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Old 11-26-2008, 09:23 PM
 
132 posts, read 352,292 times
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Default per capita homicide rates by neighborhood

I calculated a crime rate estimate by some precincts by averaging the statistics from the last two years, and weighing them by the precinct population. The results are in the attached plain text file.

The numbers are not exact, but a fair rounding. The data is too small (only two years, discounting December 07/08) to be statistically significant enough to warrant more precise calculation. Plus, the neighborhood populations are based on the 2000 census, and most of them have probably increased a bit since then.

The homicide rates are incredibly low, when considering the demographics of some neighborhoods. Even areas like the South Bronx have homicide rates lower than the average rate of many US cities. The worst neighborhoods in some other cities have far higher rates - often 40-150 homicides per 100,000 people. Really puts into perspective how deadly the "bad" neighborhoods are.

The national average rate of fatalities from car accidents is about 12 per 100,000 people. That is a higher rate than much of Harlem and the Bronx. Goes to show that life in wealthy suburbs can be more deadly than life in a poor NYC neighborhood! Pedestrian fatality rates in NYC are around 3 per 100,000. Bicyclist fatality rates for NYC are around 0.3 per 100,000 (if there are 100,000 regular cyclists in NYC, that would make a bicyclist death rate of about 24 per 100k cyclists per year).


Attached Files
File Type: txt nyc per capita crime 07-08.txt (1.4 KB, 391 views)

Last edited by Rusty_Shackleford; 11-26-2008 at 10:01 PM..
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Old 11-27-2008, 06:17 AM
 
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This is a fascinating project, but it seems skewed ethnically. Why don't you flesh it out a bit more, like adding the rest of Manhattan below 90th street?
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Old 11-27-2008, 09:55 AM
 
132 posts, read 352,292 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WillRockwell View Post
This is a fascinating project, but it seems skewed ethnically. Why don't you flesh it out a bit more, like adding the rest of Manhattan below 90th street?
Well my original reason for doing it was to get a better idea of serious crime rates in neighborhoods that are in my price range. I didn't bother with most of Manhattan for that reason. But here are a few:

Precinct / Neighborhood / Homicide rate per 100k / Robbery rate / felony assault rate
19 UES 1.5 100/50
23 far UES 8 320/220
24 far UWS 3 230/100
Central Park: 3 robberies per month
20 UWS 0.8 120/90
6 Greenwich Vil. 3 200/110
9 East Village 1 190/150
13 Gramercy 3 330/300
07 Lower East side 17.5 (!) 1330 / 770
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Old 11-27-2008, 12:04 PM
 
Location: Bronx, NY
5,075 posts, read 11,585,271 times
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A few things:

You forgot the 52nd.

The 46th covers some of University Heights. But it also covers Morris Heights, Tremont and Fordham entirely. So 4 neighborhoods. Keep that in mind.

The 44th is not Morris Heights. The 44th covers Highbridge and Concourse.

The 48th does not cover Fordham. It covers East Tremont and West Farms.

By just looking at it, I know Hunts Point's murder rate is wrong. The highest murder rate in the borough should come from Hunts Point.

Finally, do not go by the 2000 census. Neighborhoods have changed entirely. For example, Community District 7, the 52nd precinct, had 21 homicides in 2001. Last year it only had 13. So at first glance, it looked like CD # 7 got safer. But when I checked the 2005 ACS community report (or 2006) the population saw a significant decline. There were massive changes throughout. The 2000 numbers should not be used.

Here are the 2006 populations.

Note: The website adds two community districts together if they are under 100,000..... to get a population over 100,000.

CD 1 + CD 2 = 137,900

CD 3 + CD 6 = 156,950

CD 4 = 132,838

CD 5 = 133,858

CD 7 = 124,968

CD 9 = 180,396

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

So more accurate murder rates for 2007 would be:

Hunts Point - Mott Haven = 16 per 100,000

Morrisania - West Farms - East Tremont = 10 per 100,000

Highbridge, Concourse = 16 per 100,000

Morris Heights, Tremont, Fordham, Uni Heights = 13 per 100,000

Uni Heights, Fordham Bedford, Bedford park, Norwood = 10 per 100,000

The above are the neighborhoods in the Bronx with the highest murder rate....or your "south Bronx" neighborhoods.
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Old 11-27-2008, 12:18 PM
 
Location: Bronx, NY
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But Bronx neighborhoods fluctuate so much, 1 year is not indicative of the neighborhood. A neighborhood could be the murder capital one year, and the next be the safest.
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Old 11-27-2008, 02:16 PM
 
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I forgot dozens of precincts. I didn't calculate them all. I said "some precincts", not "all".
The names are mostly taken from the police precinct map and the names from the academic paper called "An Empirical Assessment of NYPD’s “Operation Impact”: A Targeted Zone Crime Reduction Strategy". They're not totally accurate. You can see the actual precinct boundaries on the NYPD website. That is why I included the precinct number.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperMario View Post
But Bronx neighborhoods fluctuate so much, 1 year is not indicative of the neighborhood. A neighborhood could be the murder capital one year, and the next be the safest.
That's why I calculated it by the last two years, not just one year. And it's why I said that the numbers aren't necessarily all that statistically significant. But the precincts with over 10 murders a year (in the Bronx for instance) are going to have more reliable numbers than those with 0-5 murders (in the safer parts of Manhattan).


Quote:
By just looking at it, I know Hunts Point's murder rate is wrong. The highest murder rate in the borough should come from Hunts Point.

Finally, do not go by the 2000 census. Neighborhoods have changed entirely. For example, Community District 7, the 52nd precinct, had 21 homicides in 2001. Last year it only had 13. So at first glance, it looked like CD # 7 got safer. But when I checked the 2005 ACS community report (or 2006) the population saw a significant decline. There were massive changes throughout. The 2000 numbers should not be used.
How significant of a decline? 50%?? I really doubt that the population changed such a huge amount in 6-7 years to really influence the per capita statistics. Again, with the crime declines in recent years, and year to year fluctuations, there is no point in nitpicking between a rate of 14 and 15. What is relevant is if the number is '15' instead of say, '5'.

Community districts are not the same thing as police precincts. Their boundaries can vary. The populations aren't the same, and will give you crime rates that are highly innacurate.


Quote:
So more accurate murder rates for 2007 would be:
I gave murder rates averaged between 2007 and 2008. So you could cherry pick Hunts Point in 2007 as being high, but you're ignoring the fact that they've only had 3 homicides this year compared to 8 last year.
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Old 11-27-2008, 02:40 PM
 
3,225 posts, read 5,272,779 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rusty_Shackleford View Post
I forgot dozens of precincts. I didn't calculate them all. I said "some precincts", not "all".
The names are mostly taken from the police precinct map and the names from the academic paper called "An Empirical Assessment of NYPD’s “Operation Impact”: A Targeted Zone Crime Reduction Strategy". They're not totally accurate. You can see the actual precinct boundaries on the NYPD website. That is why I included the precinct number.



That's why I calculated it by the last two years, not just one year. And it's why I said that the numbers aren't necessarily all that statistically significant. But the precincts with over 10 murders a year (in the Bronx for instance) are going to have more reliable numbers than those with 0-5 murders (in the safer parts of Manhattan).




How significant of a decline? 50%?? I really doubt that the population changed such a huge amount in 6-7 years to really influence the per capita statistics. Again, with the crime declines in recent years, and year to year fluctuations, there is no point in nitpicking between a rate of 14 and 15. What is relevant is if the number is '15' instead of say, '5'.

Community districts are not the same thing as police precincts. Their boundaries can vary. The populations aren't the same, and will give you crime rates that are highly innacurate.


I gave murder rates averaged between 2007 and 2008. So you could cherry pick Hunts Point in 2007 as being high, but you're ignoring the fact that they've only had 3 homicides this year compared to 8 last year.
With all due respect to you there's only so much one can do from behind a computer screen toying with selective stats and trying to decipher issues like crime, housing, etc., from afar.

Sometimes one needs to take off the cap and gown, come out of the ivory tower, and pay heed to people who actually live in specific neighborhoods. Mario is known to be an expert on demographics for the Bronx as both a resident and someone who is perceived as being on top of its stats - however one wishes to cut or slice them.
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Old 11-27-2008, 03:10 PM
 
Location: Bronx, NY
5,075 posts, read 11,585,271 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rusty_Shackleford View Post
I forgot dozens of precincts. I didn't calculate them all. I said "some precincts", not "all".
The names are mostly taken from the police precinct map and the names from the academic paper called "An Empirical Assessment of NYPD’s “Operation Impact”: A Targeted Zone Crime Reduction Strategy". They're not totally accurate. You can see the actual precinct boundaries on the NYPD website. That is why I included the precinct number.
Trust me, the 44th is not Morris Heights. I must question your knowledge of the Bronx if you believe that to be so. The 48th is not Fordham, but East Tremont and West Farms. If you want people to buy into your statistics, you atleast have to be accurate about it. The 46th does not cover all of University Heights. But it does cover all of Fordham, Tremont and Morris Heights. So why then do you label the precinct University Heights? It's not really a big deal but I personally name all 4 neighborhoods when discussing that precinct. I can't just call it one neighborhood, that would be inaccurate. I dont have to look at the precinct map either, I know the boundaries like the back of my hand.

Quote:
That's why I calculated it by the last two years, not just one year. And it's why I said that the numbers aren't necessarily all that statistically significant. But the precincts with over 10 murders a year (in the Bronx for instance) are going to have more reliable numbers than those with 0-5 murders (in the safer parts of Manhattan).
I know thats why I said the "murder rate for 2007." I agree with you for 2-3 year ranges but more than that it becomes difficult. You would have to get the average population for those years. Population has not been stable and any slight diffference can alter your result. I choose to go year by year, where we have almost exact population numbers for those years and just go from there.




Quote:
How significant of a decline? 50%?? I really doubt that the population changed such a huge amount in 6-7 years to really influence the per capita statistics. Again, with the crime declines in recent years, and year to year fluctuations, there is no point in nitpicking between a rate of 14 and 15. What is relevant is if the number is '15' instead of say, '5'.
Here are the 2 population figures. From 2000 and then again from 2006.

CD 1 + CD 2 = (2000) 128,983 (2006) 137,900 (diff) +8,917

CD 3 + CD 6 = (2000) 144,262 (2006) 156,950 (diff) +12,688

CD 4 = (2000) 139,563 (2006) 132,838 (diff) -6,725

CD 5 = (2000) 128,313 (2006) 133,858 (diff) +5,545

CD 7 = (2000) 141,411 (2006) 124,968 (diff) -16,443



Quote:
Community districts are not the same thing as police precincts. Their boundaries can vary. The populations aren't the same, and will give you crime rates that are highly innacurate.
Wrong. The Bronx community districts are virtually identical to the police precinct. So yes, the population is basically the same. Go look up a community district map and a police precinct map for the Bronx and come back and tell me what you saw. Where do you think the precinct gets its population numbers from? Thin air? The same goes for Zip codes. Zip codes are a little more different, but are in the general areas. The city does this on purpose, to make things more organized.


Quote:
I gave murder rates averaged between 2007 and 2008. So you could cherry pick Hunts Point in 2007 as being high, but you're ignoring the fact that they've only had 3 homicides this year compared to 8 last year.
That was really an outlier. Two years, are not really that accurate. If you are able to get a 7 year or 10 year murder rate for Hunts Point, it would be closer to 2007 than it would be to 2008.
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Old 10-13-2012, 01:28 PM
 
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It would be interesting to see an update to this thread. I am curious if any precinct in all of New York has a murder rate as high as the entire city of Chicago. There must be districts in Chicago with a murder rate that equals that of Juarez Mexico.


Here’s how we (Chicago) rank in murders per 100,000 among cities we consider our peers, based on a projected murder total of 505 for this year.

Singapore 0.4
Tokyo 0.5
Hong Kong 0.6
Berlin 1.0
Sydney 1.0
London 1.4
Toronto 1.7
Amsterdam 1.8
Paris 4.4
New York 6.0
Los Angeles 7.5
Mexico City 8.0
Moscow 9.6
Sao Paulo 15.6
Chicago 19.4
Source: Opinion: The Deadliest Global City | NBC Chicago
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Old 10-13-2012, 01:37 PM
 
Location: East Side
1,231 posts, read 768,695 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PacoMartin View Post
It would be interesting to see an update to this thread. I am curious if any precinct in all of New York has a murder rate as high as the entire city of Chicago. There must be districts in Chicago with a murder rate that equals that of Juarez Mexico.


Here’s how we (Chicago) rank in murders per 100,000 among cities we consider our peers, based on a projected murder total of 505 for this year.

Singapore 0.4
Tokyo 0.5
Hong Kong 0.6
Berlin 1.0
Sydney 1.0
London 1.4
Toronto 1.7
Amsterdam 1.8
Paris 4.4
New York 6.0
Los Angeles 7.5
Mexico City 8.0
Moscow 9.6
Sao Paulo 15.6
Chicago 19.4
Source: Opinion: The Deadliest Global City | NBC Chicago
Yeah Brownsville well I know in 2011 it had 30.0 for every 100,000(I dont do all that calculation crap Mario said that on another thread I think)before like 06 it had like 35.0.
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