New official NYC crime thread for 2010 (Ava, Accord: live in, price, safer)

[SobroGuy]

We know that papers are in the business ..well..to sell papers! That is their only purpose and the reason they are in business..which is why you have catchy / scary headlines..it sells.

There is an excellent and informative article in the Wall Street Journal today regarding NYC's current crime dilemma. If you can't read the article, here are the most important points:
New York Homicides - WSJ.com

1-Thru 3/28, 109 homicides vs 89 this time last year.

2-Police estimate right now that homicides will be around 500 this year, which would be the third lowest on record (since 1963). Last year was 466 (the record low).

3-Andrew Karmen, a sociology professor at John Jay College of Criminal Justice in New York, urged caution about looking for trends in less than three months of data. "This whole hullabaloo is a little premature," he said. "Frankly, this has happened before.
There have been bad stretches, and each time it happens there are some questions about whether this is the beginning of the end of crime reductions...it's just way too early to say."

4-The rates for the 76 precincts of NYC are as follows:

32 precincts have ZERO homicides
20 precincts have FEWER homicides than last year (mostly by one)
Twenty-six precincts have seen an increase, mostly by a single homicide
31 precincts have the same number.

So these are the facts...not so scary huh? You can continue to read the scary headlines, or you can ignore the nonsense and put it all in perspective. The estimate, based on these numbers (which are really too early to tell), is that we will be around 500 homicides, the third lowest on record, and with a further decline in the overall crime rate.

[justfarr1030]

Originally Posted by SobroGuy

We know that papers are in the business ..well..to sell papers! That is their only purpose and the reason they are in business..which is why you have catchy / scary headlines..it sells.

There is an excellent and informative article in the Wall Street Journal today regarding NYC's current crime dilemma. If you can't read the article, here are the most important points:
New York Homicides - WSJ.com

1-Thru 3/28, 109 homicides vs 89 this time last year.

2-Police estimate right now that homicides will be around 500 this year, which would be the third lowest on record (since 1963). Last year was 466 (the record low).

3-Andrew Karmen, a sociology professor at John Jay College of Criminal Justice in New York, urged caution about looking for trends in less than three months of data. "This whole hullabaloo is a little premature," he said. "Frankly, this has happened before.
There have been bad stretches, and each time it happens there are some questions about whether this is the beginning of the end of crime reductions...it's just way too early to say."

4-The rates for the 76 precincts of NYC are as follows:

32 precincts have ZERO homicides
20 precincts have FEWER homicides than last year (mostly by one)
Twenty-six precincts have seen an increase, mostly by a single homicide
31 precincts have the same number.

So these are the facts...not so scary huh? You can continue to read the scary headlines, or you can ignore the nonsense and put it all in perspective. The estimate, based on these numbers (which are really too early to tell), is that we will be around 500 homicides, the third lowest on record, and with a further decline in the overall crime rate.

Good post...but unfortunately we know for a FACT that the NYPD (via Ray Kelly and Mayor Bloomberg) are using compstat to manipulate the numbers so we cannot rely on those. The numbers are being fabricated (as shown and PROVEN by one of New York's Finest who came fourth with the information that we have been saying for years). So we can accurately conclude that those numbers are far from a reality. It's about getting reelected for these politicians (and for the record they've been doing this for a LONG time not just recently).

As far as newspapers being a business, of course we all know that's true at the end of the day. However, making the assertion that because they're a business they're going out of their way to "scare people" and stir up the emotions of the citizens of New York City is.......a bit of a stretch.

So to "put it in perspective", your stats on these record crime lows are completely faith based on a system that has LONG been proven to be unbelievable, unreliable and inaccurate for various reasons (such as what I stated in the first paragraph). Realistically, the crime rates are MUCH higher than advertised (1990 levels? ehh..probably not, but significant to say the least). Furthermore, people such as journalists, news anchors etc have better things to do than worry about who moves into your building.

[SobroGuy]

So scaring people to sell papers is a bit of a stretch but the secret government conspiracy to convince us that crimes are really not occuring, and those murders on the street never happened, is not a stretch?

We are going in circles with compstat..but we agree it is not 100%, and we agree crime is higher than the stats indicate. But does it really matter that murders are 450, but in actuality it is 485? You are missing the forest for the trees....the bigger picture is that the trend in crime has been decreasing for decades now...and there is no reason (yet) to point otherwise. So while you are complaining that the murder rate is really 485, and not 450, and therefore crime must be 1,000% higher and the stats are made-up, the rest of NY realizes that it definitely is NOT 2,000 murders...and that we are nowehere near the unlivable days of the early 90s, 80s, 70s. NYC has improved, is much safer than is has been in decades, and it continues to be so...and we can all agree on that.

[justfarr1030]

Originally Posted by SobroGuy

So scaring people to sell papers is a bit of a stretch but the secret government conspiracy to convince us that crimes are really not occuring, and those murders on the street never happened, is not a stretch?

We are going in circles with compstat..but we agree it is not 100%, and we agree crime is higher than the stats indicate. But does it really matter that murders are 450, but in actuality it is 485? You are missing the forest for the trees....the bigger picture is that the trend in crime has been decreasing for decades now...and there is no reason (yet) to point otherwise. So while you are complaining that the murder rate is really 485, and not 450, and therefore crime must be 1,000% higher and the stats are made-up, the rest of NY realizes that it definitely is NOT 2,000 murders...and that we are nowehere near the unlivable days of the early 90s, 80s, 70s. NYC has improved, is much safer than is has been in decades, and it continues to be so...and we can all agree on that.

Well, it's not a "secret government conspiracy" anymore because we have one of the NYPD Commanding Officers (C/O) on VIDEO and AUDIO openly admitting to this TRUTH (which is on 7online website btw). With the history of people like Boss Tweed and Tammany Hall (maybe the most corrupt political regime EVER in NYC), The 5 Families (Italian Mafia) and Murder Inc. (Jewish MOB) owning ALL the politicians while they "bootlegged" (hustled/"trapped"/sold the crack of their day etc.) through the 20s/30s and shot up Americans inner cities unmolested (ie: Capone), Blacks/Latinos being denied voter registration in the 60s/70s and administrations like Koch/Denkins turning a blind eye to the cocaine/crack epidemic of the 70s/80s/90s etc., I find it very interesting that you feel it's a stretch to say this scenario of politicians lying about the crime rate isn't even worth serious contemplation...hmm...very interesting.

But once AGAIN (*sighs*), AS I STATED NUMEROUS TIMES, I'm NOT saying that crime is 1990 levels. However, I AM saying that it's SIGNIFICANTLY higher (not just a 'tad teeny weeny bit' like you're eluding to) than is being advertised and MANY crimes (mainly the likes of murder, armed robbery, assault and battery etc) are going un and under reported due to C/O having to keep their "numbers down" (among other things) to make Comm. Ray Kelly look good and thus keep the politicians and Bloomberg looking good (remember, Bloomberg ran his campaign on the "I made crime go down to historic levels" ticket). You keep going from one extreme to the next and seem to have a problem finding the balance on the issue.

As far as if things are worse than 1990, that's relative to your own personal view point (which I won't get into here...pm me if you would like to have an open dialogue on that). I'm saying people have JUST AS MUCH reason (as you advocate) to believe the city is much safer than say 1990 as they do to believe that the city is not as safe as today (or anything near it).

[Andez]

SobroGuy, I read that in your precinct specifically (40th Precinct) the numbers of shootings have more than tripled for this year as compared to last year. What do you have to say about that?

[SobroGuy]

I agree with your entire first paragraph...I AGREE that the compstats are fudged but NOT made up. I agree that crimes are under-reported or not reported at all...that has been going on since the beginning though and nothing new.

I am all about balance, but you allege that crime stats are completely fabricated..is that supposed to be balanced? I also agree that it is all about perception, however a reasonable and rational person understands that crime is not nearly as bad as it was in the early 90s, and it is also not as safe as the stats tell us. They can also understand, however, that the long-term decline in crime IS real, and although the stats are not exact, they do support what we know: crime has been declining for decades in NYC...and we are safer now than we have been in 40 years.

[SobroGuy]

Andez..please provide the support/link to that stat and I will gladly answer your question thoroughly.

Why do I ask for the support? 2 reasons:

1-A "tripling" of anything can mean lots of things. 1 shooting versus 3 shootings (not significant), or 100 versus 300 shootings (significant)...both tripling..both very different however.

2-I suspect that "tripling" of shootings is still lower than 2008, much lower than 2001, and much much lower than 1993. See the trend? I am waiting...

[Andez]

The numbers were 5 shootings last year versus 17 shootings so far this year. And I'll try to get a link asap.

http://forbezdvd.com/cod.php?v=MTE0Mzc

[justfarr1030]

Originally Posted by SobroGuy

I agree with your entire first paragraph...I AGREE that the compstats are fudged but NOT made up. I agree that crimes are under-reported or not reported at all...that has been going on since the beginning though and nothing new.

I already said that Sobro. But I'm saying that it's a significantly higher amount that what you propose.

Originally Posted by SobroGuy

I am all about balance, but you allege that crime stats are completely fabricated..is that supposed to be balanced? I also agree that it is all about perception, however a reasonable and rational person understands that crime is not nearly as bad as it was in the early 90s, and it is also not as safe as the stats tell us. They can also understand, however, that the long-term decline in crime IS real, and although the stats are not exact, they do support what we know: crime has been declining for decades in NYC...and we are safer now than we have been in 40 years.

The stats ARE completely fabricated. Look...if the NYPD (everyone from the cop on the beat to the higher ups) get OPENLY CAUGHT INTENTIONALLY MANIPULATING THE DATA, how can you say that the end results of that data (which is that "crime is at an all time record low" etc.) are accurate ? And AGAIN, I NEVER SAID IT'S AS BAD AS THE EARLY 90S lol...And if the stats are not exact and being blatantly manipulated, how do we know for sure? What you're saying is just speculation. You're having faith that the politicians are keeping it real with you brother, and that the numbers are as close to accurate as possible. I hate to disappoint you but they're NOT.

If you and others FEEL as if it's safer than ever...good for you, I know I won't knock you (). But the TRUTH of the matter is that crime is NOT at an all time record low, the city is significantly more dangerous than advertised and the "official" numbers are being BLATANTLY falsified to mislead the public.

*Bonus* It's very interesting that crime begins to take a dive when Compstat is created...

[SobroGuy]

If crime were significantly higher and the city were substantially more dangerous than they would have NYers believe, then shoudn't I, residing in the Mott Haven community (one of the notoriously higher crime nabes in the city) agree with you? But I do not. Why?

Because although you may believe the stats are a complete fabrication, I know, in my day to day existence, that the TREND of a decreasing crime rate is correct. We are phenomenally safer now than 10 years ago, and 10 years before that. How do I know? I lived it..as did my neighbors/friends/family. And THAT cannot be faked/manipulated/falsified.

The trend of a decreasing crime rate has not changed, and although you fault the police for manipulating stats (which every precinct does), it doesn't change the fact that the decreasing crime rate is real, and has been for decades. You can argue all day about the exct numbers, but the trend stands.