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View Poll Results: Who are going to vote for
Obama 51 55.43%
Romney 41 44.57%
Voters: 92. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 08-17-2012, 10:07 AM
 
Location: NC
10,005 posts, read 9,014,509 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wnewberry22 View Post
The good thing for Romney in this election is that Obama won't have the fervor that he had in 2008. In 2008 all of these college kids were so entrenched with the idea of voting for an african american candidate that it brought out liberal voters. Liberals traditionally are loudest prior to the election but rarely show up in large numbers to the polls. Obama is establishment now and won't have a large college following which will help both NC and VA. I don't mean to get off on a tirade here but I was a ranking member of the UVA College Republicans and when I would participate in our university sanctioned debates against an Obama supported, approx 8/10 had ABSOLUTELY NO idea why they wanted Obama with exception to the fact that he was "the first african american" to have a chance at winning the presidency. His policies were a carbon copy of Hilary's, he hadn't held a job for more than 4 years, by all stretches he had no experience in the job itself. If Obama were applying for a job at the cia, the fbi, the nsa, or any other ranking government entity he wouldn't have even been granted an interview...yet he now is the ranking executive over all of them....I just don't get it.

But thats off topic and I apologize. What i'm driving at is that obama had a very large, very vocal, very active base in 2008 that he simply doesn't have this year. I'm hoping that translates into less liberal voter turnout in the only southern swing states, NC AND VA. I mean for god sakes! NC hadn't gone blue since he early 70's and VA hadn't gone blue since the mid 60's!!! I truly believe the fervor surrounding him has gone and it will pave the way for Romney/Ryan.
I mean Obama still has the turnout machine set up in Chapel Hill. They are quite organized and I imagine they will get all the students to the polls particularly in light of the long early voting period. Additionally, the triangle is still growing like crazy, and I really don't think African American voters are not going to vote. I think it is also important to note that in 2011 Wake county threw out the tea party school board in a Democratic sweep.
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Old 08-17-2012, 10:50 AM
 
Location: Lincoln, NE (via SW Virginia)
1,644 posts, read 1,794,252 times
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The triangle area is nc's nova...thats for sure. Like I mentioned in an earlier post...If I were a democrat I would be very optimistic for the future...particularlly in these once gop strongholds. The upper southern states, va nc, will be the first to transition because of nova and the triangle. It is tough to say if Georgia will ever go blue but with Atlanta growing as quickly as it is I wouldn't be surprised to see it down the road...especially with a strong candidate like obama. I mean...i can't stand obama's policies but I won't pretend to deny how good that guy is at rallying a crowd.

I agree that Afircan American's as a whole are NOT going to vote...but I really don't think we are going to see the voter turnout that we saw in 2008. Obama was making history in 2008 which energized the voter base. This year, not so much. He still has a very large, very loyal following but I think the area that he is REALLY going to get hurt is middle and upper middle class suburban whites that voted for him. I saw a poll a few weeks ago from US News (i don't know how credible it was to be honest) but it was interesting. It indicated that in 08 the turnout of white suburban voters who had a median household income of 100k or higher were 70% more likely to vote for Obama in 08 as opposed to 12. Again, I'm not sure what this was based off of but I just thought the figures were a little surprising but it makes sense. This voting block is by far more concerned with economic policies rather than social policies. Typically the college student crowd will go with social issues because economic issues don't effect them to the same degree that it would a head of household for a family of five. These voters were reactionary voters in 08 because they perceived bush's economic policies as "getting them into this mess." Now, imo, they aren't likely to think that Obama got them out of it or improved their situation. And ultimately theres only so long Obama can do that whole, "we inherited a bad economy" schtick before people start to hold him accountable. This middle to upper middle class crowd will be very centralized in the areas of tech jobs and growth (nova and triangle) which will potentially turn the areas a little more red. Obviously this is all postulation on my part, but I think it makes sense that this would follow suit. Inversely, just as the wake county area which is part of the triangle voted out a tea party crowd in 2011, Fairfax county (the heart and soul of NOVA) LARGELY voted for Bob Mcdonnell (R) in 2010 which was UNHEARD OF for that area. I mean...if FAIRFAX friggin' county, the bastion of nova capital L liberalism, is going to vote for a dude that reinstated confederate history month in VA than that HAS to be a sign of things to come I would think, lol.
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Old 08-17-2012, 10:53 AM
 
Location: NC
10,005 posts, read 9,014,509 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wnewberry22 View Post
The triangle area is nc's nova...thats for sure. Like I mentioned in an earlier post...If I were a democrat I would be very optimistic for the future...particularlly in these once gop strongholds. The upper southern states, va nc, will be the first to transition because of nova and the triangle. It is tough to say if Georgia will ever go blue but with Atlanta growing as quickly as it is I wouldn't be surprised to see it down the road...especially with a strong candidate like obama. I mean...i can't stand obama's policies but I won't pretend to deny how good that guy is at rallying a crowd.

I agree that Afircan American's as a whole are NOT going to vote...but I really don't think we are going to see the voter turnout that we saw in 2008. Obama was making history in 2008 which energized the voter base. This year, not so much. He still has a very large, very loyal following but I think the area that he is REALLY going to get hurt is middle and upper middle class suburban whites that voted for him. I saw a poll a few weeks ago from US News (i don't know how credible it was to be honest) but it was interesting. It indicated that in 08 the turnout of white suburban voters who had a median household income of 100k or higher were 70% more likely to vote for Obama in 08 as opposed to 12. Again, I'm not sure what this was based off of but I just thought the figures were a little surprising but it makes sense. This voting block is by far more concerned with economic policies rather than social policies. Typically the college student crowd will go with social issues because economic issues don't effect them to the same degree that it would a head of household for a family of five. These voters were reactionary voters in 08 because they perceived bush's economic policies as "getting them into this mess." Now, imo, they aren't likely to think that Obama got them out of it or improved their situation. And ultimately theres only so long Obama can do that whole, "we inherited a bad economy" schtick before people start to hold him accountable. This middle to upper middle class crowd will be very centralized in the areas of tech jobs and growth (nova and triangle) which will potentially turn the areas a little more red. Obviously this is all postulation on my part, but I think it makes sense that this would follow suit. Inversely, just as the wake county area which is part of the triangle voted out a tea party crowd in 2011, Fairfax county (the heart and soul of NOVA) LARGELY voted for Bob Mcdonnell (R) in 2010 which was UNHEARD OF for that area. I mean...if FAIRFAX friggin' county, the bastion of nova capital L liberalism, is going to vote for a dude that reinstated confederate history month in VA than that HAS to be a sign of things to come I would think, lol.
I never said that. I think they will vote and in large numbers. Part of what I do is travel around to rural predominantly AA areas like the Roanoke basin and folks there are still quite excited about Obama. Many African Americans in those areas think he has been criticized unfairly and have his back.

As to Fairfax bear in mind it voted for Bush in 2000. I also don't think you can draw comparisons between NOVA and any NC region effectively. They are very different in terms of what drives them economically. Also please link your poll.

Last edited by Randomstudent; 08-17-2012 at 11:01 AM..
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Old 08-17-2012, 11:05 AM
 
Location: Lincoln, NE (via SW Virginia)
1,644 posts, read 1,794,252 times
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Fairfax has changed a lot since 2000. The population EXPLODED in the years leading up to 07-08. NOVA still felt a little southern in 99-00...since then not even a little which is why so many people were shocked when McDonnell won so handily.

I'm sure that the african american voters are still excited about obama...but it doesn't mean that they'll go out and vote in november which is all that matters. No one cares if they have a bumper sticker and spend time talking about it over coffee. Their voting block is just weak...it has historically been weak and I don't think it will be as strong this year.
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Old 08-17-2012, 11:09 AM
 
Location: NC
10,005 posts, read 9,014,509 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wnewberry22 View Post
Fairfax has changed a lot since 2000. The population EXPLODED in the years leading up to 07-08. NOVA still felt a little southern in 99-00...since then not even a little which is why so many people were shocked when McDonnell won so handily.

I'm sure that the african american voters are still excited about obama...but it doesn't mean that they'll go out and vote in november which is all that matters. No one cares if they have a bumper sticker and spend time talking about it over coffee. Their voting block is just weak...it has historically been weak and I don't think it will be as strong this year.
They came out strong in 2008. I just don't see why the won't vote again. In North Carolina voting is very easy. We have long early voting periods, and Obama is quite organized here. I cannot think of a reason why they just wouldn't vote.
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Old 08-17-2012, 11:14 AM
 
Location: Lincoln, NE (via SW Virginia)
1,644 posts, read 1,794,252 times
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For the same reason they didn't in 04, 00, 96, 92.

I'm not going to pretend to know what the reason it....but the turnout has just been historically low. However this is all speculation on my part. No one knows until the day after the election happens. I just don't think they will...same with college students. The zeal that I saw on campuses and in general dialogue in 08 just isn't there this year...and if it is somewhere than I'm just missing it, I guess.
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Old 08-17-2012, 11:46 AM
 
Location: Raleigh NC
3,269 posts, read 7,257,743 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by topchief1 View Post
I agree that there is not too much difference between Obama and Romney. Republicans like to scream Marxist and Socialist to whip people up into a frenzy, but most of Obama's policies and his actions as president (including Obamacare), are fairly conservative in nature.
Spending more in 3 years than the first 42 presidents combined is not fairly conservative. It might be different if his plans hadn't failed but they did which makes it a complete waste of money.

Quote:
Originally Posted by topchief1 View Post
One thing I can't understand, is Romney's unnerving inability to tell the truth about anything. I'm not talking about your typical political stuff, like twisting your opponents actions to meet your message, or isolating a section of your opponents speech and misrepresenting it, because both sides are doing that.
Obama frequently lies but since it's political stuff I guess it's okay.

Quote:
Originally Posted by wnewberry22 View Post
The good thing for Romney in this election is that Obama won't have the fervor that he had in 2008.
The other advantage for Romney is Obama has no record to run on which is why you won't see a political ad from Obama's side touting what a great job he's done. They are all attack ads and almost every single ad has been proven false.



I truly felt Obama would get reelected but now I just can't understand how any citizen concerned about the stability of this country could fathom the idea of our President's reelection.
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Old 08-17-2012, 12:19 PM
 
Location: Raleigh, NC
10,396 posts, read 19,409,569 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by poppydog View Post
Y'know wnewberry, NC has plenty of its own Democrats, too. I'm a life-long NC resident as is my spouse. My mother-in-law is as well and she's a 73yr old Obama supporter. My dad has passed on now, but his sister is in her 80s and has long been a staunch Democrat.

NC actually has a proud tradition of progressive politics as well as conservativism. We've long been a purple state. We've had many, many progressive Democrats as governor as well as electing uber-conservative Republicans like Jesse Helms year after year. We've been pretty well divided for many years before transplants started making their way to us in any great numbers.
Exactly! NC was Democratic at the state level for many years--suddenly now, with more transplants than ever, we went RED at the state level! How does wnewberry22 (has he ever set foot in NC?) explain that? Yes, many transplants are more progressive than many native NC'ians, but there are also huge numbers of Catholics moving down from Long Island, New Jersey etc who generally register and vote Republican, so you cannot say across the board that transplants are making NC Blue. Some of the most conservative members of the NC Legislature (e.g. Paul Stam of Apex, speaker of the House) are from very transplant-heavy areas. The last Republican to represent Chapel Hill in Congress was very much a "Noo Yawka" (Fred Heinemann, in the 1990s) who lost to Southerner David Price, a fairly liberal Democrat. Please, learn more about the politics of this state before making declarations.

NC is a purple state that teeters between Red and Blue with the wind, sometimes. Mostly it is a rural/urban thing with cities going Blue and rural areas going Red. There have always been very progressive/liberal Southerners in this state (not to mention the African-American population, who vote something like 95% Democratic). Yes, transplants are changing the politics of SOME areas, but a very high number of tranplants are moving to suburban areas such as Cary/Apex or Union county and registering Republican, even if many are "country club" (mostly fiscal) Republicans. Partly because they are "Northeast Republican" and don't realize for a few election cycles that Southern GOP is a whole different animal (much more obsessed with social issues than NE Republicans) for the most part.
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Old 08-17-2012, 12:23 PM
 
Location: Charlotte, NC
1,969 posts, read 3,072,621 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by underPSI View Post
Spending more in 3 years than the first 42 presidents combined is not fairly conservative. It might be different if his plans hadn't failed but they did which makes it a complete waste of money.

The myth of Obama's spending binge - The Plum Line - The Washington Post

This is an opinion article, but it is taking specific numbers. Obama's spending may have risen, but at the lowest levels in a long long time. The reason the nation debt keeps ballooning is because the amount of revenue the coutry takes in had dropped precipituously, mostly due to Bush's tax cuts, but it's not because of spending.
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Old 08-17-2012, 12:30 PM
 
Location: Union County
5,787 posts, read 8,428,797 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by underPSI View Post
I truly felt Obama would get reelected but now I just can't understand how any citizen concerned about the stability of this country could fathom the idea of our President's reelection.
This is pure comedic gold... LOL
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