New York City fears return to 1970s (Norwood, Hope: 2010, crimes)

[Andez]

Originally Posted by Fred314X

If there was going to be book cooking, I think it would be in the other direction--trying to make a precinct with high crime look safer than it really is. Trying to make an area look worse? What were you thinking when you posted that?

I think he was just being sarcastic though.

Although I don't agree with the worst neighborhoods. Pretty bad, but the 52nd precinct covers a densely populated area. (Correct me if I'm wrong) 4 neighborhoods?

While the 73rd only covers Brownsville with 75 robberies so far this year. (89 last year this time)

[OyCrumbler]

How can anyone look at the January 08/09 statistics and not be alarmed?! Staten Island DOUBLED its monthly murder rate within a year, and then you have to adjust for the gross undercounting as our insider friend has shown that twice as many murders actually occurred than were officially reported. So if we're looking at that then, its obvious that the murder rate actually quadrupled. This means that Staten Island is headed for 262144 murders a month just a decade from now!

[bluedog2]

Originally Posted by OyCrumbler

How can anyone look at the January 08/09 statistics and not be alarmed?! Staten Island DOUBLED its monthly murder rate within a year, and then you have to adjust for the gross undercounting as our insider friend has shown that twice as many murders actually occurred than were officially reported. So if we're looking at that then, its obvious that the murder rate actually quadrupled. This means that Staten Island is headed for 262144 murders a month just a decade from now!

I told you,don't worry.They are cooking the books to make things look worse than they really are.The murder rate probably actually went down.

[SuperMario]

Originally Posted by Andez

I think he was just being sarcastic though.

Although I don't agree with the worst neighborhoods. Pretty bad, but the 52nd precinct covers a densely populated area. (Correct me if I'm wrong) 4 neighborhoods?

While the 73rd only covers Brownsville with 75 robberies so far this year. (89 last year this time)

10468 which covers just about all the 52nd (except for a small part in 10453) had a reported 2007 population of 79,634.

11212 which covers Brownsville has about 86,602 residents. Which is a reason, along with East NY, that homicides number can get to the 20's with ease and can get up to 30+. It is also a bad neighborhood to boot, but its size makes it look worse.

You can find these stats on the city-data front page. Here are other similar precincts in population with th 52, and the robberies so far this year.

10468 (79,634) = 102 robberies
11212 (86,602) = 75 robberies
10453 (78,074) = 67 robberies
10452 (73,353) = 67 robberies
11208 (88,640) = 85 robberies

The 2nd one is Brownsville, the 3rd one is the Tremont area, the 4th one is the Highbridge area, and the last one is East NY.

So it may actually be the worst at this moment. But not with homicides, it's not really a homicide precinct. It looks bad anyway you cut it.

[Eurodawg]

Question to Supermario: I suppose that you know the Bronx quite good. I visited the Bronx as a teenager in 1981, the area of Fordham (Poe Cottage). I visited the area again this year in February. I was surprised that not too much has changed visually, still looks quite rundown, especially the subway ride (except that the subway itself is MUCH cleaner and safer than it was). I walked the Aqueduct walk down from Kingsbridge to 167 ST. Is that area generally safe to walk? I thought there were some run down areas but I did not feel it was unsafe. I also visited Little Italy, a wonderful place with great food. I am planning to walk next from Kingsbridge road over to Manhattan via the old Kingsbridge. Any suggestions, precautions, routings for that trip. Thanks.

[Fred314X]

Originally Posted by OyCrumbler

Staten Island is headed for 262144 murders a month just a decade from now!

Now let's try and inject just a little realism into the thread, shall we? More than a quarter of a million murders in one month? If the whole borough has 600,000 residents, then it would only take three months for it to be completely depopulated. There's no way you could make an extrapolation like that from any current statistics and even pretend to be serious.

[Dark of the Moon]

Originally Posted by Fred314X

Now let's try and inject just a little realism into the thread, shall we? More than a quarter of a million murders in one month? If the whole borough has 600,000 residents, then it would only take three months for it to be completely depopulated.

At least at that point we'd no longer be polling to see if people want to trade S.I. for part of New Jersey .....

[Fred314X]

That's not the half of it! Imagine trying to apply a stat like that to the rest of the city (because if more than 200,000 people a month are being murdered in Staten Island, it would surely mean well over half a million in Brooklyn or The Bronx. The mind positively boggles at the work involved in murdering that many people).

[SobroGuy]

Lol..well leave it to the fear mongers to try to make the numbers work! Nevertheless, no reasonable person believes that NYC will revisit the 70s anytime soon, and anyone that does believe that..well the US will likely be in much worse shape should that come to pass, so NYC would probably still be the best place to ride it out. As a resident of Woodstock(Mott Haven), you would think I would be seeing the first signs of this impending 70s return, but all I see are new trees being planted, new parkland being created, new affordable housing being built, new bike lanes, and newbies moving to the area looking for good deals on apts. Hmm...now if that's the 70s that everyone fears...it ain't so bad after all!

[Fred314X]

Originally Posted by SobroGuy

Lol..well leave it to the fear mongers to try to make the numbers work! Nevertheless, no reasonable person believes that NYC will revisit the 70s anytime soon

The key word being "reasonable."