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Old 02-22-2011, 03:48 PM
 
1,211 posts, read 2,300,316 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rnc2mbfl View Post
Of this list, Guilford is the only one projected to reach 600K through 2030. Even then, it is projected that it won't get to that threshold until 2026.
SAS Output

Through 2030, the state appears to be placing all its bets on Wake (1.47 Million) and Mecklenburg (1.21 Million).
That list is either outdated or poorly put together. The Wake and Meck areas are around 950k presently, and average over 25k per year. Both have grown by around 300k in the past decade alone.
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Old 02-22-2011, 04:36 PM
 
Location: Charlotte, NC
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I agree. I think they will surpass 1 million by 2012-2013 and by 2030 they should be much further than those numbers assuming that Charlotte and Raleigh are able to increase their population density rather than sprawling similar to Atlanta.
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Old 02-22-2011, 05:14 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by metro.m View Post
That list is either outdated or poorly put together. The Wake and Meck areas are around 950k presently, and average over 25k per year. Both have grown by around 300k in the past decade alone.
I was thinking the same. I think by 2030 both Wake and Meck should be nearer to 1.7million. I think by that time Charlotte should top 1 million in the city limits.
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Old 02-22-2011, 05:18 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ZeusAV View Post
I agree. I think they will surpass 1 million by 2012-2013 and by 2030 they should be much further than those numbers assuming that Charlotte and Raleigh are able to increase their population density rather than sprawling similar to Atlanta.
Both Wake and Meck (more specifically Charlotte and Raleigh) have several measures to densify development and grow smarter. Wake will probably sprawl more because it has more land to do so, and then there will be an emphasis on density. In Meck, there is more of an emphasis on density, but still more land that can be developed.
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Old 02-22-2011, 06:44 PM
 
Location: The place where the road & the sky collide
21,836 posts, read 27,084,640 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rnc2mbfl View Post
Of this list, Guilford is the only one projected to reach 600K through 2030. Even then, it is projected that it won't get to that threshold until 2026.
SAS Output

Through 2030, the state appears to be placing all its bets on Wake (1.47 Million) and Mecklenburg (1.21 Million).
That can not possibly be right. Look at their figures for Gaston & Cleveland. Then look at the current figures for the same counties here. Charlotte USA - Charlotte Region - Charlotte USA, Fortune 500, Business, NC, SC | Charlotte Regional Partnership

Unless they plan to post armed guards on those 2 counties to keep people out, they are lowballing their figures severely.
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Old 02-22-2011, 09:08 PM
 
Location: South Beach and DT Raleigh
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Quote:
Originally Posted by adavi215 View Post
Both Wake and Meck (more specifically Charlotte and Raleigh) have several measures to densify development and grow smarter. Wake will probably sprawl more because it has more land to do so, and then there will be an emphasis on density. In Meck, there is more of an emphasis on density, but still more land that can be developed.
Actually, Raleigh and Cary are already both more densely populated than Charlotte. But that's another topic.

The advantage that both Charlotte and Raleigh have is that their growth parallels a heightened awareness of many who are returning to more urban environments. Likewise, I suspect that both cities and counties will have to take a hard look at how much future suburban development that their governments are willing to socially subsidize. See the 3rd item in this attached story: Five myths about the suburbs
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Old 02-22-2011, 09:52 PM
 
Location: From WNC, now in Raleigh
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I've never thought much of population estimates.

For example, in 1996, NCDOT completed a comprehensive transportation plan for tiny, rural Polk County. The 1990 Census was 14,416 people, and they estimated somewhere along the lines of 16,000-17,000 people in the year 2020. Well, Polk hit 18,324 in the 2000 Census.

So, I can't wait to see the 2010 data too.
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Old 02-22-2011, 10:59 PM
 
Location: South Beach and DT Raleigh
11,810 posts, read 18,699,782 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cowboy_wilhelm View Post
I've never thought much of population estimates.

For example, in 1996, NCDOT completed a comprehensive transportation plan for tiny, rural Polk County. The 1990 Census was 14,416 people, and they estimated somewhere along the lines of 16,000-17,000 people in the year 2020. Well, Polk hit 18,324 in the 2000 Census.

So, I can't wait to see the 2010 data too.
That's pretty on par with other counties. The State of NC is typically conservative in their projected numbers.

I wonder if the counties that the state is projecting to lose population will actually grow...slightly?
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Old 02-23-2011, 07:48 AM
 
6,270 posts, read 9,982,098 times
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The whole NC projections debate is a bit moot for Charlotte being that our metro's second largest county is in South Carolina.
Quote:
Originally Posted by rnc2mbfl View Post
Actually, Raleigh and Cary are already both more densely populated than Charlotte. But that's another topic.
This is a bit off topic, but since you brought it up I'd like to clear up your ambiguous statement.

Charlotte is a city of roughly 725,000 with 300 sq/mi of land (2,417 per sq/mi density). Raleigh/Cary combined would make a city of 525,000 with 185 sq/mi of land (2,838 per sq/mi density). Basically on paper Raleigh/Cary is more densely populated, but there is more to the story.

Charlotte often annexes new land long before it is ever developed. This is how the city controls taxation and future suburban growth. Raleigh/Cary also takes in new land, but not nearly as much as Charlotte. As a result, there are many areas within Charlotte's city limits that are extremely rural (think northwest Charlotte and parts of the University area). With that said, Charlotte could easily lose 115 sq/mi of "fat" and still be a city of nearly 600,000 (this can be found by simply studying each zip code in Charlotte). Some zips in Charlotte have 3,300 to 5,000 people per sq/mi while many zips on Charlotte's west side barely crack 1,000 people per sq/mi. The bottom line is that vast stretches of undeveloped land is what drags down Charlotte's "on paper" density.

Kansas City for example is a very urban city, yet it is less dense than Charlotte on paper (only 1,538 people per sq/mi on paper). Now, how pathetic would it be for a Charlottean to brag about their city being more dense than this city:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...9/92/Kcsky.jpg

The bottom line is that KC is a more urban (more "real" city) than Charlotte no matter what the on paper density says. The same can be said for Raleigh/Cary vs Charlotte. On paper density means nothing. Pictures and reality means everything.

All sizes | Charlotte - Southend | Flickr - Photo Sharing! (http://www.flickr.com/photos/bz3rk/3246756910/sizes/o/in/photostream/ - broken link)
All sizes | Plaza-Midwood, Charlotte | Flickr - Photo Sharing! (http://www.flickr.com/photos/bz3rk/3629135924/sizes/o/in/photostream/ - broken link)
All sizes | Charlotte skyline from The Vue condos | Flickr - Photo Sharing! (http://www.flickr.com/photos/bz3rk/5448210502/sizes/l/in/set-72157625930233949/ - broken link)
All sizes | Aerial of Charlotte Skyline | Flickr - Photo Sharing! (http://www.flickr.com/photos/49394874@N08/5123684063/sizes/l/in/photostream/ - broken link)

With a little bit better transit planning, better land use, and creative developers; Raleigh/Cary may one day be as dense as Charlotte where it counts. As for now, Raleigh/Cary is not.

All sizes | Downtown from Dix Hill | Flickr - Photo Sharing! (http://www.flickr.com/photos/abbyladybug/2804328666/sizes/l/in/photostream/ - broken link)
All sizes | Untitled | Flickr - Photo Sharing! (http://www.flickr.com/photos/blogdog/2471488409/sizes/l/in/photostream/ - broken link)
All sizes | Untitled | Flickr - Photo Sharing! (http://www.flickr.com/photos/17198616@N03/2591458701/sizes/l/in/photostream/ - broken link)

Last edited by urbancharlotte; 02-23-2011 at 08:28 AM..
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Old 02-27-2011, 10:02 AM
 
Location: From WNC, now in Raleigh
505 posts, read 2,272,611 times
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According to the Census website, North Carolina's county data will be released "next." I'm assuming this week. For anyone not keeping track, county data is being released on a rolling basis.

2010 Census Redistricting Data Release by State
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