New official NYC crime thread for 2010 (Webster, Bedford: buying, company, sell)

[anon1]

Definition of record lows for those who do not understand- Lowest levels of crime this city has ever seen (thus the word "record"). We are not at record lows this year. The fact that there are increases alone should give you a sense that we are not at record lows so to continue posting that is starting to seem as if you have some sort of agenda. Again im not trying to start a war of words with anybody but as for me im here to tell it like it is. Im not here to convince people that we live in Baghdad but at the same time im not here trying to lobby others to come over to NYC or convince them that we are the safest big city in the world, when, unless if you simply follow that one flashy statistic "500 murders in a city of 8 million" you know that thats not the case.
It really is convenient though how you knock people for using percentages when they say 44% increase in murders and you come and say that the reality is only a jump from 9-13 when you use those same statistics to make your point about the city being safe. "8 million + 48 million tourists or whatever (again your words) equals 500 murders out of 56 million. and then we have to discount 400 other murders because they were done again according to you by dealers and gang members... So im guessing that those type of murders do not occur in other cities...? Im sorry but that is really flawed logic.

Now i'll give you this and this is just MHO... 2005-2009 were some of the safest years we have ever had just going on what I saw in general in my neighborhood, old neighborhoods, other areas in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx that I visited on numerous occasions... we had calm years. Not exactly safe, but calm. Now that being said, it just seems as if this year, (again going on what I see but you can check the stats for yourself) that 2010 has seen a sharp increase from the previous couple of years.

Again you can repeat yourself over and over (im not sure if you've eclipsed the century mark in repetition but you may have) saying people are fear-mongering and making the city seem quite dangerous but if you do so, bring up a specific comment that you are referring to. Whenever I talk about you're comments I quote you and I quote others to refute your points about them fear-mongering. Yet you fail to do that everytime. You simply state that people are fear-mongering and then continue with your point that the city is worlds safer than it was 40 years later and that we are at record lows... spell it out with me 2-0-1-0. Not 2-0-0-9. I dont want to hear 2009 is the safest year on record again because we are not in 2009. Im not saying that this city is going to start another crime wave as the years continue and im not gonna say that this is simply a blip on a decreasing trend when we cannot know for sure until next year comes along. But for right now, what I will try to discuss without being belittled or labeled a fear-mongerer is discuss the crime that does happen in 2010 and that is continuing to happen. With your permission, I would like to talk about what im supposed to talk about on this thread, so again with your permission... is that okay?

[anon1]

And I will give you this... "those comments about ohh man there was a shootout on my block, this neighborhood is crazy" have to be disreguarded and I have seen that a couple of times on here. But again, people are just discussing the rising crime rate in their specific neighborhoods which in a small way does contribute to this thread. Although it isn't of the same level of importance as actual "statistics" (I'll use that word lightly, because the NYPD stats are comical compared to others in the country), it does count for something within this thread...

[SobroGuy]

Anon please take your time and read my post:

-We are at record lows means we are not at THE record low, but we are among the lowest levels of crime since the 1960s. Despite the uptick in the murder rate, we are still among the lowest levels (aka record lows). This is not "biased" statement, it is based on our crime rates over the past 40+ years.

-I don't knock people for using percentages, I knock people who use percentages when they are intentionally trying to mislead people. He purposelly threw out the 44% to make it seem like things are out of control. He knows the raw numbers as well as I do, but still chose to play the stats game to scare people (that's what someone with an agenda does). I clarified that stat with the actual raw number to show it is miniscule. (that's what someone who tries to keep the conversation honest reasonable and fair does).

-The reality of murder in NYC is that 80% of victims know the perpetrator, and 70% of these murders are drug related. These are not my facts, these are city-wide. So if you discount approx 80% (these are all very round numbers) of the drug dealing murders from 500, that leaves 100 REAL murders that affects every day NYers. 100 murders out of a city of 8 million, a city with 2 million + commuters daily, and 45+ million tourists every year. You do the math. I ain't worried about being murdered, regular NYers shouldn't be, but it DOES happen...but so does winning the lotto.

-The only time I label anyone as fear-mongering is when they purposely try to mislead/scare people. which happens often on here, or simply post crimes and say "see crime is crazy here." That is simply wrong and nothing but fear mongering.

I am happy to discuss crime in NYC all day and night (as you can see). I think people's opinions about crime are important, and the crime around them shapes their views, however it is critical to understand that what you see out your window is not necessarily reality for the rest of NYC. Bloomberg's sparkling clean/safe UES view of crime in NYC is no more correct than the welfare kid's view of crime in the housing projects....they are parts of the crime rate of NYC, but neither one individually represents a correct assumption about NYC's crime rate.

-

[anon1]

Three things... 1) Now you read people's minds as well... Whether he knew the full stats or not, the fact of the matter is that he was providing factual information about the crime rate which you just said you have no problem with and yet you tried to refute it...

2) You claim that many on this thread are fear-mongerers, yet despite me pleading for you to back it up with evidence and provide just one (1) quote where I can actually see that what you are saying is facts, you cant provide it for me. You hide behind your true motives by claiming that you are simply helping to provide facts that show NYC is the safest big city in the world and yet you do the same thing that you blame others on here for doing except the opposite which brings me to my third point...

3) You use the facts for your own agenda as well. you have used the only stat you can use for this year with that 500 or 100 out of 8 million as your pitch to convince us that this city is relatively calm... Yet unlike the poster that brought up the 44% which we know for a fact that that is a true statement, your whole idea about the 2 million commuters and 45 million tourists (again really...) has never been provided with a link to confirm... So what do we have to go on? Your expert opinion?

The same type of opinion which others use to discuss their neighborhood you disqualify because its irrelevant... The only thing I'll agree with you about is that last comment you made about us being somewhere in between the view of the kid in the projects and Bloomberg's safe view of the city because we are nowhere near where Bloomberg and I think you as well want everyone to assume we are, but not everyone lives like that kid in the Sutter projects either...

All im saying is that if you use the stats to claim that the city is safe, as long as their facts, let others use the facts to refute those points and have an intelligent conversation about it as well. No need for belittling others comments, or disqualifying them for their age, neighborhood, race, gender or whatever other reasons cause when you do so whether you want to admit it or not, you are really bringing the point you're trying to make, down. Btw, when it comes to the neighborhood aspect which you have tried to disqualify me for where I currently live many times... Despite the fact that my neighborhood is no picnic, I am going to say one last thing which should be the last time we talk about neighborhoods being an issue on qualifications... Just because someone who has lived in the hood his entire life chooses to move out and make a better life for himself, doesnt disqualify them in any way once they have moved out of being unfit to comment about crime. That really is just an ignorant hood mentality type of thing when people use that... not upset, just saying.

[SobroGuy]

Anon....I try to make it simple for you but you keep being confused..not sure how that happens.

1-I didn't try to refute his 44% numbers, I CLARIFIED it. His 44% number is correct, but it only equates to an increase in the murder rate of 4 people!

2-I never claimed NYC is the safest big city in the world, I said NYC is safest big city in the US. And I provided links...reading comprehension is key here.

3-There have been numerous links previously about the number of tourists coming to NYC..I didn't make up that number. Don't go on my expert opinion, a simple google search on your part would provide that information. I won't do it again, you will continue to just believe whatever you want to believe.

If you move out of NYC, it is incumbent upon you to convince me why you believe you know how crime is TODAY? Because you visit? Read the papers? Hear things from people who are still there? I will take the word of those who live in NYC NOW when it comes to all things NYC TODAY, including crime, before I take the word of someone who USED to live in NYC about things in NYC TODAY. However, I will happily take your word for how things USED TO BE when you lived here. Get it?

[anon1]

Wooooooow... to all those reading Sobroguys posts he just lost all credibility... Im not talking about Ridgewood New Jersey intelligent one who bashes my reading ability when its perfectly fine...

Ridgewood, Queens... last time I checked, was in NYC. Please, continue to write things of no value, it just further proves my point...

I think with this last comment, you really just lost your whole argument right there and showed how little you really know of NYC, i dont even have to respond to the other comments and how you went around in circles once again without addressing any of my points cause what you just said made absolutely no sense...

Ridgewood, QUEENS is not a part of NYC... classic... just classic

[overdose]

what an exciting discussion.... I must see more!!!

Originally Posted by SobroGuy

Hehe...SuperWario at least you show respect by using my original name...I appreciate that young Jedi. As far as the increase in murder, that 44% increase sounds scary indeed! The reality? It is an increase from 9 to 13...a "whopping" increase of 4. Gotta love how people throw around statistics when they know the actual numbers are small.

But since we are playing the stats game...ok:

-Since 1990 the murder rate is DOWN -80.6%, the overall crime rate is DOWN -77.3%
-Since 2001 the murder rate is DOWN -48.1%, the overall crime rate is DOWN -22.55%

So I would say...yeah...we are doing just fine. 1 year does not a trend make...eventually we had to have an up year...Moderator cut: Language happens..welcome to the real world. However, despite the 1 year of an increase we are still at record lows...believe it.

i looked into that and found that actually:

Since 2001 the murder rate is DOWN 17.3%
the overall crime rate is DOWN 35.62% (according to nypd)

[SobroGuy]

Anon...I thought it was Ridgewood, NJ....which is why I was so confused as to why you would still be talking about NYC....makes sense now. When people say they left the ghetto and moved to Ridgewood, I think of leaving to NJ, not just to Ridgewood, Queens. Made me laugh though.

Overdose...you should also keep in mind that the stats have been played with (to put it nicely) for some time, and we know they are not anywhere near 100% accurate. However we all agree that crime is down precipitously from the ridiculous highs of early 1990s, and mostly everyone agrees it is down from the early 2000s as well. We also know this year has shown a spike in the murder rate, but one must wonder whether that spike is due to the NYPD getting caught and now dealing more accurately with stats, or it is a real spike in murder, or both.

[SammyG167]

Sobroguy, Moderator cut: Rude I know nyc is not as bad as it used to be but if it continues the way its been for a while, it can be just as bad. I live in the south bronx, in tiffany, not that bad of a neighborhood. I was one of the first to notice how crime took a major decrease during the 2000s. But I will be the first to say that now, crime has taken a pretty noticeable increase. There are people getting stuck up and shot almost everyday in my block now. I was just playing basketball in my blocks park, saw a few fights and later in the day someone got shot 3 times right in front of me and one of those bullets were so close to hitting me. So ummmm, for someone who has been living here in the past 16 years and not seen much in my block(though the surrounding blocks are quite dangerous), I have seen A LOT Moderator cut: Implied language, not necessary since the spring, 4 lives have been taking here this summer alone.

[SuperMario]

Originally Posted by SammyG167

Sobroguy, Moderator cut: Rude I know nyc is not as bad as it used to be but if it continues the way its been for a while, it can be just as bad. I live in the south bronx, in tiffany, not that bad of a neighborhood. I was one of the first to notice how crime took a major decrease during the 2000s. But I will be the first to say that now, crime has taken a pretty noticeable increase. There are people getting stuck up and shot almost everyday in my block now. I was just playing basketball in my blocks park, saw a few fights and later in the day someone got shot 3 times right in front of me and one of those bullets were so close to hitting me. So ummmm, for someone who has been living here in the past 16 years and not seen much in my block(though the surrounding blocks are quite dangerous), I have seen A LOT Moderator cut: Implied language, not necessary since the spring, 4 lives have been taking here this summer alone.

You live in a very very tough neighborhood.