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Old 11-28-2016, 09:03 AM
 
Location: Raleigh, NC
10,396 posts, read 19,411,944 times
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Any look at the results county by county in a Red-Blue-Purple scheme will show just how Purple NC is.

This map* looks at every county in the country and the outcome. Note how NC is pretty evenly divided among Red, Blue, and Purple (the shades show how far from 50% each county is and in which direction).

Not much "SOLID RED" on this map except Appalachia and the Plains states. Try again.



Map attribution:
By Ali Zifan - This file was derived from: USA Counties.svg, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/inde...curid=48100979

 
Old 11-28-2016, 11:32 AM
 
6,800 posts, read 4,429,472 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by toot68 View Post
No, it is literally a "road to nowhere"

https://www.greatsmokies.com/gsmnp/road-nowhere.html
That's a unique situation and didn't involve state dollars.
 
Old 12-01-2016, 01:24 PM
 
Location: Carrboro, NC
1,461 posts, read 1,444,844 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mudduck View Post
Even a popular southerner in Bill Clinton couldn't win NC. What does that tell you
Bill Clinton supported NAFTA which shipped jobs out of the state. He deregulated the financial industry which led to the 2008 collapse. He had a secret deal to privatize social security. He was basically a Republican with softer views on social issues.

NC's democratic coalition relies on young voters more than any other state, and young voters only vote for progressive democrats. So any center-right democratic candidate will lose NC. Obama ran on a progressive platform in 2008 and won NC. He then walked back on most of his platform and became a third term of Bush, and the young voters in NC dumped him in 2012.

Pretty obvious really.

Trump isn't a real republican. Young voters absolutely hate him but would rather he win than a real republican who actually knows what they're doing and who would work with Congress to dismantle public services and turn the country into a feudal state. Trump actually outflanked Clinton on the left on some issues like trade... and Hillary Clinton was a republican in all but name. She voted for the Patriot Act, the War in Iraq, she's in the pocket of Goldman Sachs and the private prison system... So of course young voters didn't turn out to save her. If Sanders had been the nominee, he would've gotten the monster 2008 youth turnout and put up a real fight in the state.

If democrats come back with someone like Elizabeth Warren or Rocky Anderson in 2020 they have good chances to win NC.
 
Old 12-01-2016, 02:11 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vatnos View Post
Bill Clinton supported NAFTA which shipped jobs out of the state. He deregulated the financial industry which led to the 2008 collapse. He had a secret deal to privatize social security. He was basically a Republican with softer views on social issues.

NC's democratic coalition relies on young voters more than any other state, and young voters only vote for progressive democrats. So any center-right democratic candidate will lose NC. Obama ran on a progressive platform in 2008 and won NC. He then walked back on most of his platform and became a third term of Bush, and the young voters in NC dumped him in 2012.

Pretty obvious really.
This doesn't sound very plausible to me as the electorate in NC was a lot different in 1992 than in 2008, plus everything you cite regarding Clinton was after the fact. I could see it if NC broke for Clinton in '92 then went red in '96 like Georgia, but it didn't go for Clinton either time.

NC is more conservative in reality than its reputation would make it seem.
 
Old 12-01-2016, 02:25 PM
 
1,351 posts, read 750,896 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mutiny77 View Post
This doesn't sound very plausible to me as the electorate in NC was a lot different in 1992 than in 2008, plus everything you cite regarding Clinton was after the fact. I could see it if NC broke for Clinton in '92 then went red in '96 like Georgia, but it didn't go for Clinton either time.

NC is more conservative in reality than its reputation would make it seem.


Yeah, I think presidentially we've always been a pretty good lock Republican. Obama just got all the black people to come out one election and throw it off a bit. It'll be interesting to see if redistricting changes that
 
Old 12-01-2016, 05:04 PM
 
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I've been asked to post proof that Obama got a lot more of the black vote than a typical candidate, so as not to be racially insensitive:

Exit polls: How Obama won - POLITICO
96% and 1,000's of new black voters came out for him, which may have made NC blue (for president) that one time
 
Old 12-02-2016, 07:59 AM
 
Location: Chapelboro
10,672 posts, read 11,296,076 times
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This site is a wealth of information on election results throughout the years. Just bear in mind that it uses red for Democrats and blue for Republicans, but other than that little quirk it's got tons of data and you can see the results of all the presidential elections in NC on one page.

http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/c...&off=0&elect=0

It goes back to 1856 when North Carolina voted 56.78% for the Buchanan/Breckenridge Democratic ticket vs 43.22% for the Whig ticket of Fillmore/Donelson.

The Democratic party won every presidential election from 1876 to 1924, but of course it was a very different, very conservative Democratic party.

In 1928 we voted Herbert Hoover in with almost 55% of the vote to Alfred Smith's 45%.

After that we went back to voting Democrat through 1964 and elected Roosevelt 4 times and then Truman and Kennedy and Johnson. We also voted for Dem Adlai Stevenson over Rep Eisenhower in 1952 and 1956.

In 1968 Republican Nixon won North Carolina with 39.5%, but he split the vote with George Wallace (running under the 3rd part American Party ) 31.2%. Hubert Humphrey (Dem) got 29%.

In 1972 Nixon crushed McGovern in NC 69% to 29%.

In 1976 we went for the Southerner, Democrat Jimmy Carter 55% to 44% for Republican Gerald Ford.

In the 1980s Reagan, Reagan and Geo Bush the first won pretty easily.

In 1992, NC went for a second term for George HW Bush, but it was a very tight race. 43.44% to Bush, 42.65% to Bill Clinton and 13.7% to third party candidate Ross Perot.

NC voted Republican in 1996 (Bob Dole), 2000 (Bush the second) and 2004 (Bush again).

In 2008 Obama squeaked out a win in NC (49.7% to 49.4% for John McCain).

2012, Obama lost NC (48.4%) to Romney (50.4%).

Trump's win in NC was 49.8% to 46.2% for Hillary. There was a higher percentage of third party votes in this election despite the lack of a third party candidate with much of a following (no Ross Perot or George Wallace). Gary Johnson got 2.74, Jill Stein got 0.25% and write-ins got 1% (Harambe!). You have to go back to 1996 when Ross Perot ran a second time as a third party candidate and got 6.7% of the vote to find a higher percentage for a third party candidate. In 2012 the third party vote was 1.3%; 2008 it was 0.9%; 2004 it was 0.4%; and 2000 it was 0.8%.

Overall for Presidential politics I would say NC is and has been pretty conservative. Every once in awhile we'll go for the more progressive candidate, but usually it's the conservative candidate that wins in NC.

Now, for state government, that's very different. We seem to like to have Democratic governors, but will send folks like Jesse Helms to Washington. Since 1868 we have had 7 Republican governors, 4 of which were elected prior to 1902. Of course the party ideologies were flipped in the 1800s with Republicans being the party of Lincoln and Democrats being the party of the Confederacy. We kept up with the Democratic party, though, even as it began to morph into the more progressive party and we had a series of progressive and moderate Democratic governors like Kerr Scott (1948), Terry Sanford (1960) to Jim Hunt (1976, 1992). The Republican governors we had before Pat, were moderate Republicans Jim Holshouser and Jim Martin. I think a lot of people thought Pat McCrory would be a moderate Republican like Holshouser and Martin — he seemed to be a moderate mayor of Charlotte, but he turned out to be a much more conservative governor than a lot of people expected.

So, I would say NC is mixed — pretty blue Dem on Governors, and pretty red Rep on Presidents.
 
Old 12-02-2016, 08:07 AM
 
1,351 posts, read 750,896 times
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Truth. In my lifetime, NC always went red for prez, except that one time Obama mobilized a single demographic more than any candidate in history. It is getting closer, though


It'll be interesting to see if blue transplants outpace red birthrates enough to change things long-term
 
Old 12-02-2016, 08:33 AM
 
Location: Chapelboro
10,672 posts, read 11,296,076 times
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Ah, you are but a young'un then, Vulfpeck.

I think NC likes (or used to at least) moderates. Jim Hunt was a very popular governor. I think Roy follows that model. He doesn't want to make huge waves, but wants to do things that will help the NC economy and education.

For Pres, I dunno. Obama did definitely energize African American voters. The 2020 election will surely be interesting. I think NC may very well swing back Blue if the Dem candidate is engaging and energetic. We'll see.
 
Old 12-02-2016, 08:41 AM
 
29,877 posts, read 27,333,728 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by poppydog View Post
For Pres, I dunno. Obama did definitely energize African American voters. The 2020 election will surely be interesting. I think NC may very well swing back Blue if the Dem candidate is engaging and energetic. We'll see.
There are just entirely too many unknown variables to know what's going to happen in 2020. We are in uncharted waters.
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