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Old 12-13-2015, 07:07 AM
 
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Interesting piece in the NY Daily News (yeah I know but it came up on Google News's "NY" section) about the slow death of the suburbs of New Jersey, Westchester and Long Island.


Cannot say I agree with the entire article but some of it does ring true. Know more than a handful of family members and friends who bailed out of not just NYC but NJ and LI for the South.


Kotkin and Cox: Our anemic suburbs - NY Daily News
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Old 12-13-2015, 07:41 AM
 
Location: Where my bills arrive
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New York has always been a prime piece of real estate with little leeway either way, I agree with most of what is written. The statements on the stagnation of the suburbs ring pretty true the last time we went home the towns main shopping center was stuck in the late 70's, others look worse. Down south most shopping centers get updated every few years to stay current because with new construction there is always fresh competition. At some point housing will have to adjust to what the market can bear and the overprices homes on LI from decades gone by will be adjusted to a more marketable level. For those that would comment that there is new construction save it, most projects are infill or reworking of an existing building. As often posted on this board business and industry is not heading to the island.
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Old 12-13-2015, 07:43 AM
 
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Yeah, some of the article seems suspect and didn't touch on the fact that many have just moved further out to NE PA, the mid Hudson Valley/Catskills, CT or Central NJ.

It is interesting that he didn't mention the diverse suburbs throughout the metro area and including Lakeview on Long Island, a 81% Black community in Nassau County with a median household income of $103,000(09-13 census info) and happens to be NYS's Blackest CDP/municipality. There are threads that contradict the stereotype that Kotkin mentioned in regards to a lack of diversity in terms of area suburbs.

Also, this article contradicts the statement that African Americans automatically have more opportunity when moving to particular Southern metros: http://mobile.nytimes.com/2013/07/22...&_r=1&referer=

This also doesn't get into the reality of these Southern areas being able to annex land/unincorporated areas into their city limits for development or to show an increase in population.

Kotkin also is very Sun Belt centric in regards to his Forbes articles, if one is privy to any of them.
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Old 12-13-2015, 08:30 AM
 
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You actually have a number of Black communities in NYC's suburbs. Some of them are quite bad, and some of them are middle class.

Not everyone Black who leaves the 5 boroughs moves to the South.

I also feel the writer doesn't know NYC. Not everyone who is interested in starting a family moves to the suburbs. That was never the case.

There are single detached homes in Brooklyn, Queens, the Bronx, and Staten Island. Also the city expanded substantially the number of co-ops and condos for sale. Plus some people buy brownstones and townhouses.

What the article does not acknowledge is NYC's suburbs are becoming increasingly non white, immigrant, and poor. Professionals tend to prefer to live close to their work. Dealing with long commutes these days is for poor people.

Lastly Blacks priced out of NYC do not necessarily have the golden life in the South. You also can't just move from NYC and expect gold to fall from the sky on you in the South. The South is also a huge region and while there are some nice cities, there are also a number of ghost towns and impoverished rural areas.
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Old 12-13-2015, 02:01 PM
 
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To put it simply the NYC suburbs have become a bank for overseas investors to park their money in. It's a nET good but does not address housing concerns of people with families.
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Old 12-13-2015, 09:59 PM
 
Location: Deep in the Woods
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This article seems spot-on from what I've observed and experienced first-hand. Not one person I know is seeking to move to Long Island or suburban areas in NJ. West of 287, NJ is dead. NE PA is dead as a doornail; people can't even sell their homes for peanuts there. I know, I'm there once a week. East of 287 is looking more and more like a third-world hellhole. The only part of NJ that is growing naturally is Ocean County. By naturally I mean, people want to live there. Unlike most of NJ where 5 middle-class families move out, and 5 immigrant families move in. Hence the appearance of stability but anyone whos been here can see that Christie has done nothing here but fill in a few potholes and allow online casinos in his 8 years.

$80 billion deficit to be coming down the pike as well, with an 8 million population to pay for it. All to fund bloated pensions so no one in NJ will see any benefit from it (most of the retirees already moved to cheaper states anyway). Who's gonna stick around for that? Not me...

Taxes of $12k on a $300k house? Its the same on Long Island and Westchester. What's the point in buying anything?

Last edited by VintageSunlight; 12-13-2015 at 10:21 PM..
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Old 12-13-2015, 11:11 PM
 
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Yet the article does not explain WHY prices have escalated in suburbs like Great Neck, Manhasset, Old Westbury, Short Hills, Mamaroneck, Larchmont, Hastings, Cresskill, Teeneck, etc. etc. Municipal governments continue to dole out services like garbage collection, firefighting, police and yes, schools. Interesting the author mentioned Great Neck as a place that young NYers no longer want to move to, but did not account for the high demand for homes in the area in spite of it. What's not understood here is that suburbs are bifurcating. Indeed some areas are becoming dumping grounds for the poor. But others have become bank accounts for overseas and some domestic investors looking to both park their money and give their dependents a kind of lifestyle not available in their home areas. It does not serve the purpose of those commuting for jobs, but you'll see amenities won't go away. NY Times recently published an article about the proliferation of suburban homes as investment vehicles (watch the video):

Chinese Cash Floods U.S. Real Estate Market
By DIONNE SEARCEY and KEITH BRADSHER
November 28, 2015
New York Times
(website) http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/29/bu...te-market.html

So whether its Chinese in Piscataway, Koreans in Great Neck, or Indians in Windsor, money still keeps pouring into the NYC burbs. Just not the way most people would expect.
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Old 12-14-2015, 12:04 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VintageSunlight View Post
East of 287 is looking more and more like a third-world hellhole.
How so? I can't think of a single significant area within it that seems to be declining. Even long-term disasters like Newark have more signs of life than they have in decades.
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Old 12-14-2015, 08:10 AM
 
59,342 posts, read 84,129,768 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Forest_Hills_Daddy View Post
Yet the article does not explain WHY prices have escalated in suburbs like Great Neck, Manhasset, Old Westbury, Short Hills, Mamaroneck, Larchmont, Hastings, Cresskill, Teeneck, etc. etc. Municipal governments continue to dole out services like garbage collection, firefighting, police and yes, schools. Interesting the author mentioned Great Neck as a place that young NYers no longer want to move to, but did not account for the high demand for homes in the area in spite of it. What's not understood here is that suburbs are bifurcating. Indeed some areas are becoming dumping grounds for the poor. But others have become bank accounts for overseas and some domestic investors looking to both park their money and give their dependents a kind of lifestyle not available in their home areas. It does not serve the purpose of those commuting for jobs, but you'll see amenities won't go away. NY Times recently published an article about the proliferation of suburban homes as investment vehicles (watch the video):

Chinese Cash Floods U.S. Real Estate Market
By DIONNE SEARCEY and KEITH BRADSHER
November 28, 2015
New York Times
(website) http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/29/bu...te-market.html

So whether its Chinese in Piscataway, Koreans in Great Neck, or Indians in Windsor, money still keeps pouring into the NYC burbs. Just not the way most people would expect.
I've had the sense that a lot of people on this forum are said people, given the sense I get from some of the threads/posts.


It isn't just happening down there, as I know that some of this occurs in select areas within the cities or suburbs in Upstate NY as well. It isn't uncommon for people to literally buy homes near the college their son or daughter is attending up here so they can stay in them and in turn, make a profit either to sell or to rent it out to other students.
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Old 12-14-2015, 08:57 AM
 
Location: Deep in the Woods
2,610 posts, read 2,784,037 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by millerm277 View Post
How so? I can't think of a single significant area within it that seems to be declining. Even long-term disasters like Newark have more signs of life than they have in decades.
Jersey City, away from the waterfront, is a dump.

https://goo.gl/maps/P2Y3exE3BDK2

Same for Irvington, Newark, Paterson, Passaic, New Brunswick, Plainfield, East Orange, Orange, etc.

Good luck speaking English in Union City, Cliffside Park, Fort Lee, Palisades Park, or North Bergen.

The Meadowlands, and the towns that surround it, are known toxic waste dumps with more Superfund sites than many states 4x the size of NJ. The Passaic River is where much of the Agent Orange was dumped years ago. The photo attached is a tributary of the Passaic in Kearny- no it is not enhanced in anyway, the anti-freeze color is real. Berry's Creek in Lyndhurst is one of the most polluted waterways in NJ- it has mercury levels that make the water in Onondaga Lake look like a bottle of Fiji.

Linden / Elizabeth area has huge oil refineries, its where NJ gets its characteristic smell and is a known cancer cluster.

Further west, towns are ok but almost untouchable by the vast majority of people of average means.
Attached Thumbnails
Stick A Fork In It - It's Done; NYC Suburbs-passaic_river_sampling_event_042815.jpg  
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