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Location: Charlotte,NC, US, North America, Earth, Alpha Quadrant,Milky Way Galaxy
3,770 posts, read 7,546,909 times
Reputation: 2118
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SunnyKayak
That what amazes me or disappointed in Kay could really use some key legislation or lack of strength in bills that Tillis passed that could give her more of leg up like the VaginaCycle bill, like you mention fracking and the slap on wrist coal ash bill.
Heck she could also get him for the Amendment One which he still fighting, even though their still a lot animosity of people vote being canceled out on that bill particularly in rural NC however those voters wouldnt flip regardless so she should fire up the base on how he passing these unconstitutional laws.
She should also mention that the republicans blocked her bills from being passed (it was their stradegy for this midterm). Instead letting him label her as done nothing.
With all the money the media claim spent their still isnt serious mud slinging like with Helms-Hunt race.
I also think portion of money spent should go to worthy cause for NC.
I voted early yesterday so the ads are a bit moot now, but they really are entertaining. I don't know if a political group can place an ad to follow another competitive groups ad but the Tillis and then Hagan spots are entertaining.
Location: The place where the road & the sky collide
23,814 posts, read 34,688,469 times
Reputation: 10256
Quote:
Originally Posted by WaldoKitty
An interesting statistic. The HP #s don't seem to include the weekend's tally, but that none the less is interesting. i.e. 3 out of 5 voters are 60 or older. That can't bode well for Hagan.
Why not? There are 3 generations in that age group. That's a useless category. That includes half of the baby boomers. Female boomers are not going to think warm cozy thoughts about a lot of Tillis' handiwork in Raleigh. Many of us graduated from college before gender-segregated want ads were banished. The excuse was always pregnancy. Reliable birth control changed that. Members of all 3 generations in the 60 or older group fought for women's rights. Unless women cast votes for religious reasons, Tillis has no reason to have a good feeling about that.
I generally don't put much stock in the NYT, as it's a shill for the status quo, but in this case the author understands, somewhat, the complexities of statewide elections in NC.
IMO, the traditional Jessiecrat-Democrat have abandoned Hagan. If she is is to hold her seat she needs a huge turnout in the under 30 crowd where the Democrats of that generation tend to be much more limited in their views of Red vs Blue. So far, however, they are no-shows.
Polling today also suggests this race isn't breaking her way. She is the incumbent and should be polling much higher now. But if anything she has dropped below the 45% which historically, is a death knell for an incumbent senator's reelection efforts. She (or rather the Democratic Majority PAC) has tried to ignite a gender war with trying to paint Tillis as anti-woman, but I don't think that strategy works much past her base.
The election isn't over, but her camp can't be happy right now.
(My personal opinion is this is still Tillis's battle to win and pulling even with Hagan isn't going to do it. )
An interesting statistic. The HP #s don't seem to include the weekend's tally, but that none the less is interesting. i.e. 3 out of 5 voters are 60 or older. That can't bode well for Hagan.
Wait for the weekend tally. I early voted yesterday and there were a lot of people under 60. Plus, the over 60 can vote for Hagan too.
Location: The place where the road & the sky collide
23,814 posts, read 34,688,469 times
Reputation: 10256
Quote:
Originally Posted by NorasMom
Wait for the weekend tally. I early voted yesterday and there were a lot of people under 60. Plus, the over 60 can vote for Hagan too.
Precisely. A lot of fiscal conservative Republican women voted against their own best interest in the last 2 elections, not to mention the religious right. I think that Hagan is taking a calculated risk to hammer the women's issues & not touch Amendment One or several other issues. Reproductive issues are paramount to gender equality. She's also running an ad with an older woman who says that Tillis' fiscal policies hurt older people. I think that the figure to watch is the gender breakdown not the age. If the top age group was 70 & above it might hold more water.
I generally don't put much stock in the NYT, as it's a shill for the status quo, but in this case the author understands, somewhat, the complexities of statewide elections in NC.
IMO, the traditional Jessiecrat-Democrat have abandoned Hagan. If she is is to hold her seat she needs a huge turnout in the under 30 crowd where the Democrats of that generation tend to be much more limited in their views of Red vs Blue. So far, however, they are no-shows.
Polling today also suggests this race isn't breaking her way. She is the incumbent and should be polling much higher now. But if anything she has dropped below the 45% which historically, is a death knell for an incumbent senator's reelection efforts. She (or rather the Democratic Majority PAC) has tried to ignite a gender war with trying to paint Tillis as anti-woman, but I don't think that strategy works much past her base.
The election isn't over, but her camp can't be happy right now.
(My personal opinion is this is still Tillis's battle to win and pulling even with Hagan isn't going to do it. )
You do like to cherry-pick things. Reminds me of someone else. Why not was rhetorical. I answered why not. If women over 60 don't vote against their own interest they will vote for Hagan regardless of party. Tillis is now being tied to Paul Ryan's handy-dandy voucher-for-Medicare idea & he had Ryan campaign with him. Voucher-for-Medicare went over like a lead balloon.
They can, but many many seniors are completely incensed over the changes that Obamacare brought to Medicare. There were huge cuts and above a certain age, it no longer pays for any tests. (best to let grandma die). They feel they were betrayed because Medicare, unlike Medicaid, is a plan for workers as you have to pay into it to receive it and all of them have been paying into it for a long time.
It's no doubt one of the reasons for the very high turnout amongst this crowd.
Quote:
Originally Posted by southbound_295
... If women over 60 don't vote against their own interest they will vote for Hagan regardless of party. ...
Seems that you are making assumptions again that are not based on the real economics of the matter. Medicare affects women far far more than men. Hagan's message is towards young women and they, beyond her stalwart base, don't seem to be turning out.
Why has there been no discussion on this thread about the candidate with the BIGGEST signs ... In purple to confuse ... Apodaca? Is anyone out there ready to pull a lever for this guy?
I think if these trends bear out, Tillis will lose decisively. In a typical two candidate race, unaffiliated voters break towards the GOP by around 60%. Even under the assumption Tillis gets all the GOP vote, he's collecting around 46% in total.
I don't think this is a typical election. Tillis soured some segments of the party, he'll probably get some fraction of the GOP vote and he may get a smaller fraction than usual of the unaffiliateds.
The strong female percentages also speak poorly to his prospects.
if voter fraud is fixed it will turn elections on its head.
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