NYC real estate crash...the future is here... (New York, Bedford: for sale, real estate market)

[UnemployedFinanceGuy]

Check out these 4Q2008 figures that are showing a downward movement in the median price especially for areas such as Bedford Stuyvesat DQNews - New York City Area Home Prices and Sales On the other hand some zip codes (mostly in Manhattan) still show an ever increasing trend in median prices - check out zip code 10128 (UES) with 137% increase. This is very heartening for me since I have just finished real estate school and getting ready for the NY state real estate exam. Staten Island is a dog as always and the other boroughs are really the ones taking the brunt of the real estate crash.

[Henna]

It's tough for me reading all these reports about real estate to figure out what is what in terms of the numbers. This report you link to mentions numbers based on resale of single family home and condos, as well as new homes. So does that mean coops are not included in the report? I don't see how any report about NYC real estate can be accurate if it does not include the coop market. Aren't we still at around 75-80% coops in NYC in terms of the real estate for sale?

[UnemployedFinanceGuy]

The co-ops are included since the report captures all sales/resale activity.

[bluedog2]

Coops are not reported as real estate transactions and are not included in most of these reports.Not sure that condos are either.The case -schiller condo price index,which is put out by S +P and is the most highly respected index of all shows a very different picture for 5 major cities .Their home price index ,which tracks single family home sales show a very similar trend.The declines in New York are minimal despite all the sky is falling reports. Here is the chart for condo sales.
http://www.socketsite.com/S%26P%20Ca...os%2011-08.jpg

[bluedog2]

Originally Posted by UnemployedFinanceGuy

Check out these 4Q2008 figures that are showing a downward movement in the median price especially for areas such as Bedford Stuyvesat DQNews - New York City Area Home Prices and Sales On the other hand some zip codes (mostly in Manhattan) still show an ever increasing trend in median prices - check out zip code 10128 (UES) with 137% increase. This is very heartening for me since I have just finished real estate school and getting ready for the NY state real estate exam. Staten Island is a dog as always and the other boroughs are really the ones taking the brunt of the real estate crash.

Median price is not the best measure of anything in this market.It means that numerically 1/2 the sales were below and 1/2 were above. It is not the average and gets skewed by any irregularities.

[mathjak107]

we are in contract for 2 of our central park co-ops and went to contract at only 10% below what we could have gotten at the peak.... needles to say we are happy the manhattan market is staying strong

[bluedog2]

Originally Posted by mathjak107

we are in contract for 2 of our central park co-ops and went to contract at only 10% below what we could have gotten at the peak.... needles to say we are happy the manhattan market is staying strong

An apartment in the same line as mine in my building just sold a few weeks ago for more that what I paid last year. Only 1 floor up and in the exact same condition as mine when I bought.

[Henna]

Originally Posted by UnemployedFinanceGuy

The co-ops are included since the report captures all sales/resale activity.

I'm pretty sure you are wrong - it doesn't say that coops are included. Also if you take a look at a neighborhood such as Jackson Heights, it says the volume of sales in 4th quarter 2008 was 12. If you check nyc.gov's rolling sales data page you would see that nearly 200 coops alone (not including condos or houses) sold in zip code 11372 in that quarter. So where are those in your report?

edited to say: I am late to the game. While I was looking at the reports all these other people posted!

[halfoffpeak]

Originally Posted by bluedog2

Here is the chart for condo sales.
http://www.socketsite.com/S%26P%20Ca...os%2011-08.jpg

The index for the New York Area went below 200 in Febr 2008 and since then it has declined to 183.

S&P | Indices > Alternative Indices - S&P/Case-Shiller® Home Price Indices - Home Price Values

There is already a 15% off peak. Such a sudden decrease might not apply to condos (yet) but the condos declined in value as well as your graph does not adjust for inflation. Flat translates to decrease due to inflation.

More important however is that the median income in NYC has fallen due to loss of finance jobs. If one adds the loss of credit that created this bubble the future looks very bleak. You ignore that the historical trend is half off peak and you fail to argue why the prices will not revert to their historical norms.

We are just at the beginning of the crash. That's all.

[bluedog2]

Then why are they saying that according to their figures,New York has the healthiest real estate market in the country and is showing signs of stabilizing? Did you read the article or look at the charts ?
No offense but I will take their in depth research on home and condo sales over your or anyone else's speculation or wishful thinking.
Yes there is a problem but it is not nearly as bad in NY and Boston and some other places as in other parts of the country.