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Hello all... I'm new to this board but sure am glad that I found you! My wife and I have been looking for a home for the past 5 years only to see the prices go through the roof on the verge of becoming unaffordable. I am an architect so I want to buy a home that I can build upon. That said you need land. As you all know finding that in westchester NY is impossible. However, I have been noticing a market trend change... I'm sure everyone will agree that it is no longer a sellers market where they dictate the price only to have buyers pay more for asking. Its been crazy HUH?
anyhow, here are my questions:
1. how many of you think that home prices in the NY area will fall?
2. How long will it take and how much of a fall are you antisapating?
3. how many of you do not antisapate any home price reduction but just a slowdown in the price increases?
OK, nobody else is chiming in, so I will (I figured this would be a writhing can-o-worms thread in no time!).
If by 'NY' you mean NYC, I don't think prices will fall in the near future. Maybe plateau, but unless something dire happens (another 9/11, flu epidemic, the bedbug infestation REALLY notches up a few....) I don't believe prices will fall. Outside NYC and environs, yes, I think prices will fall, but how much will depend on specifics of the region, etc. I do think that we are heading for an eventual collapse of an unsustainable system, but that will be quite a while, and when that comes what the real-estate market is doing will be the least of our concerns (actually there will be no real-estate market)!
OK, nobody else is chiming in, so I will (I figured this would be a writhing can-o-worms thread in no time!).
If by 'NY' you mean NYC, I don't think prices will fall in the near future. Maybe plateau, but unless something dire happens (another 9/11, flu epidemic, the bedbug infestation REALLY notches up a few....) I don't believe prices will fall. Outside NYC and environs, yes, I think prices will fall, but how much will depend on specifics of the region, etc. I do think that we are heading for an eventual collapse of an unsustainable system, but that will be quite a while, and when that comes what the real-estate market is doing will be the least of our concerns (actually there will be no real-estate market)!
can you elaborate more on your comment? you mentioned that an eventual collapse in the market is eminent. but that it wont come for a while. Can you take a guess as to how long this collapse that you speack of will take? Just wondering if you are a real estate broker or have knowledge in it ect. Thanks for contributing...
I can't speak for westchester, but on LI we have almost 3 times the inventory we had just over 1 year ago. I look at the listings everyday for sport & many areas have already seen houses drop 50k or more. Of course this is relative to the fact that they are so overvalued to start with.
I know a handful of newlyweds that "rushed" for various reasons in 2005 to buy, they all say they couldn't sell those homes for what they paid just a year later.
If you are a buyer don't get wrapped up in the "historically low" interest rate trap. Be smart & take a fixed loan at the best rate you can get when you find a home you love priced RIGHT.
I read an article last week about 7 TRILLION dollars in U.S. adjustable rate mortgages will "reset" in 2007, in many cases doubling the payment for people that have no equity. A job loss or illness will force those people into default, there will be a big rise in foreclosures & in a couple of years it will look like 1988-1990(for those of you that remember) all over again.
Unless you find a sweet deal, or you NEED to buy right now-I'd sit tight a bit longer.
By collapse of the market, I mean the 'greater' market (stock, bond, etc. as well as real estate). Our economic system, and for the most part the global economic system is dependent on cheap energy and is predicated on the notion of perpetual growth. There will never be an alternative to oil that is as cheap and easy as that fuel has been (yes, there are many who have 'faith' that human technological ingenuity will come up with something, not unlike those who believed the alchemists would someday find a way to synthesize gold...), and we live in what is essentially a closed system, earth. You cannot have perpetual growth in a closed system. As a global system we are starting to push up against the limits of both growth and cheap energy, and sooner or later something will give (5 years, 10 year, maybe 20?).
I agree with Kelly: "Be smart & take a fixed loan at the best rate you can get when you find a home you love priced RIGHT."
I'd further that with "get it paid of as quickly as you can." I firmly disagree with the notion that it's better to carry a low rate mortgage and put your money in the stock market where it *can* earn a few percentage points more than what you pay in your mortgage. It can also LOSE money in the market. Sure, your house can lose value, but you can still live in it. Hard to live in a brokerage account....
I can't speak for westchester, but on LI we have almost 3 times the inventory we had just over 1 year ago. I look at the listings everyday for sport & many areas have already seen houses drop 50k or more. Of course this is relative to the fact that they are so overvalued to start with.
I know a handful of newlyweds that "rushed" for various reasons in 2005 to buy, they all say they couldn't sell those homes for what they paid just a year later.
If you are a buyer don't get wrapped up in the "historically low" interest rate trap. Be smart & take a fixed loan at the best rate you can get when you find a home you love priced RIGHT.
I read an article last week about 7 TRILLION dollars in U.S. adjustable rate mortgages will "reset" in 2007, in many cases doubling the payment for people that have no equity. A job loss or illness will force those people into default, there will be a big rise in foreclosures & in a couple of years it will look like 1988-1990(for those of you that remember) all over again.
Unless you find a sweet deal, or you NEED to buy right now-I'd sit tight a bit longer.
amen- I totally agree with you. and I do remember the high of 1988 and the subsequent lows of the following years with forclosures to be had. funny that I feel the exact same way about interst rates too.
I will add that it is important to remember that interest rates fluctuate... they rise and then fall then rise again. BUT... when you buy a home the price set on your loan is that which is negotiated at the time of closing. Therefor you can refinance into a new interest rate loan but you can't reset the loan amount (homepurchase price). In the long run you are better off just waiting for a better priced home than a better priced interest rate. Just my .02
amen- I totally agree with you. and I do remember the high of 1988 and the subsequent lows of the following years with forclosures to be had. funny that I feel the exact same way about interst rates too.
I will add that it is important to remember that interest rates fluctuate... they rise and then fall then rise again. BUT... when you buy a home the price set on your loan is that which is negotiated at the time of closing. Therefor you can refinance into a new interest rate loan but you can't reset the loan amount (homepurchase price). In the long run you are better off just waiting for a better priced home than a better priced interest rate. Just my .02
I'm probably not the first to say it, but I "made up" my own little saying...
Hello all... I'm new to this board but sure am glad that I found you! My wife and I have been looking for a home for the past 5 years only to see the prices go through the roof on the verge of becoming unaffordable. I am an architect so I want to buy a home that I can build upon. That said you need land. As you all know finding that in westchester NY is impossible. However, I have been noticing a market trend change... I'm sure everyone will agree that it is no longer a sellers market where they dictate the price only to have buyers pay more for asking. Its been crazy HUH?
anyhow, here are my questions:
1. how many of you think that home prices in the NY area will fall?
2. How long will it take and how much of a fall are you antisapating?
3. how many of you do not antisapate any home price reduction but just a slowdown in the price increases?
I'm from california, in the process of selling my home and moving to NY state.
About 2-3 years ago the house market (in Calif.) was totally out of control and it was a sellers market with seemingly no end in sight. But this year, that bubble has finally bursted and the market has gone into a decline, now resulting in a buyers market. And 2007, will appear to get worse before it gets better. So my point is, is it sounds like NY state will begin to experience a similiar trend, which will definitely benefit buyers.
I guess I have a hard time believing prices will DROP, I'm guessing they will stabilize... not that I know anything, LOL.
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