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Old 07-21-2006, 11:09 PM
 
1,868 posts, read 5,229,273 times
Reputation: 525

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Quote:
Originally Posted by connie
You've raised some good points. I think my perspective is a little narrower - I don't worry about trusting my realtor because I'm capable of figuring out the truth myself. But probably lots of people get led the wrong way ... I live in an area where homes still are appreciating with no foreclosures. But people who make $40K a year buying $500K homes?? -of course that can't fly. And, of course, lawyers are somewhat impervious to the economy - litigation is alive and well and salaries are solid.

I don't know what to think of your position overall. On the one hand, our economy has some solid fundamentals and, in the past, Americans have deflected "doomsday" predictions about the economy. Some people think we are simply living in a new paradigm with the way prices are, i.e. cars used to cost $5K but now they are $20K and that's just the way it is and we're never going back. But on the other hand, if wages can't keep up, and too many people have those lower wages, then prices must come down. I'm honestly confused by the fact that the housing market in Fresno is down 20%, but prices went up 8% from one year ago. The news called it a "conundrum" the other day and even the experts are reserving judgment. I think these next few years will be very interesting. Honestly, one of the reasons we are moving is because it feels like Cal has spiraled out of control. We can afford it, but only by both working at stressful jobs that we don't like. Moving to another area that is nicer, and has much cheaper housing, seems like the ticket. More money in the bank, more money to enjoy life, bigger retirement fund etc. - just seems more responsible and relaxing than staying here. We'll see ...

One final note - you write that you "don't mean to come off like I think people are stupid." I believe that you have strong opinions and, frankly, I personally find most of them well considered and researched. But for fun I reviewed some of your posts. You might want to do the same, just for a little "come to Jesus" meeting with yourself. LOL It's just my opinion, but comments like "you've got to be mentally challenged to buy in Cali," "finally, someone with a brain," "that's the silliest thing I've ever heard," "moo" about overweight people in Texas, "ever heard of a housing bubble?," correcting someone's spelling (especially when yours is not perfect) -- may not be the most effective way to make your point. I realize some of these quotes are out of context, but not entirely and you meant it as it's quoted. Unless you are making millions, or the Federal Reserve has you on speeddial, you might want to take it down a notch. Just my opinion .... At the end of the day, we're all just people limited by our own experiences trying to guess the future! And who knows what that will bring?

Connie
I came on here to see what other's were saying about present conditions. I find it interesting that the very people who are upset by my posts are the same people who are having difficulty selling their homes. Sometimes I interject my own brand of humor. While misunderstood, my intentions are good. I don't claim to be an expert, but because my husband has been involved in the finance industry for 25 years I tend to hold his opinion in high regard. He has worked for international banks and much of the information can be attributed to high ranking bank officials who are through the looking glass and are not being fed propaganda or looking at the world through rose colored glasses.
I respect your reason for wanting to leave California. It is the very reason we left San Diego. I did not have a home to sell however. We were getting ready to buy our first home and decided not to do it in Cali.

Fresno: 20% vs. 8% could be that more homes have come onto the market and havent sold yet.

I hope you and your husband get out of Cali soon so you can enjoy that lifestyle you mentioned. It worked for my family.

Thanks for reading my posts.
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Old 07-21-2006, 11:12 PM
 
1,868 posts, read 5,229,273 times
Reputation: 525
Quote:
Originally Posted by RedNC
Your 80% figure is high, but even if it was correct there were only 45k homes sold in 2005. Factoring in refinance loans there aren’t enough of these types of loans to create the catastrophic collapse you are predicting. There are millions of homes in CA that are either owned out right or the owners have not reified or sold in the last 6 years.
Even the university’s so called “economist” aren’t predicting the kind of catastrophe you are predicting.

I know a number of people that went for the interest only loans, not because they couldn’t afford the 30 year fixed, but because they could pay the same payment as before, but the extra went to principal, instead of interest. Now they have already refinanced to fixed loans. As soon as the fed “gets their heads out” they will probably refi again to an interest only loan.

At this time your apocalyptic outlook is extremely premature. Even in the 90’s when there were 750k high paying aerospace jobs lost the housing market corrected, but not by nearly the correction you are predicting.
80% is fact. Would you like an article link? . This is a completely different dynamic than the 90's .

Last edited by shannon94; 07-21-2006 at 11:18 PM..
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Old 07-21-2006, 11:21 PM
 
1,126 posts, read 3,569,998 times
Reputation: 413
Quote:
Originally Posted by shannon94
80% is fact. Would you like an article link? . This is a completely different dynamic than the 90's .
I know a hand full of people in CA, AZ, and NV who have re-fi their house and taken money out. I think the figures come in low because "Men" don't like to say, "how is the weather? I just re-fi to get my wife her car and now have 30yr to pay it back instead of 5yrs". Thus people think that not a lot of people do this. This is just my experience.
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Old 07-21-2006, 11:31 PM
 
2,301 posts, read 1,901,459 times
Reputation: 317
Quote:
Originally Posted by connie
Yup, I think so too. One other factor - many Californians are looking at other areas of the country and thinking "hey, wait a minute. That town in Colorado, New Hampshire, Utah, NC etc is actually NICER than where I live." Not only is it cheaper, but it's actually nicer. Maybe not if you're from southern Cal or the Bay Area, but much of California is just "regular." It's one thing to live in a cheap regular town, it's another thing to live in a crazy expensive regular town. When we visited Charlotte, we couldn't believe how much nicer it was than where we lived! Not just less expensive, but prettier and more exciting.

Agree 100% with this.
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Old 07-21-2006, 11:31 PM
 
2,301 posts, read 1,901,459 times
Reputation: 317
Quote:
Originally Posted by TornadoAlley
I know a hand full of people in CA, AZ, and NV who have re-fi their house and taken money out. I think the figures come in low because "Men" don't like to say, "how is the weather? I just re-fi to get my wife her car and now have 30yr to pay it back instead of 5yrs". Thus people think that not a lot of people do this. This is just my experience.

You know people in Az?
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Old 07-21-2006, 11:32 PM
 
2,301 posts, read 1,901,459 times
Reputation: 317
Quote:
Originally Posted by RedNC
Well said. I agree, I think she is just angry that she sold on the first media reports of a housing bubble, and lost out on the appreciation in the las 7 years.

She watches too much CNN.
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Old 07-21-2006, 11:49 PM
 
1,735 posts, read 4,230,346 times
Reputation: 1437
Quote:
Originally Posted by shannon94
80% is fact. Would you like an article link? . This is a completely different dynamic than the 90's .
Are you saying 80% of homeowners in CA have adjustable loans?
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Old 07-21-2006, 11:49 PM
 
1,868 posts, read 5,229,273 times
Reputation: 525
Quote:
Originally Posted by a1m1700
She watches too much CNN.
I take it your a FOX viewer. Have my own opinion thanks.
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Old 07-21-2006, 11:51 PM
 
1,126 posts, read 3,569,998 times
Reputation: 413
Quote:
Originally Posted by RedNC
Are you saying 80% of homeowners in CA have adjustable loans?
I agree with you, that's too high. I would guess 33% if you asked me
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Old 07-21-2006, 11:54 PM
 
164 posts, read 318,923 times
Reputation: 79
Quote:
Originally Posted by shannon94
I came on here to see what other's were saying about present conditions. I find it interesting that the very people who are upset by my posts are the same people who are having difficulty selling their homes. Sometimes I interject my own brand of humor. While misunderstood, my intentions are good. I don't claim to be an expert, but because my husband has been involved in the finance industry for 25 years I tend to hold his opinion in high regard. He has worked for international banks and much of the information can be attributed to high ranking bank officials who are through the looking glass and are not being fed propaganda or looking at the world through rose colored glasses.
I respect your reason for wanting to leave California. It is the very reason we left San Diego. I did not have a home to sell however. We were getting ready to buy our first home and decided not to do it in Cali.

Fresno: 20% vs. 8% could be that more homes have come onto the market and havent sold yet.

I hope you and your husband get out of Cali soon so you can enjoy that lifestyle you mentioned. It worked for my family.

Thanks for reading my posts.

Thanks for your good wishes. We are really excited about this new chapter!!

I know what you mean about getting the "inside scoop" from people in finance. It really is helpful. My brother is a financial analyst in the Bay Area and his insight has been invaluable. From some of his research, we bought homes and investment property back in the late 1990s and early 2000s and rode that equity wave! We would have sold last year, but family issues made it impossible. Now we are ready and it's a good time. My kids go to private school and this is a good time to switch before my second youngest starts kindergarten. Selling has been frustrating but in the big picture California has done us right. Besides, now we have time to learn those southern accents!! I have to keep telling my oldest, "no, that's a British accent. You're off by a continent."
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