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Old 04-13-2007, 04:37 PM
 
1,303 posts, read 2,858,427 times
Reputation: 502
Default When is the Real Estate "plunge" happening?

I saw this in jest and part seriousness. Just read a post stating that with 4 dollar gas prices the real estate market is going to plunge soon. Honestly...any thoughts on that? I am looking to buy in nov/dec..or sooner if a good "plungy" deal came my way.

Bergen or rockland is my first choice---Monroe area of orange...far second.......but of course like everyone else we are priced out rockland.

I honestly dont see a plunge happening..sure there are alot of houses on the market but they are by no means a "deal"..in fact most of the houses were bought in the prime and people are still trying to sell it at a premium.

To me a plunge would be seeing prices between 2000-2002....I dont think its going to happen....


But I still remember friends buying in wycoff/allendale (bergen county) (sp?) a 3 bedroom lovely split for 400k They say its valued at 800k and their taxes are almost 18k.

Now come on folks....I highly doubt there home is going "plunge" 400 grand in the next year or two---gas prices or not.

Any thoughts or comments...would appreciate hearing both sides of the fence (people who are selling or buying or general homeowners themselves)..

Is the market going to tank? I have also posted the discussion on the NJ thread..
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Old 04-13-2007, 05:25 PM
 
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Well, I am in Orange in Scotchtown and my home sold in two weeks. Had 14 showings the first week. One offer that was 30k under asking (needless to say, the buyers werent to serious) and then my other buyer who paid 4500 from asking price. Orange is still hot for NYC buyers, Monroe is expensive which is why they come up this far and still commute. There is a train station nearby. Prices have gone down which is why I am getting out while I can but I dont think that it will pludge.
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Old 04-13-2007, 06:45 PM
 
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Where are you going to then...looks like you made out and priced your home aggressively to sell. Were you looking to turn a quick profit or was their another motivation in selling? Just curious why people want to "Get out" of the market now....the only reason I can think of is that they bought at a premium and are afraid of seeing their profit margin decrease?

We purchased our starter in 1998...when you could buy for 150 in dutchess..and now the assessment is almost 500k. I would never pay that..but that was 10 years ago..and I dont even think the market will plunge that much, sure I might not make that much of a profit had a I sold in 2004, but I still will profit.

Wonder if that is the thought process. I guess you either pay 4 bucks in gas, or you pay more for housing.
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Old 04-14-2007, 08:39 AM
 
Location: between here and there
1,031 posts, read 1,815,780 times
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I would call it more of an equalization of values than a plunge..what has happened to real estate prices in the last 5 years was been unpredented and it had to burst. As for house values, they will drop for a while and it will be a buyers markwt. But with the ever-rising price of energy affecting everything we touch in life, house prices will begin to rise again. How quick? It's a guess for anyone....but houses are and will continue to be your best investment
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Old 04-14-2007, 09:43 AM
 
289 posts, read 1,039,237 times
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Just tired of NY..going to SC were my taxes will only be 1500/yr on a home 23 yrs. newer than I have now. I didnt make that much profit as we refied twice which hurt us but financially we had no choice.
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Old 04-14-2007, 11:08 AM
 
Location: between here and there
1,031 posts, read 1,815,780 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by settlepa View Post
Just tired of NY..going to SC were my taxes will only be 1500/yr on a home 23 yrs. newer than I have now. I didnt make that much profit as we refied twice which hurt us but financially we had no choice.
We're looking at Va. in 4 years ourselves...house paid for and socking away the retirement funds then it's "Cya NY!!!!!!!!!"

Spitzer made a speech this week about NYers voting with their feet....with the baby boomers accounting for the largest segment of the population, that is a exodus he won't be able to stop: we're older, tired of paying the highest "everything" in the country and just plain sick of the winters....NY may be a ghost state within a few decades......
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Old 04-14-2007, 12:54 PM
 
Location: NY
408 posts, read 1,265,344 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by smalltownusa View Post
....NY may be a ghost state within a few decades......
It is just as likely that upstate NY will see a population boom within a few decades as the effects of global climate change really kick in with the intensification of storms and rising sea levels effecting coastal areas and prolonged and increasingly severe droughts in the south and the west. The net effect of global climate change is of course going to be a negative, but unless the gulf stream pumps suddenly shut down (which is a possibility), upstate NY may fare quite well with milder winters and an increased growing season, though probably more rain.
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Old 04-15-2007, 02:23 AM
 
Location: Metropolis
1,114 posts, read 2,262,653 times
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All those places Ny'ers are escaping to will become
the next crowded, expensive and in a way much worse
than the North East, massive sprawl. Then your children
will be looking at a place to escape to from crowded the congested
Carolinas and Tennessee. At least NY has immigrants and Hipsters
flocking there for unparrelled culture and excitement. But who will
replace those yougsters fleeing Charlotte in the next generation, who will
be headed to Fayetteville and Bozeman. New York will still be attracting even
at that time while sprawled out Charlotte will be a suburban wasteland.
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Old 04-15-2007, 07:59 AM
 
928 posts, read 2,381,914 times
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I don't see this 'Real Estate Plunge' happening anywhere in the NYC metro area or even the suburbs.

Not only have home prices surged, but rents have gone along for the ride.. Someone making the alledged or supposed median household income for a family of 1 or 2 in NYC can't qualify for (let alone afford) probably 80% or more of the housing of the market today (again rent or buy).

Not everyone makes $100,000 a year or that $200,000 a year salary that the NY Times & NY Magazine think is standard for a single person to make.

An average starter home costs around $500,000 - $700,000 with taxes between $8,000 - $12,000 a year. And those are in barely adequate parts of NJ or Long Island with 90 minute + commutes to midtown Manhattan.

Yes NYC is a wonderful place these days IF you are fantastically rich and can afford to spend $50,000 a year (either in rent or mortgage). Most of these hipsters leave when their trust fuind runs out or their daddy can't pay for their $4,000 a month condo in Manhattan.
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Old 04-15-2007, 09:31 AM
 
Location: Bronx, NY
2,806 posts, read 11,399,616 times
Reputation: 972
Wait wait wait.... when did hipsters and immigrants become a good thing?

Quote:
Originally Posted by UrbanQuest View Post
All those places Ny'ers are escaping to will become
the next crowded, expensive and in a way much worse
than the North East, massive sprawl. Then your children
will be looking at a place to escape to from crowded the congested
Carolinas and Tennessee. At least NY has immigrants and Hipsters
flocking there for unparrelled culture and excitement. But who will
replace those yougsters fleeing Charlotte in the next generation, who will
be headed to Fayetteville and Bozeman. New York will still be attracting even
at that time while sprawled out Charlotte will be a suburban wasteland.
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