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Old 03-15-2020, 07:29 PM
 
1,083 posts, read 898,223 times
Reputation: 2166

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Quote:
Originally Posted by oneluckymug View Post
The 2 nations that have done the best job testing are probably South Korea and Germany. They have a fatality rate of 0.4-0.6% (SK)

I don't think you understand math. SK has 8,162 total cases. Of those 75 resulted in deaths, 510 resulted in recovery. That means only 585 have been resolved. Of the resolved cases, the death rate is 12.8% (much better than Italy but still incredibly scary). For Germany you only have a handful of resolved cases so its way too early to estimate a death rate.

Assuming all the unresolved cases (7,577 still) in SK result in recoveries the death rate would be 0.9%. Assuming all result in death, the rate would be 94%. Both of those scenarios will not happen and should not be considered realistic outcomes.
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Old 03-15-2020, 07:40 PM
 
1,083 posts, read 898,223 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oneluckymug View Post
It's certainly a lot better than the 34 times worse than the flu that was initially reported.

Its certainly not. Italy has 1,809 deaths to 2,335 recoveries. This is what happens if you let it spread to the point that the ICU units are overwhelmed. Please stop spreading information that is not factual. People need to have an appropriate level of fear so that they take appropriate precautions. Doing so will save thousands of lives.
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Old 03-16-2020, 01:32 PM
 
2,691 posts, read 3,812,415 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pfalz View Post
Its certainly not. Italy has 1,809 deaths to 2,335 recoveries. This is what happens if you let it spread to the point that the ICU units are overwhelmed. Please stop spreading information that is not factual. People need to have an appropriate level of fear so that they take appropriate precautions. Doing so will save thousands of lives.
Italy has 27980 cases and 2158 deaths.
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Old 03-16-2020, 07:44 PM
 
2,064 posts, read 1,044,990 times
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Ignore the troll.
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Old 03-16-2020, 07:51 PM
 
1,083 posts, read 898,223 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HP91 View Post
Italy has 27980 cases and 2158 deaths.

Correct. And most of those cases are not yet resolved. Most will recover and unfortunately some will not. The fatality rate should only be calculated using the cases the are closed not all active cases.
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Old 03-16-2020, 08:37 PM
 
Location: Raleigh NC
20,343 posts, read 10,781,902 times
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Italy has a VERY high rate of death. It is incredibly factually important to understand:

Who has died (age, medical history, etc)?
How did they contract?
Where are they (big city, small town, etc)?
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Old 03-17-2020, 10:17 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RogueMom View Post
Or the most over-hyped.
Wow. Some people still don't get it.
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Old 03-17-2020, 12:04 PM
 
30,181 posts, read 36,671,889 times
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And to whomever sent me the negative rep - it's folks like YOU that are the problem.
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Old 03-17-2020, 03:21 PM
 
Location: Washington DC
4,421 posts, read 3,962,509 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChessieMom View Post
And to whomever sent me the negative rep - it's folks like YOU that are the problem.
I got one also saying I'm not an expert.

Which I know I'm not. I was responding to people who said last week that it's just over hyped, etc. look pretty foolish now that the economy might contract by as much as 4%, In NC Schools and Bars are shut down. I don't follow NC as closely as DC as far as local news, but here Movie theaters are closed, flights are canceled, etc. etc. etc.

So yeah. In retrospect, those who thumped their chest "Oh, 26,000 DOW is a Dip.. Buy Buy Buy! Everyone is dumb but me! Next week, this will be old news and all will be forgotten and we'll be back at 29,000"

Yep. Great call!
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Old 03-17-2020, 04:12 PM
 
3,375 posts, read 5,521,407 times
Reputation: 2440
Now restaurants and bars are closed. Take out is still available.
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