My thoughts on gentrification (New York, Marcy: medical center, sell, Latino)

[SobroGuy]

Educate yourself about it Mastermind. And as for comparisons, it would not be Juarez, it would be Berlin after American and British forces bombed it out entirely in WW2. But let's stick to topic, it's not about me, it's about crime in NYC. And I am waiting for EVIDENCE to support your claims that crime is "ridiculously high" or increasing. Please provide.

[Viralmd]

Enough. You will have to agree to disagree or take your argument to DMs.

[KRS88]

Originally Posted by SobroGuy

Had been here in the summer? I LIVE in Mott Haven! What you are doing is simply providing anecdotal evidence, nothing more. WE KNOW THERE IS CRIME IN NYC. Nobody is arguing this point. The question is simple: Is it going up or going down? The only way to do that is NOT to just list crimes, it is to COMPARE from 5 years ago, 10 years ago, 20 years ago, etc, in order to determine the LONG TERM trends. If we simply just list crime, what does that tell us? That there is crime in NYC! You are using a 3rd graders level of analysis and reason to make a judgement about crime: "Crimes occur therefore crime is going up." WRONG.

If you want to talk about ridiculous violence, 2009 ain't it, nor is 2008, 2007, 2006, 2005..and on and on. RIDICULOUS violence was 1993, with about 2,500 murders...we are forecasted to be around 450. How can you possibly qualify 450 murders as ridiculous crime when compared to 1993? Similar drops in crime apply for all crimes across the board. Plot the dots across a spectrum and see the long term trend over the years....2009 is no different, crime is decreasing.

So again I state the long term trends show crime going downward, with the forcasted record low murder rate of about 450 (lowest in 40+ years) supporting the decreasing trend.

If you were in Mott Haven all this time Im sure you heard about all this thats going on in your community.

SEVEN PEOPLE SHOT IN SIX-HOUR SPAN IN MOTT HAVEN AREA OF THE BRONX
COPS SHOOT ARMED BRONX MAN
BRONX CAB DRIVER JOSE PENA-SEGURA WAS SHOT AND KILLED OVER DRUG DEAL GONE WRONG
Cops: AOL meeting leads to fatal stabbing
Jose Pena-Seguira Becomes 2nd NYC Cab Driver Killed In A Week
Gunplay kills mom protecting kid
Bronx man shot dead in street feud

[SobroGuy]

Thanks for the listing of crime. we know that crime exists in NYC, now show us evidence of how it is increasing.

[Mastermind718]

Originally Posted by SobroGuy

Thanks for the listing of crime. we know that crime exists in NYC, now show us evidence of how it is increasing.

Sobro, this would be nearly impossible without resources that none of us have. All we can go by without the use of statistics is cursory examinations and anecdotal evidence. Just like you use. I'm sure you don't simply read the statistics and jump to the conclusion that crime is down because they say so. I'm sure you make observations of your nabe to substantiate the statistics. I do the same. Only problem is, my observations refute what is currently alleged by statistics. The thing is, is that you can't expect our conclusions on crime to be the same. You have your reasons for thinking crime is decreasing and I have mine for thinking its not.

[SobroGuy]

agreed...as Viral stated..we will agree to disagree...unless of course someone else would liek to opine and provide their take?

[KRS88]

I dont recall anywhere from 2002-2007 where violence has ocured like it has in 08 and 09 and a MAJORITY of New Yorkers feel this way just look at all the articles comments in DN and other news sources, and for gods sake leave your block and see what real New Yorkers think not a bunch of 60somethings who think just cause its not 1977 crime is at an all time low.

[SobroGuy]

A majority of NYers dont feel this way, in fact a majority of those on this thread don't even feel that way..it is split evenly 50/50. Despite your efforts to paint this city as crime ridden, the reality is 1993 had a "ridiculously high" level of crime, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2006, and on and on, is comparitively MUCH lower. 1993: about 2,500 murders, 2009 will be about 460. Plot crime along a graph, and see what direction it is headed (here is a hint..it ain't up!).

[Infamous92]

Originally Posted by SobroGuy

A majority of NYers dont feel this way, in fact a majority of those on this thread don't even feel that way..it is split evenly 50/50. Despite your efforts to paint this city as crime ridden, the reality is 1993 had a "ridiculously high" level of crime, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2006, and on and on, is comparitively MUCH lower. 1993: about 2,500 murders, 2009 will be about 460. Plot crime along a graph, and see what direction it is headed (here is a hint..it ain't up!).

The majority of NYers don't live in a rough neighborhood, everyone's situation is different, some will notice a crime drop but unfortunately some don't. Yeah crime has gone down since the 80's/90's but I find it hard to believe that it hasn't risen over the past few years especially when I'm noticing more violence, this year alone I've heard far more gun shots than any other year, I've witnessed an armed robbery in progress, etc.

I don't rely on the "stats" anymore as they're not real to me. Based on what I'm seeing and experiencing the crime in 2008/2009 is the highest it has been this decade.

[SobroGuy]

Infamous, thats an interesting assumption. But if we based everything on what we saw, how can we ever come to any real conclusion about anything? Everyone will have very different experiences and thus make wildly different assumptions about crime. Which is why we have to use crime stats (which are far from bible truth) as well as our own experiences and perceptions, and put those all into some context about crime. I do not believe we have ridiculously high crime like we did in the 70s-90s, and I believe the long term trends are decidely downward, however it is entirely possible that crime had a post economic-collapse uptick this year, which is what most people expected but did not appear in the stats.

I would like to know what recent transplants feel about crime in NYC?