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I also think back to 2014, when Hagan was leading in the polls up to election day, and Tillis won.
This is true and a good point, but it is also true that it was a midterm election. Midterm elections tend to favor Republicans and have a lower turn out with Democratic voters.
In 2014, Hagan had a mere ,7% aggregate lead in the polls in the final pre-election weeks. She only by led bt three in her most favorable poll, was tied in some, behind in others. As stated, the composition of the 2016 will be vastly different from 2014.
In 2014, Hagan had a mere ,7% aggregate lead in the polls in the final pre-election weeks. She only by led bt three in her most favorable poll, was tied in some, behind in others. As stated, the composition of the 2016 will be vastly different from 2014.
Elections will always be different, we can only look back to past elections to get some reference point.
The polls in October 2016 point to a Clinton national victory, and this alone should should give Democrats a lot of optimism. Only the morning of November 9th will tell us what really happens.
But Clinton's main selling point seems to be to deny a Trump presidency.
Republicans can only imagine "what if" - if it were someone else, anyone else running against Clinton.
I think that if Clinton wins, and then Trump fades away, that Republicans are probably in for a good result in 2018 and 2020, especially in NC.
Much has been made about the urban/rural divide in North Carolina. In comparing the percentages of the absentee ballots that came from urban, suburban, and rural counties, I isolated just white voters in different types of counties and their party registration to find the following (again, using the final overall 2012 data and the 10-22-16 absentee data so far).....
While more urban Democrats and urban unaffiliated voters are showing up this year so far than in comparison to the overall 2012 performance, it appears that urban Republicans are not casting absentee ballots, at this point in 2016's absentee voting, at the same potential rate as their 2012 overall percentage
Whoever wins the national election, will enter office with the highest negatives ever. I do not see any type of "honeymoon" couple of months like we saw in 2009.
As it appears Clinton will win at the moment, she has branded herself as a career politician (I guess now that's a good thing?) so I don't foresee her being able to chalk any missteps to a 'rookie' mistake.
Unfortunately, whoever wins, will most likely be facing some type of recession over the next 4 years.
North Carolina: Clinton 46%, Trump 39%, Johnson 8% (NYT/Siena)
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