NY still best housing market in U.S. (New York, Boston: sales, real estate market)

[bluedog2]

Good news .The latest Case-Shiller index shows the New York area real estate market to be healthiest in the country despite recent declines and showing signs of stabilizing .
America's top 5 best – and worst – housing markets - MSN Real Estate

[Henna]

Originally Posted by bluedog2

Good news .The latest Case-Shiller index shows the New York area real estate market to be healthiest in the country despite recent declines and showing signs of stabilizing .
America's top 5 best – and worst – housing markets - MSN Real Estate

I was surprised to see San Francisco is among the worst.

[Henna]

OK, I just realized something. The Case-Shiller index only includes single-family houses! How does an index like that have anything to do with NYC? I realize there are some single-family houses here, but it has to be a tiny percentage of real estate in NYC.

[clevedark]

Good catch, Henna. One of the reason why I downplay statistics. There are too many unknown variables.

[bluedog2]

You are right Henna but their condo index shows the exact same trend... very little drop in NY prices.. more like a flat line , where there are sharp drops in SF and LA.
From what I can see,the various real estate markets around the country are doing exactly what they did in the last real estate crash in the 80's. California and the sunbelt and the rust belt always have a longer sharper decline while Boston and NY and the East Coast tend to be the last to fall, fall the least and are the first to recover.
Here is the Case-Shiller condo sales price chart through the end of 2008.They are the most respected trackers of home sale values because of their in depth methodology.

http://www.socketsite.com/S%26P%20Ca...os%2011-08.jpg

[halfoffpeak]

I believe that the NY housing market will be relatively the best in US. However, that does not mean that it is not due for a dramatic correction.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/06/ny.../06estate.html

The index for the New York Area went below 200 in Febr 2008 and since then it has declined to 183.

S&P | Indices > Alternative Indices - S&P/Case-Shiller® Home Price Indices - Home Price Values

There is already a 15% off peak. Such a sudden decrease might not apply to condos (yet) but the condos declined in value as well as your graph does not adjust for inflation. Flat translates to decrease due to inflation.

More important however is that the median income in NYC has fallen due to loss of finance jobs. If one adds the loss of credit that created this bubble the future looks very bleak. You ignore that the historical trend is half off peak and you fail to argue why the prices will not revert to their historical norms. This is the worst time to buy and one should weather the price fall.

We are just at the beginning of the crash. That's all.

[bluedog2]

You can wish all you want but they do in depth research and say that there are signs that the market is stabilizing. I'll trust them rather than your speculation.

[Henna]

Originally Posted by halfoffpeak

I believe that the NY housing market will be relatively the best in US. However, that does not mean that it is not due for a dramatic correction.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/06/ny.../06estate.html

The index for the New York Area went below 200 in Febr 2008 and since then it has declined to 183.

S&P | Indices > Alternative Indices - S&P/Case-Shiller® Home Price Indices - Home Price Values

There is already a 15% off peak. Such a sudden decrease might not apply to condos (yet) but the condos declined in value as well as your graph does not adjust for inflation. Flat translates to decrease due to inflation.

More important however is that the median income in NYC has fallen due to loss of finance jobs. If one adds the loss of credit that created this bubble the future looks very bleak. You ignore that the historical trend is half off peak and you fail to argue why the prices will not revert to their historical norms. This is the worst time to buy and one should weather the price fall.

We are just at the beginning of the crash. That's all.

You are speculating about the future, while the OP is providing some evidence of what has actually happened.

[halfoffpeak]

Originally Posted by Henna

You are speculating about the future,

I am not speculating, I predict based on current and historical data based on the assumption that housing prices follow a historical trend.

Now, saying that housing prices stabilize in NY, while OPs data show that there is a decrease going on, is what I call speculation

Originally Posted by Henna

while the OP is providing some evidence of what has actually happened.

OPs evidence is that there is a decrease going on. These are the case-shiller numbers for the last five months

223.71
222.57
221.26
219.10
217.38

The above are the condo numbers.
The last number is for dec 08 (closings). For the period after that please see the relevant ny times article
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/06/ny.../06estate.html

[bluedog2]

Nobody said that the market has not declined or that it definitely will not decline further. What THEY say in the narrative of THEIR report is that there are signs that the market in NY may be stabilizing and that the market in NY has thus far proven to be healthier than most .

I personally don't make any claims at all because I am not a seer and I don't have the technical or intuitive ability to be omniscient in this matter.

The title of this thread is "NY still best housing market in US ". Nothing more.