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View Poll Results: In your opinion is crime citywide up or down since 2005?
Up 89 47.85%
Down 97 52.15%
Voters: 186. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 05-20-2009, 11:51 AM
 
8,752 posts, read 8,679,004 times
Reputation: 4168
The question is..what makes YOU convinced that crime is skyrocketing out of control. The facts actually support a further reduction in crime so far this year, including murders. So far this year crime is DOWN, which is simply following the decreasing, long-term crime trend over the last 20 years. What we see with these fancy headlines SO FAR is the usual hype. The papers are picking 1 stat, 12 more people assaulted (or rather REPORTING assaults) versus this time last year, and then posting a flashy headline to get people scared (to sell papers of course). However, they (and you) choose to ignore the fact that in this precinct overall crime is DOWN another -9.3% this year with Robbery down -14%, Burglary down -21%, Grand Larceny down -11%, and Rapes the same. So if you want to talk about what may or may not be a trend, the fact is crime is DOWN from last year, and the news is plucking 1 random stat to support their story of "crime is spiraling out of control" and ignoring EVERYOTHER stat, and the overall decreased crime rate for the area for that matter. It's called hype..and the reality is we are seeing a DECREASE in crime, not an increase in crime...but we ARE seeing an increase in hyped news stories. Unfortunately people read these news stories without ALL the facts, and come on these boards claiming the city is going down the toilet, when the reality is it is getting safer!

 
Old 05-20-2009, 12:00 PM
 
Location: northeast
567 posts, read 904,697 times
Reputation: 140
1.who ever said crime was "skyrocketing" out of control?
2. they do the same thing when crime goes down too. 12 less rapes/murders/thefts ex and there will be a "CRIME IN FREEFALL", "YET ANOTHER DROP IN CRIME", or "NYC SAFER THAN EVER" story on the web. and its called the same exact thing as when they exaggerate increases.....hype. it goes both ways cheif.
 
Old 05-20-2009, 12:03 PM
 
8,752 posts, read 8,679,004 times
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And since we like quoting stats or believe them when they are "going up", we should also believe them when they are going DOWN in NYC: Murder is down -21%, Rape is down -18%, Robbery is down -16%, Felony Assault is down -3%, Burglary is down -14%, Grand Larceny is down -13%, Grand Larceny Auto is down -11%. Thus the overall crime rate, vs this time last year (which was the 40+ year record low rate), is DOWN another -12%, breaking yet another record. But hey who cares about all these silly facts, let's just pick 1 random stat that has increased in one precinct (and ignore that overall crime is actually down in that precinct), use some scary words like "skyrocketing" and "whopping" and push a story about crime getting out of control! But don't take my word for the decreasing crime rate: http://www.nyc.gov/html/nypd/downloa...ics/cscity.pdf
 
Old 05-20-2009, 12:14 PM
 
Location: northeast
567 posts, read 904,697 times
Reputation: 140
i don't believe in stats either way and i only quote them because others put so much faith in them.

BTW those percentages sound like a lot. 12%, 18%, 16% ect. can you tell us how many individual crimes less that means? im guessing not alot, right? example: its easy to tout 50% decreases in murder in some nabes....until you actually look at the report and see it only fell from 2 to 1.
 
Old 05-20-2009, 12:20 PM
 
8,752 posts, read 8,679,004 times
Reputation: 4168
I agree with that GDK...and I am not one for the hype of crime going down either..but the reality is it IS going down, and there is ZERO indication that it is going any other direction besides down. As for the term "skyrocketing" you will find it in many articles when they are trying to hype a false crime spike in the city.."whopping" just happening to be the one they used in this article. The idea that crime is rising in NYC, and that cops are secretly hypnotizing us to believe NYC is crime free is false. Do cops downgrade crimes? Yes..and they do it in every city. So thats moot. Do lots of crimes go unreported? Yup..happens in every city...thats moot too. Are the stats 100% accurate? Heck no. Is crime going up? I would say after looking at all the data, and my own personal experiences, it is clearly NOT going up, and in fact going down.
 
Old 05-20-2009, 12:27 PM
 
8,752 posts, read 8,679,004 times
Reputation: 4168
I agree with that GDK...I think the raw numbers are more important than the mostly hyper percentages for all the same reasons you indicated. The raw numbers are in the link I posted, but here they are as well (they are approximate): Murder down -40, Rape down -100, Robbery down -1,100, Felony Assaults are down about -150, Burglaries are down -1,000, Grand Larceny is down -2,000, and Grand Larceny Auto is down -400. Remember these are raw numbers, not percentages....and they are substantial drops in fact.
 
Old 05-20-2009, 12:41 PM
 
Location: northeast
567 posts, read 904,697 times
Reputation: 140
there are 1000 less robberies so far this year? there were only about 24,000 robberies in 2008 though. so in about, say 15 years, there will be 0 robberies? 100 less rapes? only about 1000 in all of last year. those stats do seem off, not only because those numbers defy logic, but because if you do the math, nyc should be the safest city in the world in about two decades. lol
 
Old 05-20-2009, 12:56 PM
 
8,752 posts, read 8,679,004 times
Reputation: 4168
GDK..crime, like most things, don't just go down forever...like housing/stock prices for example. It is long term trends that matter...and they are decidedly downward. Does this mean EVER year there will be 1,000 less robberies until it eventually becomes zero? Of course not, thats silly. Robberies may go up, or down, but it is long term trends that matter..and at some point we reach "the law of diminishing returns" which basically means you get a big decrease in the beginning, and then fewer decreases as time progresses. For example, maybe there was a drop of 1,000 this year, next year might be only a drop of 900, and the following a drop of only 825, and the next year a drop of 750....although they keep dropping, the rate at which it is dropping decreases..aka diminishing returns. However, crime may be up this year, down next year, up again for 2 years, and then down again for 4 years, but what matters is that OVERALL and over the LONG TERM crime goes down. Do we expect it to be zero? NO.
 
Old 05-20-2009, 01:22 PM
 
Location: northeast
567 posts, read 904,697 times
Reputation: 140
ok, do a little more math and you get a rate of zero within the next 40-50 years. if the long term trend is downward, like you say, then it doesn't matter if it goes up some years and down other years or if the crime stops dropping as fast. because it would still be going down. a peaceful human society is impossible. i just wish more people could understand that. to begin to have an even remotely peaceful city, like tokyo or hong kong, you would need an almost homogeneous population (something nyc doesn't have). in cities like tokyo and hong kong, almost everyone has the same belief system, thus, you get relatively no crime. also, fear of execution is the result of most 'crimeless' cities like pyongyang nk. there has to be a reason why crime drops. simply saying "greater police presence" (like the nypd says) is foolish as our society has shown us...people don't care if theres a cop down the street, if they want to rob, rape, or kill you their going to do without thinking twice.
 
Old 05-20-2009, 01:33 PM
 
8,752 posts, read 8,679,004 times
Reputation: 4168
Homogenous society does not equal peaceful/safe....most contries in the world are homogenous..and most are very violent and corrupt. It is human nature....if everyone is homogenous and like crime..guess what? Lots of crime! If the country is homogenous but the government is painfully corrupt and inefficient..guess what? Lots of crime! As for your rationale for execution..I like to call that the "Mob crime-free" theory..i.e. the mob takes over a neighborhood, and for all intents and purposes it seems "safe", petty crime disappears, etc...why? Because the Mob controls all the crime...crime has not disappeared or declined...they just run it for their benefit and choose not to "sh** where they sleep." Same goes for governments that are brutal dictators...like Arab countries. The governments are the biggest criminals, and they run all the crime/executions etc...everything goes through them...victimization of women, pedophilia, etc. These are not "safe" countries, they are merely countries that governments dictate the crimes that are allowed...just like the illusion of "safety" with Mob-run neighborhoods.
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