Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
I'll add another kink to the mix of why the NYC metro is such a difficult place to live. Its one of my biggest gripes with the area and I believe a major disadvantage over other cities.
When in a job hunting situation, a job listed in the NYC metro can be anywhere from Riverhead to Trenton, or Beacon to Atlantic City. Its very, very hard to live "central" to anywhere, unless you live in Brooklyn or Manhattan. Even then, I can't tell you how many people I know who live in Brooklyn and commute to far flung suburbs because their job is specialized and only there or extremely limited in other parts of the metro. I've known people who have bought houses in areas that they thought were central, or in areas where they thought their job was secure, only to find that their next job is 60 miles away in the other direction. So, they have to move or commute a horrible commute.
The sheer size of the NYC metro limits you to only search for a job in your part of the suburbs, or only in NYC. NYC metro has so many "edge" cities.
Now, take your pick of any larger metro areas in the US: Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Buffalo, Indianapolis, Denver, Charlotte, etc. You can live almost anywhere in the metro and still have a reasonable commute to anywhere else in the metro when looking for a job. That means stability when you buy a house, a less stressful job hunt, etc. In many cases, in the larger metros, most of the jobs are downtown or near downtown anyway. I know in my job hunts in other metros, few jobs are in the far flung suburbs, but in the NYC metro, jobs can be anywhere over a 300 square mile swath of land.
I've considered buying a house here, and then I think: where? What job is going to be so stable to plunk $300k on a house, only to lose it later if the next job is perfect for me, still in NY metro, but 75 miles away. I think this is a huge disadvantage of the NYC suburbs.
And also remember the expensive tolls.
If you want to to get to the Jersey side from Long Island then you'd have to pay TWO expensive tolls or severely go out of my way and just pay one. The Hudson River tolls are $15/$16 and the other tolls are $8!! (EZ-Pass takes off a couple dollars)
NO OTHER PART OF THE COUNTRY IS LIKE THIS!! Not even the Bay Area which is also expensive and set up in a way somewhat similar to NYC.
Here's the new suburban dynamic. Dad is a middle manager in a chaebol/KAL pilot/Taiwanese factory owner in Guangdong. Or runs an import export busuness between india and canada. Mom lives with middle and high school kids in Lake Success, Great Neck, Edgemont, west windsor etc etc. Hence commuting is not an issue. So those who say the suburbs are in decline - it's not gonna happen. Else home prices would not have tripled. What you really mean is that that many ordinary new yorkers cannot handle life in the suburbs.
Here's the new suburban dynamic. Dad is a middle manager in a chaebol/KAL pilot/Taiwanese factory owner in Guangdong. Or runs an import export busuness between india and canada. Mom lives with middle and high school kids in Lake Success, Great Neck, Edgemont, west windsor etc etc. Hence commuting is not an issue. So those who say the suburbs are in decline - it's not gonna happen. Else home prices would not have tripled. What you really mean is that that many ordinary new yorkers cannot handle life in the suburbs.
Wait, are you saying that people will be able to afford a place like Lake Success on only one middle-management salary? You couldn't even do Levittown or Elmont on that.
If you want to to get to the Jersey side from Long Island then you'd have to pay TWO expensive tolls or severely go out of my way and just pay one. The Hudson River tolls are $15/$16 and the other tolls are $8!! (EZ-Pass takes off a couple dollars)
NO OTHER PART OF THE COUNTRY IS LIKE THIS!! Not even the Bay Area which is also expensive and set up in a way somewhat similar to NYC.
Why would you even want to drive the distance?
Any really big city is like this.
So is Los Angeles. You cannot realistically do a job search over the entire area. You have to limit yourself to areas you can reasonably commute to.
Years ago when the LIRR was cheaper I was willing to work in LI. Now with the high cost of the tickets I am only willing to work in NYC, and generally not the far reaches of the city. It works just fine, I can find my share of jobs primarily in Manhattan, but also certain things in Queens or Brooklyn. I'm not interested in Staten Island or the Bronx.
If you're going to live in an area you need to make sure it has the kinds of jobs in a reasonable commuting distance that you can do.
Wait, are you saying that people will be able to afford a place like Lake Success on only one middle-management salary? You couldn't even do Levittown or Elmont on that.
I'm saying many overseas buyers can afford lake success, Great neck etc. Look - prices have gone up, not down. It's good for these suburbs and means they won't decline. Ordinary locals with one salary cannot afford homes there but that's irrelevant to the thead of course.
So is Los Angeles. You cannot realistically do a job search over the entire area. You have to limit yourself to areas you can reasonably commute to.
Years ago when the LIRR was cheaper I was willing to work in LI. Now with the high cost of the tickets I am only willing to work in NYC, and generally not the far reaches of the city. It works just fine, I can find my share of jobs primarily in Manhattan, but also certain things in Queens or Brooklyn. I'm not interested in Staten Island or the Bronx.
If you're going to live in an area you need to make sure it has the kinds of jobs in a reasonable commuting distance that you can do.
Don't forget that the New Tappan Zee bridge will have a toll price almost equivalent to that of the George Washington Bridge. Then if u ever want to cross a river your pockets will get picked.
You have some very good points why most of LI will continue to sink. And why suburbs like Jersey City that are just a stop or two away on the Path train from NYC or a short bus ride to either Port Authority of GWB terminal are doing so much better than LI.
LI doesn't have much in the way of major employers either. The only areas doing well are areas that have a LIRR station that is a decent commute to Manhattan. Out of towners with money who come to NYC to study are going to go to Columbia or NYU. Even schools like St. Johns's and Fordham due to their location will attract more students than schools in LI that are too far away from anything fun. And with the exception of Stony Brook, CUNY is a better deal and has a better reputation than the overpriced private schools on LI.
I think the other purpose LI will serve in the South Shore has beautiful beach areas. I think they will remain nice. Even in NYC there's a big move towards investing in Coney Island and the Rockaways, NYC's version of the South Shore. But I agree with you in general the ISLAND is SCREWED.
LI was developed as a bedroom community for NYC and that is what killed people. Ultimately for those that choose to or have to work in NYC many will prefer to live closer. The White population of metro NYC has INCREASED in the city proper and DECREASED in the suburbs as those changes you mention take place (more Section 8 people moving out in the island, and more immigrants).
Ummm: NYC's white population declined between 2000 and 2010. People shouldn't care wither their neighbors are purple, just that they're good people.
So is Los Angeles. You cannot realistically do a job search over the entire area. You have to limit yourself to areas you can reasonably commute to.
Years ago when the LIRR was cheaper I was willing to work in LI. Now with the high cost of the tickets I am only willing to work in NYC, and generally not the far reaches of the city. It works just fine, I can find my share of jobs primarily in Manhattan, but also certain things in Queens or Brooklyn. I'm not interested in Staten Island or the Bronx.
If you're going to live in an area you need to make sure it has the kinds of jobs in a reasonable commuting distance that you can do.
This could be why the US Census now has Census metro divisions for major metros. This may mean that a portion of the major metro has multiple employment centers that people commute to within that metro. For those that do not know what I'm referring, this should help: US2010 (at the bottom)
Most of the upscale areas of the NYC suburbs will always stay desirable. They have the good school districts, walkable downtowns, nice houses and oftentimes LIRR stops to keep people coming in. But on LI, pretty much anything that's not Manhasset, RVC, Garden City, Great Neck, Babylon Village, Huntington Village or any of the quiet old money-type north shore towns will become a dump as the decades go by. Maybe some other areas with LIRR stops and revitalized downtowns may stay decent (Lynbrook, Mineola, Valley Stream, Amityville Village, SE Nassau closer to the train stops but almost everything else is toast!
And don't even get me started with the global warming crisis that will severely increase flooding and the risk of hurricanes that will further reduce property values, further bring up flood insurance rates in the once desirable waterfront areas (which have been INSANE since Sandy); the glory days of 'South of Montauk Hwy' are over.
Summary of Post: GTFO while you can!! The Titanic is sinking!! Don't settle for mediocrity!
Long Island is messed up. Not all middle class areas got full of illegals, but some went the other way, most of the south shore towns like Merrick & Massapequa and everything in between used to be more middle class, but have become more expensive as the Babylon Branch has the best service, which is very appealing to yuppies. Most frequent trains and least crowding, most of the time in rush hour there is only 10 minutes or less between trains. Plus a good amount of express trains that make only a few stops and usually bypass Jamaica
The illegals, ex cons, and sex offenders are dumped in the middle of the island, places like Westbury, Hicksville, East Meadow have been in decline for some years now. At least the first 2 have a train station going for it, and Westbury has a walkable downtown, but the train service isn't frequent nor are there many express trains plus its packed, the schools suck, and generally it is not viewed as a desirable place to live. Always people up to no good just hanging around, especially in the warmer months. The train ride itself is pretty depressing through Nassau on the "Main Line", nothing but decrepid buildings covered with graffiti are the view out the window on the train, the Babylon Line is much more modern and there's trees and backyards as the view instead as you sail above everything with no grade crossings.
In NW Nassau you got Great Neck,etc which also have good train service. Of course no trains, places like Uniondale & Roosevelt will continue to sink further.
Long Island is basically becoming MORE segregated than ever. The nicer towns along the Babylon Branch are almost all white and have an ever rising income (along with rents, home prices), while the middle of the island areas are seeing aging white middle class leaving, replaced by renters, many of whom are illegal aliens put into single family homes by slumlords.
The trend is obvious, some of the worst neighborhoods on Long Island are in the middle, Hempstead, Uniondale, Wyandanch, Brentwood,etc. Basically LI is looking like a white bread sandwich.
If you're stuck in the middle, you are miserable and probably plan to move out. If you are doing very well & can afford the nicer areas on the north & south shores, than Long Island is probably great for you.
Of course Global Warming is the wildcard, especially for the South Shore, storms will no doubt result in the loss of homes and infrastructure there. Yet the wealthier folks keep moving there. Funny you mention Babylon Village, it used to be more middle class years ago but is more & more full of yuppies.
The suburbs will not die, they will just change. But the middle class dream of suburbia, at least on Long Island, is dead. You have to be rich to afford to live in a decent town with good train service, otherwise you'll be stuck in the middle with mediocre or no trains, increasing crime, and more & more of a ghetto element moving in. So anyone who isn't making well over 6 figures is probably making plans to or has already moved off Long Island.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Tolls
