The Official NYC Crime Thread (New York, York: vs, stats, gangs)

[KRS88]

Originally Posted by SobroGuy

That is not true KRS...there was a period of about 25 years, 1970-1995 where there was ALOT of random violence that fueled much of the exodus and ultimate deterioration of many neighborhoods across the city. The reason why it is safer across the board is because much of the random violence is gone, and the vast majority of victims are those that are involved in the drug trade. So TODAY the reality is if you stay away from the drug dealers, you will be ok no matter where you are, in general.

I was talking about homicides only but maybe in the 70s they used to kill random people on the street for fun I dont know that time period I only remember NYC from 86 on.

[SobroGuy]

Well KRS this is why you should educate yourself and learn about the history of NYC so you can create an informed opinion based on research, and not just "what you remember." Too many people have no concept of NYC other than drugs, abandoned/deteriorated areas and poor people of color..when historically (as in everything before the last 40 years or so) it was none of those things. Crime continues to decrease, despite the usual high profile cases, streets are safer, and communities are healthier. Is it perfect? Heck no...never has been. Is it improving? I say YES.

[KRS88]

Firstly I am informed about the history Im just baseing the info on what I known for the last 23 years. Secondly your community is not the trademark for the rest of the low income neighborhoods crime rates.

[SobroGuy]

Actually my community is representative of typical higher crime communities in NYC, and the poster child of everything that went wrong in NYC for that matter...it is the most famous "ghetto" in the US. Nevertheless, crime is down...

[ChiMack]

sobroguy where in the bronx are you?

btw do you think nyc will finish with more or less than 500 murders this year?

[SobroGuy]

I am in Woodstock (which is just North of Mott Haven around 149st). I dont think anyone knows whether NYC will be under the 500 murder mark, however murders are substantially below where they were last year. I believe the first quarter of last year we had 116 murder, and the first quarter of this year was 89, a 24% drop, and below the 118 murders for the first quarter of 1962 (first year they began tracking). That is a significant drop, and really surprised most people, even me! However, the murder rate has been dropping for years, so it is in line with the trend. If you were to forecast based on the 89 number for the first quarter, then for the year the total could be 89 murders x 4 quarters = 356 murders for 2009! WOW...that would be amazingly low! Is this likely? Who knows...maybe this first quarter is a fluke and it will skyrocket, or maybe it will be lower. We don't know yet, however the trends are for a declining crime rate, and although many naysayers on hear always claim that crime is skyrocketing and NYC is sinking into a chaotic crime state, the FACTS dispute that...and NYC continues to get safer. Only time will tell, nevertheless, NOBODY would have predicted the steep decline...especially the naysayers.

[MosX]

So I was looking at the crime statistics (PDF) for the 108th precinct today because I'm interested in moving to Sunnyside, Queens. I understand it's one of the safer areas of the city and the statistics seem to support that. But what I find interesting is the amount of robberies. In the 28 day period ending 4/19, there were 10 robberies. Since the beginning of the year, there's been 40.

I keep up with crime reports using Gothamist, their news map, the NY Post's police blotter, and spotcrime.com (partly because I'm curious, but mostly because I just find myself going to these sites when bored) and I almost NEVER see any crime in that area.

Is this because nobody cares to report on Sunnyside? Are the robberies not news worthy enough?

Has anyone been in the area and personally experienced or seen one?

I'm just trying to get a feel for what the numbers really mean.

[KRS88]

Originally Posted by MosX

So I was looking at the crime statistics (PDF) for the 108th precinct today because I'm interested in moving to Sunnyside, Queens. I understand it's one of the safer areas of the city and the statistics seem to support that. But what I find interesting is the amount of robberies. In the 28 day period ending 4/19, there were 10 robberies. Since the beginning of the year, there's been 40.

I keep up with crime reports using Gothamist, their news map, the NY Post's police blotter, and spotcrime.com (partly because I'm curious, but mostly because I just find myself going to these sites when bored) and I almost NEVER see any crime in that area.

Is this because nobody cares to report on Sunnyside? Are the robberies not news worthy enough?

Has anyone been in the area and personally experienced or seen one?

I'm just trying to get a feel for what the numbers really mean.

Quite frankly the stats dont mean mess. The best way to get a feel of the neighborhoods crime is to walk around it for a bit and see how it feels. Personally I never went to sunnyside but I hear its one of the safest places in the city so I think you would be fine.

[njnyckid]

Originally Posted by SobroGuy

I am in Woodstock (which is just North of Mott Haven around 149st). I dont think anyone knows whether NYC will be under the 500 murder mark, however murders are substantially below where they were last year. I believe the first quarter of last year we had 116 murder, and the first quarter of this year was 89, a 24% drop, and below the 118 murders for the first quarter of 1962 (first year they began tracking). That is a significant drop, and really surprised most people, even me! However, the murder rate has been dropping for years, so it is in line with the trend. If you were to forecast based on the 89 number for the first quarter, then for the year the total could be 89 murders x 4 quarters = 356 murders for 2009! WOW...that would be amazingly low! Is this likely? Who knows...maybe this first quarter is a fluke and it will skyrocket, or maybe it will be lower. We don't know yet, however the trends are for a declining crime rate, and although many naysayers on hear always claim that crime is skyrocketing and NYC is sinking into a chaotic crime state, the FACTS dispute that...and NYC continues to get safer. Only time will tell, nevertheless, NOBODY would have predicted the steep decline...especially the naysayers.

So you don't believe that the crime stats have been manipulated? I remember back in Feb, I think, when there 2 double murders in Bed-Stuy and one of them wasn't counted (and still isn't).

Plus why do you think that because crime is down in your neighborhood (Mott Haven), it says the same for the rest of the city. As far as I'm concern Bed-Stuy, Bville, ENY, Harlem, Bushwick etc. are still high crime areas (some of them increasing higher than last year).

[vitalove]

You know I am in Upper Manhattan and I am seeing an increased amount of drugs and prostitution, in a heavily gentrified area I might add. Just today a van and a police car were parked outside of my building trying to diffuse some type of group argument. The amount of homeless people and obvious drug users out on the streets have started to spike. The number of businesses that claim to be "restaurants" and "stores" but have very little wares once you go inside---obvious "fronts"----have also seemingly blossomed overnight.

Still, it's a matter of "perception." I guess unless someone shoots you in the face or knocks you over the head directly, it's just a matter of numbers and "perception." A sad day in NYC when a NY'er can't come out with the truth about his/her own neighborhood, a place where one is living day to day; when we take "numbers" over real-life accounts. Truly sad how the hype machine here is desperately trying to squeak its "truths."