Has Manhattan Real Estate Appreciation Value MAXED OUT??? (New York, Liberty: section 8, to rent)

[A_Better_Bronx_2morrow]

Originally Posted by mathjak107

lucky you, no stabilized tenants......

I have no rent control tenants but the rest are rent stabilized tenants. I still can only increase what the RGB says I can so I'm still screwed.

[mathjak107]

personally i think those big promotors of all those books that were such a big part of my generation about how easy it is to get a real estate empire going and be on the path to riches should be shot.. the good news for all of them they ultametly failed our went bankrupt at their own game.

theres no magic in any investment, to think your going to buy something for 5 or 10% down and suddenly have this huge cash machine that escalates in value yearly and guarantees you a lifetime of income is crazy.
sooooooo many people have lost money way beyond there wildest dreams with that thinking... you are just not out your 5 or 10% you are out at the least double what you put in after closing costs and broker costs in just a 10% slide if you need to sell a looser. its very hard making any money in the early years and truthfully as much as i like real estate ,residential real estate except for 3 runups in the last 25 years has not kept pace with most other asset classes.


as we sell off our real estate i have not abandoned real estate totaly, i do like whats called unlisted reits. unlike publicly traded reits which are actually stocks first and a real estate play 2nd and as such trade on all the things that make stocks move namely greed,fear and future perception.

the unlisted reits dont trade, you buy in when the sponser opens it, the one i use raises a billion dollars then closes it. we buy extended stay hotels only, we have marriott or hilton run them and brand name them , we collect an 8-1/2% dividend a year and then sell them off in 7 years and split the sale money.

its a nice way of participating in real estate with no headaches.. the one i owned previously was recently sold and the average return for the 7 years was almost 18% a year overall. while pasts never indicate whats going to be in the future its a nice easy way to have real estate coverage and a nice dividend too. the one i use is called the apple hospitality reits,...

im not sure if they have any open at this moment but they had been starting new ones as fast as the old ones closed to new money.

read the perspectus carefully as fees and terms change with each new program they start, make sure its for you and make sure your sticking it out until sold


there is usually no investment minimum....

watch the fees as some are crazy.. while its true you cant buy any real estate anywhere thats real brick and mortar and not have closing costs the 6 per cent or so that most charge in entrance fees is acceptable but some go sky high and id avoid them

[mathjak107]

as most of you know who know a little about me ,one of the things i enjoy doing is writting financial articles for different financial publications .

as i say most people do more research buying a refrigerator then they do their own investments or understand things pertaining to their financial lives and financial well being and most people have a tendency to commit financial suicide when left to their own devices. . my wife teases me all the time as she says most people have so little knowledge of financial issues that she says im bringing fire to the natives most of the time ha ha ha

i just want to emphisis there is a big distinction between speculating and investing.

when you go out there and attempt to find that next google, or microsoft or hope to buy an undervalued property or try to catch the next hot area before its hot , all these things are speculating.

basically you are betting you are smarter then the markets and hope to gain from being smarter

in stocks unless you are buying many many stocks across all sectors such as a well diversified mutual fund you are speculating.

your hoping to find just the right company ,in just the right business,at just the right time, in just the right market sentiment and even if you got that right you damn better know what the competitors are doing.....

investing on the other hand is not guessing whats hot, not trying to out smart others and not betting on the rises and falls of any company or market. you are basically accepting what ever return the markets give you for that diverse mix and not trying to beat everyone else tothe punch. every investment is carefully analyzed and the return as is,is a return thats acceptable to you with pleny of margin for error.

for most of us,myself included im not smart enough to speculate. the financial graveyards are full of speculators who thought just plunk down the money and profits roll in.

truthfully unless i had extra money to speculate with i wouldnt buy 1 apartment or 1 building , unless i had the dough to buy a few buildings in different areas ,with different types of tenants ,in different ethnic groups id be very careful if this was my life savings as realize you are speculating more than you are investing.

if you are speculating you should never use money thats near and dear to you like hoping to bolster the kids college money or even the bulk of your retirement money... investing yes speculating no....

[mathjak107]

most of the time investors do well... speculators become either filthy rich or filthy broke, theres rarly anything in the middle... what most people think is investing is really speculating... nothing wrong with speculating if your smart enough to speculate but i think most people speculate in real estate or stocks and then condemn them for being bad investments when they go bad not realizing they didnt invest they speculated and lost

[mathjak107]

think of it this way, at one time tarrytown ny was a hot, stable real estate market. for years you could operate rentals there and be comfortable in knowing you did the right thing...

then gm closed the plant, real estate and business crumbled as the towns big employer left.. the rental market was devestated.

but had you also owned property in manhattan, lic, willamsburg ,harlem etc the rise in these other areas more then offset the devestation in tarrytown and your over all return barley noticed the blip.

tarrytown only= speculating

buying enough diversification to make you immune to a particular down turn = investing

of course all markets will rise and fall in general cycles like now but when the tide turns you will too, unless your not diversified enough,then if one area fails you fail

[A_Better_Bronx_2morrow]

We all agree that there is a shortage in affordable hosuing in the entire NYC. And there will always be a shortage as long as these RENT STABILIZATION LAWS exist. Because under the current RS law, if a developer builds a 6 unit or more apartment building, it is AUTOMATICALLY under the RS laws and regulated by the City so why would any developer invest millions of dollars on something that the city dictates and tells you what to charge for rent and the terms? So developers decide NOT to build at all, hence a housing shortage.

[Otis_Nevins]

Originally Posted by mathjak107

think of it this way, at one time tarrytown ny was a hot, stable real estate market. for years you could operate rentals there and be comfortable in knowing you did the right thing...

then gm closed the plant, real estate and business crumbled as the towns big employer left.. the rental market was devestated.

but had you also owned property in manhattan, lic, willamsburg ,harlem etc the rise in these other areas more then offset the devestation in tarrytown and your over all return barley noticed the blip.

tarrytown only= speculating

I was living in Tarrytown at the time... Lived there for quite a while. Houses be expensive then and be expensive now... "Devastation" is something not applicable in re GM closing. In fact, it got more expensive to live there, fancier, even, what without the blue collar jobs and all. It got so fancy that 'North Tarrytown" decided they'd had enough and became "Sleepy Hollow." It's the haunt of doctors, lawyer, headless horsemen, CEOs, etc.

Westchester County taxes are really high and thus you've got to have many dollars to live there; Tarrytown being particularly expensive, though it's no Somers. Tarrytown's plus is that it's a Metro-North hub and it's on the Hudson and somewhat nice. I wouldn't want to own there now

[mathjak107]

i never lived in tarreytown but i was a vendor to gm at the time and i remember businesses just keeling over and dying when they closed up..

many had to leave the area.... years later i did see the area recover nicely and now they have some crazily expensive homes.. sleepy hollow is amazing

[mathjak107]

Originally Posted by A_Better_Bronx_2morrow

We all agree that there is a shortage in affordable hosuing in the entire NYC. And there will always be a shortage as long as these RENT STABILIZATION LAWS exist. Because under the current RS law, if a developer builds a 6 unit or more apartment building, it is AUTOMATICALLY under the RS laws and regulated by the City so why would any developer invest millions of dollars on something that the city dictates and tells you what to charge for rent and the terms? So developers decide NOT to build at all, hence a housing shortage.

im still waiting for anyone to show me a non luxury rental building that was built after the late 1970's.... i myself could find no rentals built in the city at all except those luxury 2,000 dollars plus trump style buildings

[A_Better_Bronx_2morrow]

Thank the very liberal politicians throughout the years who support rent stabilization and think they are doing a service to the public when in reality are doing a DISSERVICE to the public by supporting rent stabilization. There are so many negative side affects from rent stabilization that the average person doesnt realize.