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You read me correctly. I see interest rates going down. I think this is supported by the recent 3Q GDP data showing growth at just 1.6%. This is a significant drop from 2Q GDP. Not negative yet but quickly headed in that direction (If I'm not mistaken 2 or 3 quarters of negative GDP = recession, 7 quarters = depression). You are not imagining the weakness in real estate. I feel this weakness is a HUGE part of what is causing the drastic reduction in GDP growth.
If we hit another recession (which I think we will within a year or so) interest rates will go back down.
Please take my opinions with a grain of salt. I guess I should say "I am not an economist I just play one on the internet "
Yes, I am a home owner.
VERY INTERESTING... I too am not an economist but always thought that the fed will increase interest rates in order to curb inflation. but it isn't always as simple as that and therefor I do understand you theory... I wish I payed more attention in my college economics class
so, lets say they lower interest rates and we go into recession. do you think that home prices will continue to devalue and prices will fall with your scenario? or will they rise?
lastly, how do you look up the GDP? I would like to read more about it thanks...
so, lets say they lower interest rates and we go into recession. do you think that home prices will continue to devalue and prices will fall with your scenario? or will they rise?
ok, never mind I see that you had stated earlier that prices will not drop of fall anywhere but rather stabilize along with the feds LOWERING interest rates.
I disagree... this scenario will prompt a market collapse. As it is, people can barely afford to live in the state. but than again you live upstate so this may not pertain to you.
ok, never mind I see that you had stated earlier that prices will not drop of fall anywhere but rather stabilize along with the feds LOWERING interest rates.
I disagree... this scenario will prompt a market collapse. As it is, people can barely afford to live in the state. but than again you live upstate so this may not pertain to you.
Yes, the fact that I live upstate (Albany area to be exact) probably does have a big impact on my opinion. The median home price around here has been hovering around 200k the last few months. I tried to search for Westchester median prices and found one site that had it at mid 500k and another at almost 750k. Both numbers were supposedly from specific months in 2006. Do you know what the actual number is? I would say that if it's closer to the 500k+ number that prices will stabilize. After all it is a very upscale county commutable to NYC. However, if it is closer to the 750k number all bets are off.
Yes, the fact that I live upstate (Albany area to be exact) probably does have a big impact on my opinion. The median home price around here has been hovering around 200k the last few months. I tried to search for Westchester median prices and found one site that had it at mid 500k and another at almost 750k. Both numbers were supposedly from specific months in 2006. Do you know what the actual number is? I would say that if it's closer to the 500k+ number that prices will stabilize. After all it is a very upscale county commutable to NYC. However, if it is closer to the 750k number all bets are off.
according to the westchester county board of realtors (WCBR) the median home price in westchester county in the third quarter of 2006 is $712,125 so I agree again that it should actually drop to about $500,000 and I presume that it will do that in about 1-2 years from now.
if interested in thier report on westcheter they (WCBR) list it on thier web site from 1981 just click onto the "sales stats" to get the pdf's... link is:
(broken link)
On another note I am amazed that the average in your area (albany) is 200K... man, that represents almost 400% increased difference within the same state. Being so close to NYC is way overated IMO.
Last edited by Yac; 11-02-2006 at 07:54 AM..
Reason: realtor link
I live in weschester (white plains area) and I am always scanning the market. Prices dipped a bit the last 8 months and I mean just a bit, prices are not going down, they seem to have become stable.
Westchester prices rose a steady 10-12% over the last 5 years so the growth was not so expolsive, also many of the original owners sold off years ago, that leaves homeowners who dont have a lot of room for negotiation. I'm seeing homes being pulled off the market after 4-5 months, I guess their waiting it out since they have too much vested to dump their homes.
The area below route 287 which is the east west corridor in westchester
is considered prime real estate, just 25 minutes to Manhattan.
Now if you want to live 15 miles north you can try the suburb of Yorktown Heights, great schools (top 10%of the nation) and a large family community. Taxes are 8-10 K 500K will get you a decent split on 1/2 acre
I live in weschester (white plains area) and I am always scanning the market. Prices dipped a bit the last 8 months and I mean just a bit, prices are not going down, they seem to have become stable.
Westchester prices rose a steady 10-12% over the last 5 years so the growth was not so expolsive, also many of the original owners sold off years ago, that leaves homeowners who dont have a lot of room for negotiation. I'm seeing homes being pulled off the market after 4-5 months, I guess their waiting it out since they have too much vested to dump their homes.
The area below route 287 which is the east west corridor in westchester
is considered prime real estate, just 25 minutes to Manhattan.
Now if you want to live 15 miles north you can try the suburb of Yorktown Heights, great schools (top 10%of the nation) and a large family community. Taxes are 8-10 K 500K will get you a decent split on 1/2 acre
are you currently a home owner or looking for one?
I'm starting to see more and more homes coming on the market in my area... Its just that the prices are not droping fast enough. Major indicators show a major correction in the market overdue in 2007. anyone have any feelings about this?
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no drop
