First Signs of Crumbling Suburbs are here. (Union, Gates: middle-class, rent)

[Guywithacause]

Yes...it is really elitist city dwellers that are driving the prices of oil through the roof, gas to $7 a gallon, doubling electric rates, increases in food costs, rents, housing prices, slashing jobs and raising air travel. We are just discussing the reality of the siutation, ...not changing the world in an insidious plot to run suburbs into the ground. The only thing that will sway you, and sways 99% of the population, is money. And as the costs to heat/cool your single family detached home, maintain your yard, maintain/repair your home, RE Taxes, car insurance, gas, never ending car payments, and traffic/congestion all increase precipitously, you too will be swayed....or maybe you won't, you'll split your home into a 2 or 3 family home, rent it out, as will others in your community to make ends meet, increasing crowding in the community, schools, stressing infrastructure, increase taxes/congestion further, and decreasing quality of life...hmm.. when/where did this process happen before and what was the outcome?

Regarding your "NativeBronxite's prediction is totally and completely off"...I did not realize you got new batteries for your crystal ball and now can see the future. 5 years ago did the crystal ball also tell you to invest in oil b/c it would be $150 a barrel? Did it tell you to invest in RE because prices would double? Did it tell you that an unknown black man from Chicago would be the Democractic nominee for president beating out the first Woman, Hillary, for the nomination that would last through June?

The reality is that we do not know what will happen 1 week from now, let alone 10 years. However, all signs point to a deterioration of the suburban lifestyle, does this mean it will happen? Heck no...but my vote is yes.

[dma1250]

I really got to stop responding to this stuff, but...

Guywith, of your list of dire predictions only gas prices has a greater impact on the suburbs than on the city. If heating and electric costs rise dramatically, guess what will happen to your monthly maintenance bill/or rent? What will happen to the millions of NYC residents living in single-family homes throughout Brooklyn, Queens, and parts of Manhattan (not to mention SI)? As said before, here in the burbs we have ways of reducing those costs--pellet stoves, solar panels, etc--that are not available to most city dwellers. Rising food costs will hit the cities as much as the burbs. So will job loss, rising costs of repair and maintenance (which you for every month pay too), rising taxes, etc. Everything you mentioned that will supposedly drive the burbs into the dust will have an equal impact on cities (except for gas). The costs of maintaining an apartment building, brownstone, detached home in Brooklyn or Queens will increase just as much as the cost of doing so in the burbs.

By the way, it is illegal to divide and rent out any portion of a single family home in the majority of NYC burbs, so that scenario is a no-go.

If everything you predict comes true, both cities and suburbs will be in for a rough time. As I said before, I grew up in NYC when it was supposedly a ghost town--if we all have to suffer through a decade of decay before solutions are found, I'd rather suffer them here than in the city.

[Guywithacause]

I have yet to mention suburbs will be driven into the dust, however will they deteriorate? I say yes, moreso than the city and the suburban lifestyle will be effected far more than those in the city. And all the pellet stoves in the world won't change that.

Regarding your assertion that it is illegal to divide a single family into multiple dwellings is true. However laws change all the time, and the dramatic cost of living in the suburbs will mean zoning law changes, community and neighborhood changes, demographic changes etc, so watch for the multiple dwelling conversions to increase.

One of the great fallacies in your argument is that we will all be suffering equally..which will not be the case. However if you believe that to be the case, you should stay put. I suspect your neighbors downsizing their homes, getting rid of their SUVs and extra cars, seeking work along public transportation routes, etc have a very different opinion about who is being most effected.

[dma1250]

You've talked to my neighbors??

I love how people who don't live here think they no more about what is happening here than the residents. If I ever see any of the things you state are already happening, I'll let you know. So far, our area is doing well--taxes actually went down this year.

Oh, and we're in the watershed so those zoning laws cannot change--the city and state DEP agencies would all need to approve the changes, as they need to approve anything that impacts density, runoff, etc, that impacts the reservoirs and the city's water.

Out of curiosity, I just called a friend living in Brooklyn and compared notes. His monthly costs are considerably higher than mine. The heating costs of his house, which granted is a bit bigger than mine, are far higher, as is his regular upkeep. His gas expenses are far lower--he just uses the car for major shopping, some trips into Manhattan, and leaving the city on weekends. But his parking costs are far higher, as is his insurance. His RE taxes have gone up a great deal in the last 2 years, and his city income tax has risen a lot too. Then there is the cost of sending his 2 kids to private school. Even if you deduct his massive mortgage payments and the private school tuition, his regular expenses are higher.

[Guywithacause]

Well I shall repeat...all of the problems we are seeing, and the rising costs, have all been a part of everyone's imagination. You have all the answers already, pellet stoves and electric cars...

[NativeBronxite]

Originally Posted by dma1250

I'm not going to repeat all of the things I've written before, but I will state that I think that NativeBronxite's prediction is totally and completely off. As I've said, the burbs are already adapting and will continue to adapt--as will the cities--and will be the better for it.

The documentary I linked to discusses the adaptation options for most of suburbia, or more appropriately, the lack thereof. Much of the suburbs here in America are so sprawled and decentralized that there really isn't much in to be done to alter them so they can continue to be a viable living arrangement in a world with declining energy resources.

The simple fact of the matter is that the rise of the suburbs was made possible by the invention of the automobile, and they are completely dependent on it. When cheap motoring for those two hour (and sometimes longer) round trip commutes isn't there anymore, the suburbs are done. You're already seeing this happen in many parts of the country with only $4 a gallon gasoline. Many suburban families are having their budgets pushed to the limit by rising fuel costs. The only "adaptation" I have yet to see being implemented so far is families cutting back on their car usage as much as possible (which isn't much), and cutting back in other areas of their budget to help pay for gasoline. What's going to happen to these same families when the price of gasoline nearly doubles from its current level?

As for pellet stoves and solar panels - do you really think these things are going to save the suburban way of life in the face of $7, $8, or $9 a gallon gasoline? Have you seen the price it costs to outfit a home with solar panels? How are suburban families going to afford them when their budgets are being pushed beyond the limit when the price of everything they buy goes through the roof due to rising oil prices? Solar panel production can't be suddenly increased exponentially overnight to meet a sudden new demand from nearly every suburban household trying to get them to cut back on costs. When solar panel production remains flat and a huge demand arises you're going to see the same supply/demand dynamic happen to them that is happening to oil. The price of solar panels is going to go sky high to keep supply and demand in balance. Can production of solar panels be ramped up to meet the demand? Sure. But that takes time. Years. And in the meantime, the standard of living suburbanites have grown accustomed to will simply evaporate.

For the record, here are the kinds of adaptations I believe you will seeing implemented in the coming years.

- mass transit will be brought in as much as possible, where possible (suburbs that are closer to cities and not too sprawled out)

- carpooling. We haven't even started this yet to any serious degree. It will go a long way towards helping suburban budgets when 4+ people are sharing the cost of a trip, rather than driving that SUV alone. Of course, this isn't going to be possible for everyone.

- more than one family living in the same house to help deal with home heating costs. Your point that renting out portions of suburban homes is possible is basically what this is. But then again, if you're going to rent, why would you rent in the suburbs when you could rent in a city or town where the high gas prices aren't much of an issue? Where this will really be coming from will be friends and extended family forced to pull together to deal with this situation, and it more than anything else will probably characterize the decline in the standard of living those who get stuck in the suburbs will have to face.


You make the point that NYC's suburbs aren't in as much trouble as the ones in other parts of the country and I agree. I've already stated that not all suburbs are created equal.

And yes, cities and towns will be facing many of the same challenges in light of increasing energy costs. But I can't believe how easily you are dismissing the addition of travel costs for the suburbs vs those of the city. When a suburbanite has to drive to get virtually everything they need paying something like $7 a gallon gas, and I can walk down the street to get virtually everything I need, who is in better shape?

[Guywithacause]

Hey dude....your posts are excellent and very well written, logical, and a good read. Nice work.

[NativeBronxite]

Don't give me too much credit. I've been having this same conversation multiple times over the course of the four years I've known about this subject.

[Guywithacause]

That makes sense...I can only imagine the name calling and utter lack of credibility you had when you spoke of such craziness as $4 gas, $150 barrels of oil, suburbs struggling, and rising costs of food here and globally.....just 4 years ago. You were probably laughed off the board....

It is a little scary that despite what is happening today, there are still those that refuse to see the truth, and basically think you are full of it. Amazing indeed.

[NativeBronxite]

Well, denial is very powerful. As the evidence mounts that this energy crisis is not going away and it's going to change the way we live in ways we don't want it to, you're going to see even greater refusals to see the truth. Americans have shown time and again that they will only be taken to conservation kicking and screaming when circumstances compel them to.

And we've been here before with the oil crisis in the 70's. If oil prices collapse (which is actually a possibility) I'm certain we'd see a repeat of the same thing. Just as quickly as hybrid cars and conservation have become fashionable, if gas went back to $1 a gallon you'd see Americans collectively say "Whew! Glad that scare is over. Now off to go buy that Hummer I've always wanted...."

We could see the price of oil collapse if its high price puts the global economy into a significant recession (or even depression). If the economy goes down, so too will demand for oil. Then the price will fall, giving the false signal that the problem is solved. But it wouldn't be, because as soon as the economy begins to recover and oil demand picks up again we'd soon hit the ceiling of production and prices would have to spike again. It would be a roller coaster, where the economy goes into a recession, oil prices dip, the economy picks up, and oil prices spike again. A series of recessions, where each successive recession is a little bit worse, and each "recovery" is weaker...

EDIT: I can only imagine how bad it was for people who have known about this for decades. The man who created the Peak Oil theory correctly predicted the peak in US production in the 1950's. At the time he was one of the most respected geologists in the US, but when he said oil would peak for us sometime between 1966 - 1971, he was universally ridiculed. His reasoning was relatively simple though. He noticed we'd been finding less and less oil since the 1930's, and we'd explored all the major oil regions in the lower 48 states already. So, eventually production had to have its own decline. And then, right on time production in the US peaked in 1970.

He also predicted when the global peak would happen. Sometime between 2000 - 2010....