Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Good lord. YOU are the one who brought up "prior referendums" in the first place!
Yes, and this is what I said in case you missed it:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mutiny77
60% isn't small potatoes by any stretch, but the gay marriage vote itself is moot because there are no prior referendums to compare it to, for one.
Again, you can't use the gay marriage referendum to argue that NC is getting more conservative (which is your overarching argument) when there have been no prior gay marriage referendums to compare it to. And if there were, it would more than likely show NC getting less conservative (at least on this issue) as gay marriage is becoming less and less of an issue as time goes on (unless you live in Alabama).
Again, you can't use the gay marriage referendum to argue that NC is getting more conservative (which is your overarching argument) when there have been no prior gay marriage referendums to compare it to.
That may be the most amazingly tortured "logic" I've encountered. Unbelievable.
That may be the most amazingly tortured "logic" I've encountered. Unbelievable.
Thanks for the laugh!
Not when it comes to that particular issue anyway (or social issues in general), and as I said, if there WERE any prior referendums, it would most likely show NC becoming LESS conservative on that issue as that has been the general trend over time; it's not the big issue that it once was in most parts of the country.
Not when it comes to that particular issue anyway (or social issues in general), and as I said, if there WERE any prior referendums, it would most likely show NC becoming LESS conservative on that issue as that has been the general trend over time; it's not the big issue that it once was in most parts of the country.
Amendment One is far from the only evidence of NC's move to the right.
And same gender marriage is apparently a big deal to 60% of the electorate, and is definitely a big deal to the conservative politicians the electorate has put in charge of state government.
Eh, NC's population isn't moving to the right but the state government did by quite a lot, and it's permanently entrenched in the short term due to gerrymandering, and it's affecting everything below that. If the state's political balance remains relatively equal and doesn't shift (or shifts to the right in response to it) then nothing will change this state of affairs. Not without intervention from the courts, as far as I can tell. Or a colossally bad year for the republicans, 1930s sort of bad. Both of those look unlikely.
Amendment One is far from the only evidence of NC's move to the right.
In the absence of prior referendums for the sake of comparison, you can't say that NC has moved to the right on that issue and I'd bet it's just the opposite in light of national polling data over the past several years.
Quote:
And same gender marriage is apparently a big deal to 60% of the electorate, and is definitely a big deal to the conservative politicians the electorate has put in charge of state government.
Not 60% of the entire electorate, only those who cared enough to turn out in May 2012 which was a relatively low number; apparently 65% of the electorate didn't hold strong feelings either way enough to come out and vote. Unconventional voting times like that always favor conservatives because old folks, who are more conservative, are a very reliable voting bloc at any time. And of course the conservative politicians consider it a big deal, along with silly stuff like proposing a state religion and other matters; they've just gone crazy after taking over the state legislature. But again, gay marriage is a moot point; it's legal in NC now so it was all for naught.
In the absence of prior referendums for the sake of comparison, you can't say that NC has moved to the right on that issue and I'd bet it's just the opposite in light of national polling data over the past several years.
I didn't say NC moved to the right on that issue, I offer it as evidence that NC has moved to the right overall. And that's certainly a valid extrapolation. Your insistence otherwise is frankly baffling.
You don't see a trend here:
2010: Republicans win control of the General Assembly.
2012: Republicans win Governor's race and Romney carries NC.
2014: Republicans retain control of General Assembly. Tillis (who had zero state-wide name recognition prior to 2010) ousts an incumbent Democratic US Senator. NC elects 10 out 13 Republican House of Representative members.
How anyone can look at that and not say NC is moving to the right is beyond me.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mutiny77
Not 60% of the entire electorate, only those who cared enough to turn out in May 2012...
Thank you Captain Obvious. Thats true of every election. It in no invalidates my point.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mutiny77
And of course the conservative politicians consider it a big deal...
Hmmm, I wonder who elected those conservative politicians. Oh thats right, a tiny slice of the state's voters, who in no way represent the actual tenor of the state's political leaning. Sure thing.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mutiny77
But again, gay marriage is a moot point; it's legal in NC now so it was all for naught.
You've posted that several times. It's completely irrelevant to the point I'm making.
I didn't say NC moved to the right on that issue, I offer it as evidence that NC has moved to the right overall. And that's certainly a valid extrapolation. Your insistence otherwise is frankly baffling.
My insistence is that the Amendment One results offer no proof of NC shifting either to the right or to the left because there has only been one such referendum in the state; it is but one snapshot in time. If there were prior referendums to compare it to, I wouldn't be surprised to see the state shift ever so slightly towards approval as based on national trends:
In other words, I could see a previous referendum, say around 2006, showing around 67-70% of the electorate against gay marriage with 27-30% in favor of it, compared to the May 2012 62%/38% results.
Quote:
You don't see a trend here:
2010: Republicans win control of the General Assembly.
2012: Republicans win Governor's race and Romney carries NC.
2014: Republicans retain control of General Assembly. Tillis (who had zero state-wide name recognition prior to 2010) ousts an incumbent Democratic US Senator. NC elects 10 out 13 Republican House of Representative members.
How anyone can look at that and not say NC is moving to the right is beyond me.
I do see a short-term trend here, but in the larger scheme of things I'm not sure if one could look at it and say definitively that NC is becoming more conservative, particularly in light of the role that state politics played when it came to Republicans gaining control of the state legislature to begin with. It's probably the case that NC is becoming a bit more libertarian than conservative.
Quote:
Thank you Captain Obvious. Thats true of every election. It in no invalidates my point.
It provides context; unusually scheduled elections like those always result in terribly low turnout and are typically designed to ensure a particular outcome because of it.
Quote:
Hmmm, I wonder who elected those conservative politicians. Oh thats right, a tiny slice of the state's voters, who in no way represent the actual tenor of the state's political leaning. Sure thing.
It's not as cut-and-dried as you're making it; it never is. Many Republicans in NC weren't happy with stuff like that coming out of Raleigh, but in their minds the GOP is the lesser of two evils right now.
Quote:
You've posted that several times. It's completely irrelevant to the point I'm making.
Let's just agree that it's a moot point and drop it.
I completely forgot about the Amendment One vote in 2012...more than 60% voted for it. Thats not purple...thats pure red. It carried 92 of 100 counties.
That was a Primary election with only Republicans facing serious opposition, over a very hot-button social issue that made it extremely easy for the churches to preach "Doom and Gloom" sermons for months leading to the election, register voters, and even bus them to the polls. It is not representative of the state overall.
Any time a social issue is on the ballot, it almost always goes in the conservative direction. Note the number of "very Blue" states that passed anti-marriage equality amendments (California) because it's the nature of any hot-button issue--it's always easier to appeal to emotions with histrionic TV ads and mailings than it is to simply present the facts on the issue, which is boring and doesn't grab people's emotions. They will nearly always vote for the status quo when in doubt.
NC is a Purple state at the statewide level, despite the Legislature taking a hard turn to the right in 2010 (as did most state legislatures). Note that even when McCrory won in 2012, almost every other statewide office remained Democratic, as has been the history: Atty General, Secretary of State, State Treasurer, DPI, State Auditor, etc. The Democratic Lt Governor candidate came within a hair's width since Lt Gov and Gov are elected separately.
Now, of course, computer-aided gerrymandering has ensured that Republicans will carry the statehouse and most Congressional districts for at least a decade, but that doesn't change the fact that the STATE as a whole is Purple. There are 700,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans in addition to almost as many Unaffiliated voters (as Republicans).
Any political analyst will list NC as one of the most Purple states, right up there with Florida and Ohio.
Any political analyst will list NC as one of the most Purple states, right up there with Florida and Ohio.
Yes, NC is purple, but it is a far more "redddish" shade of purple than several years ago.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Unbelievable.
