels (wind, solar, non-food biofuels, electric cars, nuke plants) Imagine NYC's aforementioned large vehicles running on BioDiesel or all electric. Imagine how much money NYC would be saving right now in fuel. Imagine how much worse it's going to be for NYC when gas is $7 a gallon--and then remember that as fuel prices rise, the economy tanks further meaning NYC collects LESS tax money. Rising costs and falling tax receipts cannot be maintained in the longterm.
Expensive oil-dependency is going to ruin America. Adopting the many different energy-alternatives will lift-up ALL of America, city and burbs and farm-country alike.
NativeBronx..I could not have said it any better than you did. The point is not that suburbs are going to be the only ones hit, it is that they are gonna be the HARDEST hit, and will accelerate the anecdotal trend to the city as of late, leaving MANY suburbs looking like many inner cities in the 70s. Do we KNOW this will happen, heck no. Is it likely? I say yes.
NativeBronx, at the end of the day, this energy problem is going to ruin life in America--Urban-America, Suburban-America, and Rural-America.
I don't disagree with this. This is what it all boils down to. No matter how we address this problem, the end result is going to be a dramatic decline in the standard of living for the average American. Our happy motoring days are over. The age of excess and consumption are over. It's not the end of the world. It's just the end of an energy intensive way of life that we have grown accustomed to.
Quote:
My point all along has been that we need to start using alternative-fuels (wind, solar, non-food biofuels, electric cars, nuke plants) Imagine NYC's aforementioned large vehicles running on BioDiesel or all electric. Imagine how much money NYC would be saving right now in fuel.
There are a multitude of problems with alternatives. They are characterized primarily by a poor rate of energy returned on energy invested (energy profit ratio), and an inability to scale them up to levels necessary to seriously offset our fossil fuel usage. Right now renewable energy accounts for approximately 1% of our total energy usage.
In regards to running NYC's public service vehicles on BioDiesel or electric, it's a fine idea in theory but it runs into practical problems when you try to scale it up. We probably could run NYC's public vehicles on those fuels. But could we transfer the entire US automotive fleet to run on them(as the mainstream media continually suggests)? Nope. Bio Fuels (glad that you specifically said non food biofuels) in general have a very modest energy profit ratio. In some cases (like corn based ethanol) they actually have a negative energy profit ratio. That means it takes more energy to make the ethanol than you get from using the ethanol. Other biofuels (switch grass, seaweed, etc.) have potential but there simply isn't enough land to grow enough of it to replace what we are using right now with oil.
Electric cars work but they have problems of scale also. What happens to the electric grid when you have everyone plugging their car into their garage over night to recharge it? Where is all that electricity production going to come from? We could make it, but that kind of change doesn't take place overnight - it takes years.
The point is not that suburbs are going to be the only ones hit, it is that they are gonna be the HARDEST hit, and will accelerate the anecdotal trend to the city as of late, leaving MANY suburbs looking like many inner cities in the 70s. Do we KNOW this will happen, heck no. Is it likely? I say yes.
We could debate the specifics but in general I feel confident saying that we DO know it is going to happen. I hold to my prediction that in the not too distant future residents of the suburbs will be the poorest people in America.
The fact that there is a group of elitist city dwellers who are desperately hoping that all suburbs perish doesn't actually sway me. I grew up in Brooklyn back when the general wisdom was that all cities were about to disappear forever--and we see how that prediction turned out! At the time, the common perception in the media and mass culture was that no one but the poor and drug-addicted lived in cities and that the entire middle class population spent their time cowering in fear behind dead-bolted doors hiding from the rampaging predators on the street. In fact, I was having a perfectly nice childhood in a perfectly nice place.
Today is the same thing, only now city folk like to think that the burbs are dying when in fact life in my neck of the woods has actually gotten much better in the last few years--more restaurants opening, more new gourmet food stores, more artists moving in and bringing cool coffee houses, live music, art film centers, etc. If I didn't read the Times, I'd think the area was thriving.
Part of the problem with the debate is that the anit-burb people use the term "suburbs" indiscriminately. The areas that have faced hardship due to energy prices are generally out in the west, where developments have sprawled and people live 75 miles from work and have no light rail or means of commuting other than driving. This has little resemblance to the suburbs of NYC, where most of us live close to amenities and have access to an excellent commuter rail system.
I'm not going to repeat all of the things I've written before, but I will state that I think that NativeBronxite's prediction is totally and completely off. As I've said, the burbs are already adapting and will continue to adapt--as will the cities--and will be the better for it.
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