Upstate NY Winter Statistics (Buffalo, Rochester: university, suburbs, moving)

[jbertol2]

Hey all, and happy new year!

This past semester (I'm a junior at the University of Rochester) I took a class called Economic Statistics, and for a final project, I had the opportunity to conduct some statistical research on a topic of my choice. So I decided to compare the winters of the four major Upstate cities--Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse, and Albany--just to see how much of difference there was between them.

I compared the cities on four variables: snowfall, wind speed, extreme low temperature, and cloud cover. I used all of the available data from 1978-2006 provided online by NOAA (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/stationlocator.html), and I defined a winter as the period from Dec. 1 to March 31. And if you're wondering how accurate the statistics are, I got a 100% on the project, so they should be pretty good .

I'm only going to throw some of the more interesting figures from the report in this thread, but if you're interested in looking at the whole thing, you can here: http://mail.rochester.edu/~jbertol2/Project.pdf (broken link)

Also, because I still have all of the data, I'd be happy to produce a statistic not shown here, by request. For example, if you want to know the average number of sunny days (80% possible sunlight) in Rochester in the winter, I could tell you!

Snowfall:





Extreme Low Temperature:





Windy Days:



Cloudy Days:

[BuffaloTransplant]

For Buffalo, I think it is pretty accurate except for one factor. It validates the facts we are not the coldest, the snowiest, and that we get most of our snow early -- prior to the end of lake effect snow ( that basically stops when Lake Erie freezes over), and that we do get more wind ( also due to the lake). However, I think I would contest the lack of sunlight... yes, we get clouds -- only NOAA is for all WNY and it basically takes in all the clouds over Lakes Erie and Ontario ... and they are there most of the time ( it is water vapor). That doesn't mean the rest of the area doesn't get sun... and our sun reflects off the snow and days are basically bright.

[I'minformed2]

I know in Rochester, and I'd imagine even moreso in Buffalo.....the coldest days tend to be the sunniest. Take today for instance; the temperature is about 15 degrees right now and probably won't get any warmer; feels like 3 outside; but the sun is out. Typically, durring winter, if the daytime peak temperature is below 20 degees, or above 45; the sun will come out. Anywhere in between; its usually mostly cloudy to overcast.

[anniebird]

Thanks for posting your data -- very interesting!!

[bellafinzi]

jbertol2, great post!

Everyone should keep two things in mind when looking at weather statistics for Upstate NY(particularly for Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse, less so for Albany)....

1. Weather is very localized.... Great Lakes and terrain are big factors.
2. The local airport is where the weather data is taken.

Why does this matter?

For Upstate NY cities the location of the airport in one suburb (example: northern suburb) will report very different weather data than if the airport is located in another suburb (southern suburb). So, where your airport is located within your metropolitan area is a very important factor that is often overlooked. More so for snow, cloud cover and wind (less so for temperature).



Buffalo, NY- Airport location is northeast suburbs

Northeast suburbs: less snow, less cloud cover, less windy
Southern suburbs: more snow, more cloud cover, more windy

Conclusion: Buffalo's Airport is in a prime location for optimum weather statistics in Metropolitan Buffalo

Rochester, NY - Airport location is southwest suburbs farther from Lake Ontario

Suburbs farther from Lake Ontario: less snow, less cloud cover, less windy
Suburbs close to Lake Ontario: more snow, more cloud cover, more windy

Conclusion: Rochester's Airport is in a prime location for optimum weather statistics in Metropolitan Rochester

Syracuse, NY - Airport location is the northern suburbs closer to the Snow belt

Western/Eastern suburbs: less snow, less cloud cover
Northern suburbs: more snow, more cloud cover

Conclusion: Syracuse's Airport is in a prime location for the worst weather statistics in Metropolitan Syracuse




What am I saying? When you look at these statistics, just realize that where you live within the Metropolitan area is almost as important as which Metropolitan area you live in.

For example, if you live in the southern suburbs of Buffalo, you will experience more snow, cloud cover and more wind than what is reported at the Buffalo Airport. And if you live in the Western or Eastern suburbs of Syracuse, you will experience less snow or cloud cover than what is reported at the Syracuse Airport.

[BuffaloTransplant]

Originally Posted by bellafinzi

jbertol2, great post!

Everyone should keep two things in mind when looking at weather statistics for Upstate NY(particularly for Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse, less so for Albany)....

1. Weather is very localized.... Great Lakes and terrain are big factors.
2. The local airport is where the weather data is taken.

Why does this matter?

For Upstate NY cities the location of the airport in one suburb (example: northern suburb) will report very different weather data than if the airport is located in another suburb (southern suburb). So, where your airport is located within your metropolitan area is a very important factor that is often overlooked. More so for snow, cloud cover and wind (less so for temperature).



Buffalo, NY- Airport location is northeast suburbs

Northeast suburbs: less snow, less cloud cover, less windy
Southern suburbs: more snow, more cloud cover, more windy

Conclusion: Buffalo's Airport is in a prime location for optimum weather statistics in Metropolitan Buffalo


What am I saying? When you look at these statistics, just realize that where you live within the Metropolitan area is almost as important as which Metropolitan area you live in.

For example, if you live in the southern suburbs of Buffalo, you will experience more snow, cloud cover and more wind than what is reported at the Buffalo Airport. And if you live in the Western or Eastern suburbs of Syracuse, you will experience less snow or cloud cover than what is reported at the Syracuse Airport.

Bella is right about localized information.

Re: Buffalo. The airport is east of the city in Cheektowaga [and on the same geographical plain]. When you go farther east maybe 2 miles into Bowmansville / Lancaster, you cross a major road [Transit Rd.] and the temperature drops immediately. Reason, it is a geographical feature affecting the airflow. So, the airport station doesn't record accurately for the entire area.If you want the weather north, east or south of Buffalo, forget the airport NOAA station and go right to NOAA and put in the zip code of the town. it is a lot more valid. For me, I live in Alden and lancaster and I check Town Line Station (it is a hamlet just south of us) for the most accurate weather.

It was glorious and sunny and 15 degrees here today.

[jero]

Thanks for posting this. I have been thinking about moving up near Albany, and I was wondering what the climate is like relative to other parts of the state.

It's interesting how Albany is much more cold and sunny than the others, while Buffalo has the most snow and wind.

[I'minformed2]

It got up to 62 here in Rochester today! Pretty crazy for January, but not unheard of. Wow its late I need to go to bed.

[Timtheman]

I just want to add my thanks for this fine bit of research. Thank you for posting.

The light issue intrigues me. How do elevation and mountains play into this?

[BuffaloTransplant]

65 degrees in my yard today. No snow -- it all melted. We broke the record 2 days in a row. (When someone says it is global warming, it should be pointed out the records were over 75 years old! )