Are middle class residents being pushed out of NYC? (Burns: leases, how much)

[Ninjahedge]

Originally Posted by otters21

I personally do not find anything attractive about moving to the sunbelt.

Opinion. I agree, but it is still preference...

I believe that it is going to be just as expensive to live with sunbelt cities being sprawled out and car oriented. Driving is going to be almost mandatory with the hard to cross 4-6-8 or more lane roads.

Not just from that. There towns were built as either self-sufficient farm towns (grow what you need and visit the market for other stuff) that did not need the gas so much just to go shopping at the mall.

But being that isolated, the 'burbs that formed there adopted the sprawl but refused to accept the isolation. You not only had to drive everywhere, you needed to BE everywhere (shools, churches, work, etc).

If these areas were more centralized, with places you could WALK to for a container of milk, you would see less dependence on the cars, regardless of the width of the highways themselves.

Gas prices are soaring and the auto industry is in very sorry shape . Car payments and plus auto insurance is going to take a big chunk out of one's paycheck.

Gas prices should go up. I don't like the pinch I will feel from this, but the only way to get things to change it to make people start hurting. Hybrids were little wussy geek-mobiles until gas topped $4 a gallon. Now we have some hybrid SUV's, high milage diesels, and electric cars with some punch.

We also have consumer goods prices still up where they were even though gas dropped below $2 a gallon recently (and back up to $2.50 for silver, Happy Summer!).

I hope gas prices go up and make us spend more time and money on better batteries, better renewable systems (solar being a biggie), and possibly even better ways to generate renewable fuels (hydrogen fuel cells).

But, as you said, in the interim, people will be hurting. Growing pains. And these towns will feel the hurt the most.

The McMansions and newer cookie cutter homes are pricey to buy and since they are built flimsy , the upkeep on them is going to get very pricey.

That isn't just the sunbelt. Some of these pre-fabs see problems with stuff like weatherstripping in the first five years even if they got everything right.

Don't do the foundation right and your roof could be leaking on one!!!!

But hopefully the markt will stabalize and these McMansions will return to the prices they were worth (% above construction cost) rather than the starry eyed hopefulness that these contractors wanted to get in the first place!!!!

I am not knocking down the Sunbelt and people are going to have their own preferences .However it is not for everyone in the middle class. I myself is one of them . I do not drive and I have no desire to do so. My husband are just barely making ends meet with just one car and driver ( the dear hubby) in our household. Two of the main reasons I choose not to drive A. car payments, insurance and upkeep are expensive and gas prices are skyrocketing . B agressive drivers and traffic clogged highways can be dangerous.

OK, while I agree with you on not needing to depend on more than one car, the reasons are a bit off. The roads are not a gladiator pit. They are dangerous, but not so much you have to surrender your personal freedom to the fear of them.

Insurance IS a beast, but if you get the right car, upkeep is not (My 1995 Mazda is still driving with less than 90K miles on it. Total repair cost, including regular stuff like mufflers, ha been only a few thousand over its 15 year life, knock on wood).

As for Gas, you just have to cut back, not forego it entirely. At less than $3000 miles a year in a car that gets 20mpg city (on a bad day) that is only 150 gallons of gas a year. hell, gas could go to $10 a gallon and I would still spend more money on beer than fuel, although I think I would be carrying the cases more than driving them home!!!


I think the key here is moderation, and until we learn that as a country, we will keep swinging back and forth between cheap-arse frugality and gluttonous overindulgence (Navigator anyone?).

[gradstudent77]

Originally Posted by tpk-nyc

The challenge with New York, from a demographic/economic perspective, is that it's much more like a European city (London or Paris) than an American one. This is very hard for Americans to understand/accept as it's such an anomaly. Boston and San Francisco (both surrounded by water) are the only other American cities that are vaguely similar.

How is it like Paris? It's because the rich live in the historic city center and the middle and working classes live on the periphery. New York is unusual because the "luxury" areas are so enormous (the whole of Manhattan south of 110th Street, but including some areas around Columbia and brownstones in Harlem, most of Brownstone Brooklyn plus Williamsburg, and recently parts of LIC).

Put another way, the affluent areas of New York are geographically larger than the entire city of Minneapolis. The middle class is effectively excluded from owning within the 30 square miles at the heart of the city.

I make no assertion as to whether or not certain people "deserve" to live within those 30 square miles. In the expectations game, most of us have typical, American expectations. The problem is that those expectations don't apply in NYC.

+1,000,000. Brilliant.

[gradstudent77]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

Some interesting thoughts about your post:

1) One thing about metro NYC is that in many other areas, those desparate for housing can live in a "trailer park". This essentially doesn't exist here (there was a small one in Croton-on-Hudson in Westchester County I passed on my old commute, next nearest ones I know of are in northern Putnam County and Dutchess County upstate). That factors into the housing equation.

.

There are trailer parks in NJ. Of course, developers are trying to kick the residents out to build luxury condos...

[saturnfan]

Originally Posted by Ninjahedge

Opinion. I agree, but it is still preference...



Not just from that. There towns were built as either self-sufficient farm towns (grow what you need and visit the market for other stuff) that did not need the gas so much just to go shopping at the mall.

But being that isolated, the 'burbs that formed there adopted the sprawl but refused to accept the isolation. You not only had to drive everywhere, you needed to BE everywhere (shools, churches, work, etc).

If these areas were more centralized, with places you could WALK to for a container of milk, you would see less dependence on the cars, regardless of the width of the highways themselves.



Gas prices should go up. I don't like the pinch I will feel from this, but the only way to get things to change it to make people start hurting. Hybrids were little wussy geek-mobiles until gas topped $4 a gallon. Now we have some hybrid SUV's, high milage diesels, and electric cars with some punch.

We also have consumer goods prices still up where they were even though gas dropped below $2 a gallon recently (and back up to $2.50 for silver, Happy Summer!).

I hope gas prices go up and make us spend more time and money on better batteries, better renewable systems (solar being a biggie), and possibly even better ways to generate renewable fuels (hydrogen fuel cells).

But, as you said, in the interim, people will be hurting. Growing pains. And these towns will feel the hurt the most.



That isn't just the sunbelt. Some of these pre-fabs see problems with stuff like weatherstripping in the first five years even if they got everything right.

Don't do the foundation right and your roof could be leaking on one!!!!

But hopefully the markt will stabalize and these McMansions will return to the prices they were worth (% above construction cost) rather than the starry eyed hopefulness that these contractors wanted to get in the first place!!!!



OK, while I agree with you on not needing to depend on more than one car, the reasons are a bit off. The roads are not a gladiator pit. They are dangerous, but not so much you have to surrender your personal freedom to the fear of them.

Insurance IS a beast, but if you get the right car, upkeep is not (My 1995 Mazda is still driving with less than 90K miles on it. Total repair cost, including regular stuff like mufflers, ha been only a few thousand over its 15 year life, knock on wood).

As for Gas, you just have to cut back, not forego it entirely. At less than $3000 miles a year in a car that gets 20mpg city (on a bad day) that is only 150 gallons of gas a year. hell, gas could go to $10 a gallon and I would still spend more money on beer than fuel, although I think I would be carrying the cases more than driving them home!!!


I think the key here is moderation, and until we learn that as a country, we will keep swinging back and forth between cheap-arse frugality and gluttonous overindulgence (Navigator anyone?).

After years in Manhattan, we moved to NJ, New Orleans, then Raleigh, NC.

Been in Raleigh 20 years and like it but really miss the convenience of a mass transit city like NYC.

We rent and get a great deal but construction is pure dreck. Even see wood in new 8 floor multi-family luxury housing (think crispy critters in a fire).

I have poor depth perception and night vision. Interstates are required to get almost everywhere but are out of the question for me.

Really miss NYC but can't afford it. Even Alphabet City, where my late Mom lived, has been gentrified.

So many wealthy New Yorkers (especially from upstate) are coming here that many folks refer to them as "yuppie scum" because they come here with a superior attitude and run up prices with their show off greed in housing.

I wish you still in good old NYC my best.

[gradstudent77]

The squeeze on the middle class is primarily a housing issue, imo. Something continues to attract people here, whether its jobs, hope, education, the lifestyle, or whatever. To accommodate this growth we would need to build a lot of new housing. We have two obstacles to building the magnitude of new housing we would need to get prices closer to national averages: 1) the whole metro is basically built out- we don't have much virgin land that can be built on and 2) Our zoning does not permit nearly enough construction or re-development.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by ddhboy

In fact the idea that you have to make 150K a year to buy a house is laughable concept anywhere else in the country.

It was almost as true in the SF Bay area and it still not too far off the mark there (in fact until recently their suburbs were actually MORE expensive than our suburbs, but less expensive than Manhattan), and to a lesser extent was true in Southern California as well (but not so much now as housing is really cratering there).

Originally Posted by gradstudent77

There are trailer parks in NJ. Of course, developers are trying to kick the residents out to build luxury condos...

Yes, but not in the "inner-ring" NJ areas. They are about as far out from the City as the Croton-on-Hudson Westchester example I gave (though certainly not as far out as Putnam or Dutchess counties, where you start to see them more).

[gradstudent77]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

It was almost as true in the SF Bay area and it still not too far off the mark there (in fact until recently their suburbs were actually MORE expensive than our suburbs, but less expensive than Manhattan), and to a lesser extent was true in Southern California as well (but not so much now as housing is really cratering there).



Yes, but not in the "inner-ring" NJ areas. They are about as far out from the City as the Croton-on-Hudson Westchester example I gave (though certainly not as far out as Putnam or Dutchess counties, where you start to see them more).

There's a trailer park in North Bergen, NJ, and one in Moonachie, NJ. You are absolutely right that they are not nearly as common as they are in other cities, though.

.

[otters21]

Originally Posted by ninjahedge

opinion. I agree, but it is still preference...



Not just from that. There towns were built as either self-sufficient farm towns (grow what you need and visit the market for other stuff) that did not need the gas so much just to go shopping at the mall.

But being that isolated, the 'burbs that formed there adopted the sprawl but refused to accept the isolation. You not only had to drive everywhere, you needed to be everywhere (shools, churches, work, etc).

If these areas were more centralized, with places you could walk to for a container of milk, you would see less dependence on the cars, regardless of the width of the highways themselves.



Gas prices should go up. I don't like the pinch i will feel from this, but the only way to get things to change it to make people start hurting. Hybrids were little wussy geek-mobiles until gas topped $4 a gallon. Now we have some hybrid suv's, high milage diesels, and electric cars with some punch.

We also have consumer goods prices still up where they were even though gas dropped below $2 a gallon recently (and back up to $2.50 for silver, happy summer!).

I hope gas prices go up and make us spend more time and money on better batteries, better renewable systems (solar being a biggie), and possibly even better ways to generate renewable fuels (hydrogen fuel cells).

But, as you said, in the interim, people will be hurting. Growing pains. And these towns will feel the hurt the most.



That isn't just the sunbelt. Some of these pre-fabs see problems with stuff like weatherstripping in the first five years even if they got everything right.

Don't do the foundation right and your roof could be leaking on one!!!!

But hopefully the markt will stabalize and these mcmansions will return to the prices they were worth (% above construction cost) rather than the starry eyed hopefulness that these contractors wanted to get in the first place!!!!



Ok, while i agree with you on not needing to depend on more than one car, the reasons are a bit off. The roads are not a gladiator pit. They are dangerous, but not so much you have to surrender your personal freedom to the fear of them.

Insurance is a beast, but if you get the right car, upkeep is not (my 1995 mazda is still driving with less than 90k miles on it. Total repair cost, including regular stuff like mufflers, ha been only a few thousand over its 15 year life, knock on wood).

As for gas, you just have to cut back, not forego it entirely. At less than $3000 miles a year in a car that gets 20mpg city (on a bad day) that is only 150 gallons of gas a year. Hell, gas could go to $10 a gallon and i would still spend more money on beer than fuel, although i think i would be carrying the cases more than driving them home!!!


i think the key here is moderation, and until we learn that as a country, we will keep swinging back and forth between cheap-arse frugality and gluttonous overindulgence (navigator anyone?).

awesome post!

[BKATL]

The middle class cannot be pushed out of NYC completely. There must be a balance in class and if you just have the rich living, without the middle class NYC will fail. Think about it, why would a rich person want to work for anyone, NYPD, FDNY, DSNY, Transit, DOT, ConEd, private communication companies, city employees, and many other more. Do I really need to go on? Let's stop the nonsense, this is a time in our economy that we all have to re-think or replan what choices we make in our lives not only for our futures, but our children's and grandchidren's and so on. This is just a great depression of the 21st Century. We will get through it, our parents did!

[vitalove]

Originally Posted by ddhboy

I think that what's hilarious about this thread is that rather than debating the substance of the question everyone is just playing semantics and trying to redefine middle class in NYC as somehow being greatly different from what is considered middle class everywhere else in the western world.

I think that when you get down to it, people don't want to address it because its a scary proposition. Without a healthy middle class the city simply cannot sustain the "luxury city" that politicians have been floating around. Without question, what we are referring to as the middle class is leaving the city and affordable housing here is anything but. In fact the idea that you have to make 150K a year to buy a house is laughable concept anywhere else in the country.

Unfortunately, the middle class here in NYC is very different from the middle class in most any other city. The sheer cost of living here has caused for this redefinition. 40-50k here in NYC is very different from any other city and even some other major cities. Even you agree that having to make 150k to buy a home is ridiculous, but that's what it takes in NYC. And yes it's a shame.

At its peak the real estate market here wanted 800k on average to buy a home. And at its peak, some of the very European cities we are now trying to emulate were actually cheaper to live in than NYC. Paris springs to mind. Yet, Paris didn't go crazy in its real estate prices and has since not seen the drastic drops NYC is facing. Interesting. But most importantly, there are still areas of Paris that are close to the center of the city that have been left to the working class whereas NYC was trying to absolve these areas completely.