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Old 04-22-2019, 12:20 PM
 
Location: Atlanta
2,163 posts, read 2,215,726 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Austincool View Post
As if anyone compares Charlotte and Raleigh’s city limit populations.

Charlotte’s MSA is more populated than the entire Research Triangle CSA, clearly Wake surpassing Meck isn’t saying much as it’s anchoring city and metro will never surpass that of Mecklenburg’s.
Well, there is also a difference between MSAs and CSAs of cities that are "out on their own" as the "only main employment center" surrounded by city-less counties such as Atlanta, GA, Richmond, VA and to a lessor extent Charlotte, NC

Their MSA/CSA will constitute a broader, wider area.

When cities/metros are closer together and employment centers pull from the each other's regions, someone has to decide where they should be split apart into separate MSAs/CSAs.

Like how Raleigh/Cary was extracted from the Triangle as its own MSA. How legitimate is this from a real-world perspective? Not very.

The only true and accurate basis for comparison will have to come from the same distance radius being used to demark the same land area around each metro.

Especially here the MSAs/CSAs aren't what you want to go touting so matter-of-factly. about.
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Old 04-22-2019, 01:14 PM
 
29,696 posts, read 27,133,604 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Heel82 View Post
I didn’t say Charlotte doesn’t get to count its suburbs. I explicitly noted that Charlotte suburban counties were more developed and larger than Raleigh’s. I was just noting that Wake’s Raleigh/Cary/Apex/etc now formed a bloc on par with the city of Charlotte in area and population. That wasn’t always the case and is the largest reason Wake has caught up. In 1990, Charlotte was about 30% larger than the same communities (which were also incidentally not nearly as seamless back then). So again, Wake may be bigger in area, but almost all the growth is in a footprint roughly the same size as Charlotte today and is due to a faster growth rate in said communities. Charlotte’s advantages are elsewhere.
I get it as far as the county comparisons go. I was specifically referring to the notion that, according to some (as we have been told), Raleigh is really just as big as Charlotte because it has a bunch of growth in its suburbs that it has not been able to capture through annexation and that in actuality, Charlotte is only bigger on paper. That is simply not accurate whatsoever.
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Old 04-22-2019, 01:24 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by architect77 View Post
The only true and accurate basis for comparison will have to come from the same distance radius being used to demark the same land area around each metro.
Using counties as the base unit for metropolitan areas is certainly not without its drawbacks, but simply using a radius would be even more flawed. For example, that would make Lansing, MI a larger metro than Detroit using a 30 mile radius or so if I'm not mistaken.
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Old 04-22-2019, 02:47 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mutiny77 View Post
Using counties as the base unit for metropolitan areas is certainly not without its drawbacks, but simply using a radius would be even more flawed. For example, that would make Lansing, MI a larger metro than Detroit using a 30 mile radius or so if I'm not mistaken.
Or to put it another way.....

Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill, NC CSA

Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC Metro Area
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Old 04-22-2019, 11:34 PM
 
741 posts, read 264,938 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mutiny77 View Post
I get it as far as the county comparisons go. I was specifically referring to the notion that, according to some (as we have been told), Raleigh is really just as big as Charlotte because it has a bunch of growth in its suburbs that it has not been able to capture through annexation and that in actuality, Charlotte is only bigger on paper. That is simply not accurate whatsoever.
There are some misconceptions I’m just trying to overcome. The first was the crazy notion that it was the larger area that is the reason Wake is surpassing Mecklenburg. Because again, 90% of the growth is coming from about 260 square miles. It’s in that fairly contained area that is driving the bus. The growth happening in the other 500 square miles is minuscule in comparison.

But second is to highlight the fact that annexation means we aren’t talking apples to apples with Raleigh and Charlotte. Within 4 miles of the Capitol building is another town. 7 miles from the Capitol is a different town. Drive 15 miles from the Capitol, you could get to a total of 10 towns besides Raleigh. Charlotte has multiple neighborhoods that aren’t that close to uptown. Charlotte’s metro edge is in the outlying counties, not the 300 or so square miles at the center of it all as both are home to 850,000+.
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Old 04-23-2019, 06:26 AM
 
6,270 posts, read 9,993,341 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Heel82 View Post
There are some misconceptions I’m just trying to overcome. The first was the crazy notion that it was the larger area that is the reason Wake is surpassing Mecklenburg.
This is where I have to stop you because you're simply not being logical.

Think about this for one second. During non peak traffic hours, a 25 minute drive out of downtown Raleigh to the south would take you into the Wake county town of Fuquay-Varina (population 28,000). Drive 25 minutes south of downtown Charlotte and you will arrive at the Cookout on Cherry Road in Rock Hill, South Carolina (a town of 75,000 people). Keep in mind that Fort Mill, South Carolina (population nearly 20,000) is in between Charlotte and Rock Hill (for reference, Charlotte shares Carowinds with Fort Mill).

My point here is that if Meck gain an extra 311 sq miles of land (all populated border suburbs of Meck), Meck's population would be somewhere between 1.5 and 1.6 million. Keep in mind that Charlotte's urbanized area was 1.25 million with 742 sq/miles of land nearly 10 years ago. So take my word for it, an 835 sq/mile Mecklenburg county in 2019 would be sitting at 1.5 million-plus (possibly even 1.6 million depending on which directions the new territory focuses on).

Below you'll find a third party reference to every claim that I've made in this post.

Charlotte, NC--SC Urbanized Area

In reference to the link above, do a little quick math. This was a 2017 estimate. Add 40,000 people to adjust for 2018 and add another 100,000 (the 100 sq/mile difference of Wake vs Charlotte's urbanized area) from the adjacent urbanized areas of Concord, Gastonia, and Rock Hill which are not included with Charlotte. What you have is an 835 sq/mile Mecklenburg county with 1.6 million residents. And THAT'S my point.

Last edited by urbancharlotte; 04-23-2019 at 06:47 AM..
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Old 04-23-2019, 06:29 AM
 
Location: Washington DC
3,739 posts, read 3,263,751 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Heel82 View Post
There are some misconceptions I’m just trying to overcome. The first was the crazy notion that it was the larger area that is the reason Wake is surpassing Mecklenburg. Because again, 90% of the growth is coming from about 260 square miles. It’s in that fairly contained area that is driving the bus. The growth happening in the other 500 square miles is minuscule in comparison.

But second is to highlight the fact that annexation means we aren’t talking apples to apples with Raleigh and Charlotte. Within 4 miles of the Capitol building is another town. 7 miles from the Capitol is a different town. Drive 15 miles from the Capitol, you could get to a total of 10 towns besides Raleigh. Charlotte has multiple neighborhoods that aren’t that close to uptown. Charlotte’s metro edge is in the outlying counties, not the 300 or so square miles at the center of it all as both are home to 850,000+.
2 things:

1.) Charlotte is larger than Raleigh, period. You don’t need mental gymnastics to come to that conclusion. Unless you want to tell me Gastonia or Concord is just as large as Durham. If Raleigh were as big as Charlotte.... then the triangle would need to be much larger than Charlotte metro because you still have this thing called Durham.


2.) larger land area is why Wake is surpassing Meck. That’s not a misconception. That’s fact.

Id imagine the triangle would have to grow quite a bit larger that metro Charlotte until Raleigh is as big as Charlotte. Why do you think Raleigh & Durham até separate metros & Charlotte & Gastonia are not?

Mecklenburg would dramatically increase in population if it gobbled up just a tiny bit of amoorseville & Concord. It wouldnt even need the actual downtown parts of each, just the populous portion on the border. That’s the problem coming up with fictitious hypotheticals. You start cherry picking which areas to include. I could easily shrink Charlotte’s city limit size, redraw the city limits and make the population increase by 100,000 despite much smaller city limits. That’s pretty much what you’re doing with your hypothetical of a smaller wake

Last edited by Charlotte485; 04-23-2019 at 07:04 AM..
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Old 04-23-2019, 08:02 AM
 
Location: Raleigh, NC
917 posts, read 486,116 times
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I'll take a shot at trying to simply this back and forth.

I believe the only point Heel is trying to make is that though it is accurate that Wake County will pass Meck in population because it's significantly larger in physical size, to someone that doesn't know any better while reading this thread the first couple responses by the usual Charlotte sensitive can be a bit discrediting. Though a response like "it has 311 more miles" is true, it makes it sound to someone not familiar that "oh Wake has a lot more population growing throughout a significantly larger area." As if the population is more evenly spread throughout all this extra land. When really a vast majority of the population and its growth is coming from a fraction of the county. Which can be reflected in the census reporter urbanized area of Raleigh.

https://censusreporter.org/profiles/...rbanized-area/

Basically... Wake will be larger then Meck and any argument against it is dumb and usually just comes from those that get an ego from it for some reason. Who cares. Charlotte is larger than Raleigh and it can't be argued otherwise. City vs city, UA, MSA, whatever. Wake passing Meck doesn't change that. Who cares. But when some like to take opportunities to needlessly try and discredit facts with broad (though accurate) statements, sometimes others like to also take the opportunity to add more details and clarify further.

I think that's all that was being attempted here.
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Old 04-23-2019, 08:30 AM
 
741 posts, read 264,938 times
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Wake and Durham are in separate metros through a quirk in the system. It has more commuting traffic between the two than any other two counties in the state. But as the majority go from Wake to Durham AND Wake is more populous. So under the formula, neither can be considered the anchor to the other so they are separated.

We could redraw lines if we wanted. I could take out 500 square miles of eastern Wake, add the bottom third of Durham, and have a bigger population on half the land. But redrawing lines is hypothetical. I’m not redrawing lines. I’m just noting two things. One, 90% of Wake’s growth is located in 30% of its land area so it’s disingenuous to say Wake’s eastern fringes where towns have added a whopping 2000 people this decade are the culprits. And two, the area of the city of Charlotte, from Northlake to Ballantyne to Steele Creek covers almost exactly the same area as Raleigh and friends. And for the first time, the two incorporated areas are on roughly equal footing as each other population-wise. That wasn’t the case in years past. So yes, we could add land to Charlotte’s city limit to keep it bigger. Annexation is always an option. But the point remains, metro Charlotte is bigger because York and Union are bigger than Johnston and Chatham. The center of the Triangle and Charlotte are about the same in area and population (and therefore the all important density).
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Old 04-23-2019, 08:50 AM
 
29,696 posts, read 27,133,604 times
Reputation: 18232
Quote:
Originally Posted by Heel82 View Post
There are some misconceptions I’m just trying to overcome. The first was the crazy notion that it was the larger area that is the reason Wake is surpassing Mecklenburg. Because again, 90% of the growth is coming from about 260 square miles. It’s in that fairly contained area that is driving the bus. The growth happening in the other 500 square miles is minuscule in comparison.
Why is that a "crazy" notion to you? You may consider it inaccurate (and I'm taking you for your word on this as I haven't seen a source), but it's not some illogical, far-fetched notion whatsoever. If two places with similar populations are growing at similar rates and one has a good bit more land, it is very reasonable to assume that the one with more land will eventually surpass the other, if current growth rates hold.

Quote:
But second is to highlight the fact that annexation means we aren’t talking apples to apples with Raleigh and Charlotte. Within 4 miles of the Capitol building is another town. 7 miles from the Capitol is a different town. Drive 15 miles from the Capitol, you could get to a total of 10 towns besides Raleigh. Charlotte has multiple neighborhoods that aren’t that close to uptown. Charlotte’s metro edge is in the outlying counties, not the 300 or so square miles at the center of it all as both are home to 850,000+.
OK, I'm honestly tired of this merry-go-round at this point because it seems you're being willfully obtuse.
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