Is gentrification being halted by this recession? (New York, Manchester: real estate, apartment)

[NJ Chutzpah]

Has gentrification been halted by this recession?

Are you happy about it?

[SobroGuy]

Gentrification is a historical part of our normal cycle in NYC, in varying degrees. The REVITALIZATION of different neighborhoods by different groups is what makes NYC so great, so without this movement of new people and the subsequent "displacement", we would not have the many enclaves of communities remember. That being said, new groups, as shown by the latest census, are still moving into NYC, as are the affluent. The Bronx is now becoming the most diverse borough in the city and the choice for immigrants AND natives, and this REVITALIZATION and change is why we love NYC. Gentrification is not being halted just because prices are coming down, in fact because prices are coming down communities are now more affordable to everyone, so "gentrification" is still occuring, just not by the narrow few ultra wealthy, but by the broader group of upper middle class. This upper middle class wealth is far more diverse socially, racially and politically, and still qualifies under the moniker of "gentrifiers" as they are replacing the still poorer residents. Gentrification, or rather REVITALIZATION, is alive and well and actually GROWING because of the economy.

[thelazyone]

Gentrification only takes place when there is disposable income. Unless you have disposable income, there won’t be any gentrification taking place anytime soon.

[SobroGuy]

Strictly speaking gentrification is the replacement of residents of a community with new , more affluent residents. And here is an example of what qualifies as "gentrification" but is really a REVITALIZATION of a community: Average median Household incomes in MANY communities in NYC is $20,000 OR LESS, and today and for the forseeable future, new residents are moving in that earn $35,000-$50,000. Does this meet the strict definition of gentrification? Yes.However it is really a revitalization of a community, and a repositioning from extremely poor to working/middle class. The older, poorer residents are often times "displaced", and the new "more affluent" residents are moving in, with different needs/demands that often differ from the current, poorer residents.

[tpk-nyc]

For better or worse, gentrification has barely begun in New York. A huge percentage of educated professionals in the entire country would live in New York if they could. I know dozens of attorneys, doctors, MBAs, etc. from around the country who would move to the city in a heartbeat if the average apartment weren't over $1M. Back when Gen-Xers were in college, in the 80s and 90s, the city wasn't as safe or as cool/trendy as it is today. Only artists and banker types contemplated moving to the city right after college in those days. By the time people realized that the city had turned around, prices were already through the roof and few could afford to move here. At least not if they wanted a comparable lifestyle.

If you like urban living, the only real downside to New York is cost. If real estate prices become even moderately affordable again, we're going to see a huge influx of affluent (but not super-rich) professionals from all over the country pouring into the city. The danger is that there could be a huge brain-drain in other states.

New York stands to become to the US what London is the UK, i.e., THE city, period. Sure the UK has other cities like Birmingham and Manchester, but all of the perceived wealth, influence, status and power is in London. This creates a lot of tension and resentment between the rest of the UK and London.

People self-select based on geography and lifestyle. This trend is likely to continue and it could be rather dangerous from an economic perspective. If all of the super-educated people live in New York and Boston, and all of the less educated people live in Vegas and Orlando, the economy is not going to function very efficiently. Unlike the UK, the US is too big for such segregation to work.

[thelazyone]

Originally Posted by tpk-nyc

If you like urban living, the only real downside to New York is cost. If real estate prices become even moderately affordable again, we're going to see a huge influx of affluent (but not super-rich) professionals from all over the country pouring into the city. The danger is that there could be a huge brain-drain in other states.

New York stands to become to the US what London is the UK, i.e., THE city, period. Sure the UK has other cities like Birmingham and Manchester, but all of the perceived wealth, influence, status and power is in London. This creates a lot of tension and resentment between the rest of the UK and London.

People self-select based on geography and lifestyle. This trend is likely to continue and it could be rather dangerous from an economic perspective. If all of the super-educated people live in New York and Boston, and all of the less educated people live in Vegas and Orlando, the economy is not going to function very efficiently. Unlike the UK, the US is too big for such segregation to work.

Well said.

[SobroGuy]

I agree but I also don't worry about the less educated members of our society being in other locations, that's okay. Since we are all tied together now via technology, it is irrelevant whether all the "brains" are in NYC, and everyone else scattered about, b/c the country still functions as 1 unit and is taking advantage of competitve advantages across the country (locating different units in areas that are more appropriate/cost efficient). But I do agree that the more "affordable" NYC becomes, ironically, the more interest will spur by the upwardly mobile/affluent. Which is why the Bronx is becoming more attractive, people are now seeking value for the money, and there is no other place that is more affordable in NYC besides the Bronx. There is now a bigger influx of people taking an interest in getting a deal and finding an affordable place due to the economy...the irony!

[DAS]

The book Who's Your City by Richard Florida already lays this out. NYC is already what London is to the UK. It is beyond cities now, there are mega regions. The Boston - Washington DC corridor is one mega city area in the US.

There are others like Pittsburgh to Chicago corridor. The cities of Dallas, Austin and Houston in TX. Some stand alone like Nashville for music. All the mega cities have specialty areas that attract people for different professions. These people energize and develop more creativity from each other in their perspective specialties. So it does matter where you live. There are others throughout the country. All the wealth is contained in these mega regions and some cities that stand alone.

There are other regions throughout the world as well.

NYC will not brain drain the other mega regions. But in it's specialties it will continue to attract and demand the best of the best. Others that can't sustain NYC's demands within the specialies of the NE corridor will move to other parts between the Boston and Washington DC corridor that will be a little less demanding.

This has already happened, so you will continue to see the movements, and shifts throughout the country and the world. The shift will continue to affect all 5 boros of NYC. It is too late to stop the momentum. If anyone really wants to stay in NYC, and they can find a good deal during the economic crisis right now, they should jump on it.

[SobroGuy]

Agreed DAS..this whole shake out is really an opportunity for those who want to get in for the long term. If you are looking for a place in NYC, the next 18 months are the time to buy and position yourself, as those across the country are looking for the same deals that you are in NYC. Look for areas that will be ripe for development if you are a longterm buyer (I am biased of course..but I say BRONX!). If you are a shorter term buyer (under 5 years), stick with the areas that are one or two notches below the true prime areas, they are where the best deals are for "good" neighborhoods.

[DAS]

^Yes Sobroguy the Bronx is good for long term. Your advice is right on target in your post.