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Old 02-19-2015, 07:55 PM
 
Location: Southport
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JayJayCB View Post
I feel like people believe this whole state is solid blue, which isn't the case. It all comes down to a division between urban (more so purple or blue) and rural (more so red).
Yes, NC hasn't been solidly blue in many decades. And to slightly change your point, while the urban areas are pretty blue, its not just the rural areas that are red, its also the suburban areas surrounding the urban areas. For example, in 2012 Romney carried every county surrounding Mecklenburg, and every county surrounding Forsyth and Guilford. These fast growing, suburban counties are getting more conservative and republican.

BA...look, more data!
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Old 02-19-2015, 08:59 PM
 
2,825 posts, read 3,246,190 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by carolinadawg2 View Post
Yes, NC hasn't been solidly blue in many decades. And to slightly change your point, while the urban areas are pretty blue, its not just the rural areas that are red, its also the suburban areas surrounding the urban areas. For example, in 2012 Romney carried every county surrounding Mecklenburg, and every county surrounding Forsyth and Guilford. These fast growing, suburban counties are getting more conservative and republican.

BA...look, more data!
Very true. The Charlotte metro and the Triad are actually very conservative once you get out of the city and head into the suburbs/outlying rural areas. The Triangle, possibly to a lesser extent. The two most conservative counties in NC (Randolph, Yadkin) are both in the Triad, and many areas outside of Charlotte are both extremely conservative and Southern Baptist Bible Belt-ish (Shelby, Lincolnton, Gastonia, Salisbury, etc.). Durham and Orange counties are pretty blue, no doubt about it. However, others like Wake, Guilford, Forsyth, and Mecklenburg are probably all purple in the long run. I've often heard people in South Carolina believe we're soooooo liberal, which is a little funny.
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Old 02-20-2015, 04:08 AM
 
3,454 posts, read 3,135,159 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by carolinadawg2 View Post
Yes, NC hasn't been solidly blue in many decades. And to slightly change your point, while the urban areas are pretty blue, its not just the rural areas that are red, its also the suburban areas surrounding the urban areas. For example, in 2012 Romney carried every county surrounding Mecklenburg, and every county surrounding Forsyth and Guilford. These fast growing, suburban counties are getting more conservative and republican.

BA...look, more data!

Lol, you have no facts or data just anecdotes as usual. The state is decidedly more purple than in the past. You need to understand the history of the Democratic party in the south before understanding the dynamic shift in the political landscape that is happening today. It isn't Jessie-crats or the eastern block of moderate Dems who used to support Jim Hunt, etc that is changing the voting composition (that group of Dems would vote decidedly for national GOP candidates). It is the huge influx of independents in metro regions the will eventually shape not only the core metro counties but surrounding counties. Rural NC isn't changing all that much other than losing population to the fast urbanizing metros in the state.

The trends are very evident, it'll never be a solid red state again. NC is a battleground state for every seat aside from the gerrymandered congressional districts that don't reflect the way the state votes. The Gubnor, Senate, and Presidential elections will require a lot of investment to secure those seats for either side.

You act as if though Romney and Tillis won in a landslide. What you will hear is toned down rhetoric from hard-lined conservatives to secure those seats....Jessie Helms could practically say anything and win, those days are gone, the trend is there whether you acknowledge it or not C Puppy.
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Old 02-20-2015, 05:57 AM
 
29,738 posts, read 27,163,908 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by carolinadawg2 View Post
I'm not at all convinced "northeastern transplants" are uniformly or even mostly, liberal. Brunswick County is one of the fasted growing counties in NC, fueled largely by transplants from the northeast, and it is solidly republican, maybe even more so that 10 years ago. I think the meme of the liberal yankee is a myth, or at least the ones that move to NC aren't.
You have a point. Many Northern transplants, aside from college grads, are from the suburbs of major metro areas which lean right or are swing areas, and those who are Republicans (a sizable chunk) tend to be of the libertarian type: socially liberal or moderate and fiscally conservative and their voting patterns are based on their economic interests first and foremost. After all, one of the major reasons they moved south to begin with is lower taxes/COL in general and NC has relatively high taxes for a Southern state.
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Old 02-20-2015, 06:34 AM
 
Location: Southport
4,639 posts, read 4,782,587 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Aristotle View Post
Lol, you have no facts or data just anecdotes as usual. The state is decidedly more purple than in the past. You need to understand the history of the Democratic party in the south before understanding the dynamic shift in the political landscape that is happening today. It isn't Jessie-crats or the eastern block of moderate Dems who used to support Jim Hunt, etc that is changing the voting composition (that group of Dems would vote decidedly for national GOP candidates). It is the huge influx of independents in metro regions the will eventually shape not only the core metro counties but surrounding counties. Rural NC isn't changing all that much other than losing population to the fast urbanizing metros in the state.
So election results aren't facts? Hmm, thats an interesting twist on reality. I'm well aware of NC's political history, thanks, including its current history, which you obviously aren't, little a. NC has moved dramatically to the right, and unfortunately, I don't see that changing any time soon.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Aristotle View Post
You act as if though Romney and Tillis won in a landslide. What you will hear is toned down rhetoric from hard-lined conservatives to secure those seats....Jessie Helms could practically say anything and win, those days are gone, the trend is there whether you acknowledge it or not C Puppy.
And you act like Romney and Tillis lost. In fact, you strongly implied (and obviously thought) that Obama won NC in 2012, lol. What about McCrory? What about the GOP takeover of the GA prior to redistricting? Oh, look, more facts!
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Old 02-21-2015, 09:56 AM
 
3,454 posts, read 3,135,159 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by carolinadawg2 View Post
So election results aren't facts? Hmm, thats an interesting twist on reality. I'm well aware of NC's political history, thanks, including its current history, which you obviously aren't, little a. NC has moved dramatically to the right, and unfortunately, I don't see that changing any time soon.



And you act like Romney and Tillis lost. In fact, you strongly implied (and obviously thought) that Obama won NC in 2012, lol. What about McCrory? What about the GOP takeover of the GA prior to redistricting? Oh, look, more facts!
Do you think NC will vote Dem or GOP in the next presidential election? Hillary vs. Jeb...if the economy remains anything near this stable...I gotta go with Hillary winning NC.

Obama almost won the state in 2012...even after the Dem national party didn't invest a ton of money into the race...it's a toss up state now, A FACT (very similar to VA). Now, when the state Dems get their proverbial sh&t together, they'll recapture some of the post-Pope/Koch congressional seats...that might actually happen in 2016...don't say I told you so when it happens. Just depends on how the money is flowing, this state has truly become much more purplish than Red...A FACT...C-Pup.

If the pattern was different I would co-sign with you but Tillis barely beat Hagan which isn't a good sign for your supposedly shift-to-the right theory. Dems are notorious for poor showings in mid-term elections. And because of that I think McCrory will be a dog fight for gubner but he's moderated some of his positions so he'll probably repeat. That hard right rhetoric ain't gonna fly in NC anymore as the influx of independent and more moderate mindsets infiltrate the state.

Last edited by Big Aristotle; 02-21-2015 at 10:11 AM..
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Old 02-21-2015, 12:27 PM
 
Location: Southport
4,639 posts, read 4,782,587 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Aristotle View Post
Do you think NC will vote Dem or GOP in the next presidential election? Hillary vs. Jeb...if the economy remains anything near this stable...I gotta go with Hillary winning NC.

Obama almost won the state in 2012...even after the Dem national party didn't invest a ton of money into the race...it's a toss up state now, A FACT (very similar to VA). Now, when the state Dems get their proverbial sh&t together, they'll recapture some of the post-Pope/Koch congressional seats...that might actually happen in 2016...don't say I told you so when it happens. Just depends on how the money is flowing, this state has truly become much more purplish than Red...A FACT...C-Pup.

If the pattern was different I would co-sign with you but Tillis barely beat Hagan which isn't a good sign for your supposedly shift-to-the right theory. Dems are notorious for poor showings in mid-term elections. And because of that I think McCrory will be a dog fight for gubner but he's moderated some of his positions so he'll probably repeat. That hard right rhetoric ain't gonna fly in NC anymore as the influx of independent and more moderate mindsets infiltrate the state.
You have lots of predictions for the future, but an amazing disregard for the immediate past and present. I don't get too invested in predictions, but I will say this: Hilary Clinton will NEVER carry NC, unless the GOP completely bungles everything. I guess we'll have to wait and see what the future brings.

I'm genuinely flabbergasted that anyone cannot see the clear turn to the right NC has taken in the past 7 years or so (and thats the time frame I'm talking about, not the period of, say 1970 to 2000). I mean, its laid out there clear as day. Will it continue? I'm smart enough to know that I don't know. But I'll be surprised if it doesn't...very happy, but very surprised. Personally, I hope you're right (no pun intended, lol). I'd love to see NC throw off the shackles of the current Koch/Pope/Tillis/Berger crowd that driving this state down, but I just don't see that happening. I so hope I'm wrong!
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Old 03-05-2015, 09:42 AM
 
Location: Southport
4,639 posts, read 4,782,587 times
Reputation: 3413
Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Aristotle View Post
Do you think NC will vote Dem or GOP in the next presidential election? Hillary vs. Jeb...if the economy remains anything near this stable...I gotta go with Hillary winning NC.

Obama almost won the state in 2012...even after the Dem national party didn't invest a ton of money into the race...it's a toss up state now, A FACT (very similar to VA). Now, when the state Dems get their proverbial sh&t together, they'll recapture some of the post-Pope/Koch congressional seats...that might actually happen in 2016...don't say I told you so when it happens. Just depends on how the money is flowing, this state has truly become much more purplish than Red...A FACT...C-Pup.

If the pattern was different I would co-sign with you but Tillis barely beat Hagan which isn't a good sign for your supposedly shift-to-the right theory. Dems are notorious for poor showings in mid-term elections. And because of that I think McCrory will be a dog fight for gubner but he's moderated some of his positions so he'll probably repeat. That hard right rhetoric ain't gonna fly in NC anymore as the influx of independent and more moderate mindsets infiltrate the state.
I completely forgot about the Amendment One vote in 2012...more than 60% voted for it. Thats not purple...thats pure red. It carried 92 of 100 counties.
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Old 03-05-2015, 10:25 AM
 
29,738 posts, read 27,163,908 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by carolinadawg2 View Post
I completely forgot about the Amendment One vote in 2012...more than 60% voted for it. Thats not purple...thats pure red. It carried 92 of 100 counties.
More than 60% of how many eligible voters?

And that's not pure red; 85-90% would be pure red. Over 60% is a lighter shade of purple.
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Old 03-05-2015, 10:37 AM
 
Location: Southport
4,639 posts, read 4,782,587 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mutiny77 View Post
More than 60% of how many eligible voters?
Irrelevant. The discussion is about actual voters.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mutiny77 View Post
And that's not pure red; 85-90% would be pure red. Over 60% is a lighter shade of purple.
In an election, 60% is a landslide. Please link to any statewide election that garnered 90% of the vote.
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