Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
It's hard to say if this year's results will line up with how NC voted historically.
2. Trump is increasingly unpopular among urban dwellers, and according to 2013-2017 American Community Survey, only 28% of NC population lives in rural areas, as opposed to 72% of urban areas.
3. The state's population distribution (urban vs rural) has been changing even more in the last 4-5 years. Majority of transplants move to urban areas. Mecklenburg and Wake are two of the highest growing counties in the country. It's the fact that both counties have been more and more leaning Democratic. Here is the link on how people voted in last election. You can see most of the urban areas voted for Hillary.
I think the I-85 corridor between Charlotte and Greensboro is one of the most interesting parts of the Piedmont: Rowan County, Randolph County, Davidson County, and Cabarrus County aren't particularly large in and of themselves, but collectively they have over 600,000 people.
Collectively they overwhelmingly voted for Trump and gave him 200,000 votes which is slightly more than the number of votes cast for Clinton in Durham and Orange County combined.
The other thing that will be interesting to see is if there is a change in the Democratic margin in Mecklenburg, Wake, Guildford, and Forsyth. While those "blue" counties went mainly for Clinton, it wasn't as overwhelming as rural areas and mid-size areas voting for Trump. Trump still managed to pick up 33% - 43% of the votes in those "blue" counties while Clinton struggled to get 25 - 30% of the vote in "red" counties.
I think the I-85 corridor between Charlotte and Greensboro is one of the most interesting parts of the Piedmont: Rowan County, Randolph County, Davidson County, and Cabarrus County aren't particularly large in and of themselves, but collectively they have over 600,000 people.
Collectively they overwhelmingly voted for Trump and gave him 200,000 votes which is slightly more than the number of votes cast for Clinton in Durham and Orange County combined.
The other thing that will be interesting to see is if there is a change in the Democratic margin in Mecklenburg, Wake, Guildford, and Forsyth. While those "blue" counties went mainly for Clinton, it wasn't as overwhelming as rural areas and mid-size areas voting for Trump. Trump still managed to pick up 33% - 43% of the votes in those "blue" counties while Clinton struggled to get 25 - 30% of the vote in "red" counties.
One thing to consider is that voter turnout during 2016 was somewhat odd. African American's turnout sharply declined. It declined almost 8%, additionally rural whites voted for Trump in droves.
The question is:
1. Will African-Americans come out and vote for Joe? Polls suggest that this demographic is MUCH MUCH more excited about Joe than Hillary (this is nationwide stat)
2. Will Trump be able to to repeat his voter turn out as he did in 2016. I am pretty sure his die hard supporters will vote for him. But, it's pandemic and most of his supporter are 55+. Considering how much misinformation Trump has already spread about mail-in ballots, will his supporters plan to vote in-person? Will they actually show up on that day considering Covid numbers are going up again. And, Trump got it too demonstrating that no one is exempt from the virus.
Last edited by HatchChile; 10-05-2020 at 09:08 AM..
Reason: deleted stuff not-related to NC
1. Will African-Americans come out and vote for Joe? Polls suggest that this demographic is MUCH MUCH more excited about Joe than Hillary (this is nationwide stat)
Don't forget that Trump has gained a lot of ground with the Black community. Still he is not in the lead by any means, but he has more ground than any other republican had for years.
Don't forget that Trump has gained a lot of ground with the Black community. Still he is not in the lead by any means, but he has more ground than any other republican had for years.
It's about 10%. So I wouldn't count on it. All polls showing that over 80% of African Americans back Joe Biden. There is about 10% of undecided voters that historically vote Dem because that's their default party.
Trump's response to George Floyd's death and subsequent protests didn't help his cause. He won about 14% of the Black vote in 2016, I doubt he'd do the same this time. Not denouncing Proud Boys was another huge mistake. He tried to walk back on it after the debates, but "stand back and stand by" is all that's remembered now. And, it won't just disappear.
Don't forget that Trump has gained a lot of ground with the Black community. Still he is not in the lead by any means, but he has more ground than any other republican had for years.
LOL, sorry man but that sounds totally delusional.
Edit: Actually, it IS totally delusional.
Last edited by Royal James; 10-05-2020 at 12:28 PM..
LOL, sorry man but that sounds totally delusional.
I think this is the latest conservative media rhetoric; that Trump has gained a lot of support among African-Americans. I read somewhere that for optics they have been placing African-Americans and other reps of minority groups (and people in masks) right behind Trump's podium during his rallies. This gives TV viewers an impression that there are POCs supporting Trump, and his rallies are following rules by people wearing masks. However, if you look at other pictures and videos taken from the same rallies, the audience is overwhelmingly white and old, and very few people are wearing masks.
I think this is the latest conservative media rhetoric; that Trump has gained a lot of support among African-Americans. I read somewhere that for optics they have been placing African-Americans and other reps of minority groups (and people in masks) right behind Trump's podium during his rallies. This gives TV viewers an impression that there are POCs supporting Trump, and his rallies are following rules by people wearing masks. However, if you look at other pictures and videos taken from the same rallies, the audience is overwhelmingly white and old, and very few people are wearing masks.
I remember him pointing at one of his rallies and saying "Here's my black guy!" That's not going to ingratiate himself with either the NAACP or BLM crowd. I know he's down at least 1 black voter ...Herman Cain.
But he may keep Ben Carson in the fold for a while.
"Trump is increasingly unpopular among urban dwellers, and according to 2013-2017 American Community Survey, only 28% of NC population lives in rural areas, as opposed to 72% of urban areas."
That must consider the many micropolitan areas to be urban, like Benson and Dunn.
So that statistic doesn't mean much in predictions on how residents of NC will vote.
"Trump is increasingly unpopular among urban dwellers, and according to 2013-2017 American Community Survey, only 28% of NC population lives in rural areas, as opposed to 72% of urban areas."
That must consider the many micropolitan areas to be urban, like Benson and Dunn.
So that statistic doesn't mean much in predictions on how residents of NC will vote.
It affects the whole country. NC is a huge state. A Trump or Biden win could be a huge deciding factor as to who wins the presidency. The Senate is federal as well. It might affect the Senate majority. And plus I live in a state right beside NC, and I travel a lot to the outer banks for holiday. I am in general a strong republican and will always want the republican to prevail unless it is an extremely unusual situation such as the GOP candidate sheriff in NH. I like what Forest has said about eliminating all the virus restrictions including masks!
there's a reason I asked about the Governor's race and not the Senate race. I'm well aware that our Senate seat is extremely important in the balance of the Senate.
And it's clear your interest is vastly more "I want Republicans to win" than "neighboring state".
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
