Real Estate appreciation Long Term $$ (Charlotte, Jacksonville: mortgage, houses, job market)

[Weloveantiques]

I see alot of folks leaving Florida, I wouldn't mind being one of them. My only question is.... Long term finances..

Will my house values go up in NC, SC or TN like they probably will here long term? I mean if someone left California or Long Island or Florida or New Jersey 20 years ago and moved to the Carolinas, I don't think they would be as well off now financially as the neighbors they left behind that are now selling their houses for big $. I Know several people that sold their Florida homes 4 or 5 years ago and now can't afford to move back here.

What will my house in FL be worth in 20 years?? What will a house in the Carolinas be worth?? Wish I had a crystal ball!!!

[dbay]

That's a good question. I see alot of these big beautiful homes in remote locations being built. I wonder when the boomer buying and selling finally slows
in 5-10 years what they will be worth.I think, but I could be wrong, that this
boomer migration is going to slow considerably in the net decade.

[Miker2069]

There's an interesting article which I'll try to dig up. It pretty much says that on average, houses double in value every 17 years (maybe give or take a few years). So it's going to go up (even the holes in the wall type houses).

The question being will it have this accelerated rate of increase as the Northeast and California has? Personally I hope not. I hope it's a nice steady moderate increase that outpaces inflation, and is a result of real economic growth in the area. The last few years has been a national RE bubble driven by speculators. Very similar in effect to the tech bubble of the 90s in which all salaries, stock prices, etc., all became inflated- for no really good reason. When it crashed, it crashed hard for a lot of people who thought it would go up forever (and who adjusted their lifestyles to match the upswing, then got caught on the downswing).

In terms of those who moved 20 years ago, if you moved from the Northeast to NC I'd suspect your mortgage is near paid off, so possibly won't be an issue, plus, hey I may have wanted to be in NC for the last 20 years myself!

[Weloveantiques]

Well I'm looking at the appreciation aspect... My house in Florida has more than tripled in 9 years. I'm talking about the scenario of 2 familys...1 leaves the northeast 20 years ago and buys a house in Charlotte for... lets say 80K. The other family stays in Boston, Long Island, NJ or wherever and they buy a house 20 years ago for maybe 125K.. Houses cost more there then too!

Now fast forward 20 years to today, both houses are paid off, the house in Charlotte is now worth $240K, the house in Boston is now worth 600K. I'm just pulling numbers out of thin air but it is something to consider.

My neighbor bought his house here in Jacksonville in 1977 for 80K, it sold last year for 550K.
I'm just worried about selling our home here and finding that it quadrupled in the next 20 years.

[Weis02]

I do not know if there is any answer. Like someone mentioned, the IT market crashed after 2000 and while there has been a bounce back, nothing like then, may never recover to where it was (Ex Cisco stock was in the 80;s, it would go down but always went back up, now it barely pierces 21)

As for housing, I purchased my house is 1996, on LI for $188,000 (and i thought I overpaid) the same house now sells for $550k-$575k, last yr though people in my neighborhood were getting OVER $600k.

As for who is better, if I move down there and use the equity in my home, I have no mortage, if I stay here my mortage will be paid off - it is other costs and salary is where the figure comes into play. If I have no mortage I can save more and in fact have more for my childrens education

In 16 yrs when my mortage is paid, (haven't saved a lot due to high costs) my son will graduate college with a lot more debt, it is one half dozen

I want to add (I think I posted this somewhere else) you cannot make a decision to move just because housing is cheaper/taxes. WHile, yes that is a big part of the equation, it is relative...When we compared costs, elec, water, etc, the difference between here and down there is not that different. If you make less even wihtout a mortage, at the end of the mo you have the same $$ as here vs there you have to say "What have I gained" Whether quality of life. change, whatever the motivation it has to be more then housing....I know if I left here, I would never be able to afford to come back...while houses have dropped and may only rise 2-3% yr after yr, if I sold a house down there for $400 but now my same house is $650k, I am where I started when I left off...this is a decision I am struggling with as well as jobs. My husband works in NYC, there will be (even after 911 opportunities there, NYC will continue to grow - it may slow but growth there will never stop, it never has...We are unfamilair with the job market, Charlotte is banking/Fin...RTP is tech, etc...we have it all here...That;s why I do my research, hear everyone's opionions, look at my own situation and then make a decision....There is a certain non-monetary cost with moving and relocating a family that needs to be added to the equation

[Miker2069]

Originally Posted by Weloveantiques

Well I'm looking at the appreciation aspect... My house in Florida has more than tripled in 9 years. I'm talking about the scenario of 2 familys...1 leaves the northeast 20 years ago and buys a house in Charlotte for... lets say 80K. The other family stays in Boston, Long Island, NJ or wherever and they buy a house 20 years ago for maybe 125K.. Houses cost more there then too!

Now fast forward 20 years to today, both houses are paid off, the house in Charlotte is now worth $240K, the house in Boston is now worth 600K. I'm just pulling numbers out of thin air but it is something to consider.

My neighbor bought his house here in Jacksonville in 1977 for 80K, it sold last year for 550K.
I'm just worried about selling our home here and finding that it quadrupled in the next 20 years.

So you feel like you'll leave money on the table if that happens?

[Miker2069]

Originally Posted by WenIs02

As for who is better, if I move down there and use the equity in my home, I have no mortage, if I stay here my mortage will be paid off - it is other costs and salary is where the figure comes into play. If I have no mortage I can save more and in fact have more for my childrens education

Wen, you've described the secret of wealth building
Imagine if you took what you were paying in mortgage and put it towards a modest growth mutual fund, in 16 years you've more than funded a couple of college funds!

[Weloveantiques]

Yep... I'm thinking I will leave alot on the table... If the house is worth 500K now and it's worth 2 million in 20 years...yep that's a big chunk of change.

[Weis02]

Mike - you see the point - as for what my house will be worth in 20 years, I can't see it hitting one million, somethings gotta give but as I said in another post, my crystal ball is out for repair and to date, they can't seem to get the darn thing fixed

[Miker2069]

Originally Posted by WenIs02

Mike - you see the point - as for what my house will be worth in 20 years, I can't see it hitting one million, somethings gotta give but as I said in another post, my crystal ball is out for repair and to date, they can't seem to get the darn thing fixed

My crystal ball was retired after it predicted Dan Quayle as the next President