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Check out the Atlas of US Presidential Elections, which has tons of data from every Presidential election going way back. Then you can also drill down on a state to get county level.
CAUTION: IT USES RED AND BLUE REVERSED FROM HOW WE USUALLY THINK OF THEM! He has Red = Democrat, Blue = Republican
So, here is the NC map for 2012, as well as a "Swing" map, showing which counties changed the most (R vs D) from 2008. Again, remember the color switch, it's confusing to what we expect). The South-Central part of the state (Lumberton, Laurinburg, etc) is getting more Democratic.
Robeson County (Lumberton) is majority minority so I would expect it to be Democratic just like the Northeastern counties are. It went 58% for Obama in 2012.
That is one 1994 looking website. I'll stick with Politico or the NY Times or WRAL where reading the data doesn't hurt.
PoliticsNC.com is a very good local site with both reasonable conservative and progressive viewpoints. Here's their page on Robeson County noting its long history of voting Democratic: http://www.politicsnc.com/robeson-county/
Check out the Atlas of US Presidential Elections, which has tons of data from every Presidential election going way back. Then you can also drill down on a state to get county level.
CAUTION: IT USES RED AND BLUE REVERSED FROM HOW WE USUALLY THINK OF THEM! He has Red = Democrat, Blue = Republican
So, here is the NC map for 2012, as well as a "Swing" map, showing which counties changed the most (R vs D) from 2008. Again, remember the color switch, it's confusing to what we expect). The South-Central part of the state (Lumberton, Laurinburg, etc) is getting more Democratic.
What mindset of someone to flip colors in the graph designs. I looked at the link beneath of county vote data and a swing county to me is one where the votes are close. If I was to speculate with that then their could be more swing counties like Lenoir where only 40 votes separated the two candidates . Also New Handover and Nash looked close. http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/d...=0&elect=0&f=1
Quote:
Originally Posted by poppydog
Robeson County (Lumberton) is majority minority so I would expect it to be Democratic just like the Northeastern counties are. It went 58% for Obama in 2012.
That is one 1994 looking website. I'll stick with Politico or the NY Times or WRAL where reading the data doesn't hurt.
PoliticsNC.com is a very good local site with both reasonable conservative and progressive viewpoints. Here's their page on Robeson County noting its long history of voting Democratic: Robeson County | PoliticsNC
IMO I think the recent floods will impact voter turn out. From people who are now either evacuated to another county, loss of cars, homes and washed out roads.
Also, I'm sure they are more concern about getting by than an election.
The smart thing is to allow these counties to allow voting be calculated out of the precinct and have a traveling bus with voting machines.
Let's say that a swing county wherein a presidential candidate won by 53% or less in 2012. By that criteria, the following are swing counties: Forsyth, Bladen, Chatham, Chowan, Franklin, Gates, Granville, Hyde, Jackson, Lenoir, Martin, Nash, New Hanover, Pitt, Richmond, Swain, Tyrrell, Watauga, and Wilson.
THAT's a Swing county--which parts will predominate is (theoretically) up in the air. It wasn't that long ago that it would flip from election to election (remember the Republican takeover of the School Board in 2011?) Though Wake has pretty much moved into the Blue for all practical purposes, these days. But nowhere near as solid as Durham or Orange, nor all of the poor rural counties in the Northeastern part of the state.
And then every single republican on the wake county schoolboard, the county board of commissioners, and raleigh city government was voted out over the following three years. And even after the general assembly gerrymandered the schoolboard districts to try to get a republican majority, they still couldn't get one.
Basically, democrats have a significant edge in wake county when they can be bothered to vote, but they don't quite have enough of an advantage to stop them from getting caught from time to time if they sleep on an election.
I do anticipate Wake will get bluer as the percentage of the population in the county continues to become more urban.
Chatham will definitely go blue, given the close proximity to Chapel Hill. I doubt Granville will go blue, even with the high African American population in Oxford. Vance might go blue with Henderson, plus it's a smaller county but I guess we'll see. On the other hand, Franklin County will likely go red along with Person.
Wake isn't super liberal like Durham and Orange, but it's still more blue than red without a doubt. Really, the only county in the upper Piedmont Urban Crescent that'll likely go red is Alamance.
Chatham and Vance are going blue.
About you doubting Granville going blue, here's the voting history of it from 1960 to now.
1960: Kennedy (D)
1964: Johnson (D)
1968: Wallace (I)
1972: Nixon (R)
1976: Carter (D)
1980: Carter (D)
1984: Reagan (R)
1988: Dukakis (D)
1992: Clinton (D)
1996: Clinton (D)
2000: Gore (D)
2004: Bush (R)
2008: Obama (D)
2012: Obama (D)
In 2012 Obama got 60% of the vote in Mecklenburg, and 55% in Wake. Wake isn't as solidly blue as Meck. If Trump has a chance to carry NC, Wake is certainly one of a small handful of counties where he could possibly find enough votes to do so.
If we are going to go by demographics, Wake households are wealthier, its adults are more educated and it is also more white than Mecklenburg. These three demographics have usually favored Republicans to a certain extent but Trump is particularly underperforming his predecessors in the college educated white demographic. This is not good news for him in Wake.
Wake may be the most important county in the state politically because its voter participation is higher than the other urban counties and it has consistently out-voted (by total votes cast) the slightly larger Mecklenburg. The swing parts of Wake had traditionally been the wealthy suburbs like Cary & Apex and north Raleigh but many of these areas have been trending more blue for a decade or more. The eastern/southeastern side of Wake continues to be a Republican stronghold but it's not nearly as populated.
IMO I think the recent floods will impact voter turn out. From people who are now either evacuated to another county, loss of cars, homes and washed out roads.
I have the same thought. That said, it's interesting that down east is split between red and blue counties. This issue could be a wild card for NC this year.
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