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quote from Red: You can connect these dots, but you can’t do simple research on people you are quoting.
As for your husband dealing with these people, I bet he also deals with people that aren’t taking out ARM. Or does he specialize in these ARM’s. If he was a bartender, would he dealing with people that drink? Would he think all people are drunks, or just some.
You didn't supply the people's names you were quoting. And I DID quote an economist. My husband is a little "higher rank" than a "loan officer".( He is cracking up right now.) At any rate ....I was trying to apply a little humor to my last post....guess you didnt get it. TornadoAlley even got it. By the way I agree with alot of points you make...I just dont think California is going to be bubble free like you. And you are absolutely right about my peer group trying to keep up with the Jones's. Some of my friends have made some really bad decisions and a couple of them are about bankrupt. My husband keeps telling me to get the guest room ready! Say what you will...those ARM's that are coming due in 2007 are going to be hurting quite a few people. I guess we will just have to wait and see how many of that 44k number bring their payments current. By the way....do you own any property in California? Not being sarcastic....just wondering?
Below are two quotes. If you read them you will see there are peoples names, but you do have to read all of it.
“Despite that, the foreclosure rate -- currently less than 1 percent of all loans -- isn't expected to change much in 2006, says Alexis McGee, president of listings Web site [mod cut].”
“What would push more homeowners over the brink? Hard economic times have always been a catalyst, says Doug Duncan, chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association. For example, in states that have recently lost industrial jobs, such as Ohio and Michigan, foreclosures rose significantly in 2005. So if the national economy sours this year, expect a big jump in foreclosures in 2007.”
Yes I do own property in CA, bought current home in 92. Was upside down within one year and stayed that way until 97. Some people panicked and bailed out, I didn’t because I bought the home to live in not make money on.
quote from Red NC : Yes I do own property in CA, bought current home in 92. Was upside down within one year and stayed that way until 97. Some people panicked and bailed out, I didn’t because I bought the home to live in not make money on.
At first I thought you lived in NC.....now it all makes since why your as emotional as me about the state of California...but for different reasons of course. Hope you didn't take too many equity loans out!! lol just kidding. I agree a home is suppose to be just that...your home....not what it's turned into for some.....Corvettes....trips to Paris.....vacation homes etc. What part of Cali do you live in?
quote from Red NC : Yes I do own property in CA, bought current home in 92. Was upside down within one year and stayed that way until 97. Some people panicked and bailed out, I didn’t because I bought the home to live in not make money on.
At first I thought you lived in NC.....now it all makes since why your as emotional as me about the state of California...but for different reasons of course. Hope you didn't take too many equity loans out!! lol just kidding. I agree a home is suppose to be just that...your home....not what it's turned into for some.....Corvettes....trips to Paris.....vacation homes etc. What part of Cali do you live in?
I do have a classic Corvette and Camaro, paid cash for both and they are worth a bunch more than I paid for them now.
Sorry, Paris is not a location I will ever be interested in going to.
What’s wrong with vacation homes? They can appreciate too.
North Orange County.
If you go to ]link removed[ you will find most of the homes in my zipcode are in foreclosure or pre-foreclosure. The rest are abandoned with the weeds growing 5 feet tall. That is the rich ones have weeds the rest are just dirt. Just kidding....
Sorry, he's not my friend. I was just using your website foreclosures.com and taking his quote from the website.
So now you don't trust someones opinion on foreclosure, that works in the field? OH brother. Ok forget about it all...what year is your corvette? I'd like to get my hands on a 57...red and white!!
So now you don't trust someones opinion on foreclosure, that works in the field? OH brother. Ok forget about it all...what year is your corvette? I'd like to get my hands on a 57...red and white!!
Where in that reply did I indicate trust one way or another?
If you think real estate is expensive, price out a 57 Corvette.
Where in that reply did I indicate trust one way or another?
If you think real estate is expensive, price out a 57 Corvette.
Well....your the one that quoted Alexis Mcgee.....in your post she mentioned nothing about California...but the one I found mentioned exactly what I've been saying about foreclosures and exotic mortgages... and you've been fighting me tooth and nail on it. Did you read it?.......... Isn't this fun? lol Yeah ...hubby says I can't have 57 corvette.....we'll see.
Well....your the one that quoted Alexis Mcgee.....in your post she mentioned nothing about California...but the one I found mentioned exactly what I've been saying about foreclosures and exotic mortgages... and you've been fighting me tooth and nail on it. Did you read it?.......... Isn't this fun? lol Yeah ...hubby says I can't have 57 corvette.....we'll see.
Since that was released on Monday and my post was on Sunday I would have to be able to read minds to have that information.
I haven't been fighting you as indicated, just pointing out other points of view.
I also said the following in this thread, "I do think we are in for an adjustment, but I doubt it will be anything more than no appreciation for this year and modest 2-3% a year for a couple of years."
and this
"Home sales in CA have definitely slowed, but they are still selling. The prices are adjusting, and a home that is priced 5 to 7% below 2005 prices are selling."
and this
"Another thing about the shaky loans. That is a very small percentage of homeowners in CA. Some things to look out for are the CA homeowners that used their equity to buy investment rental homes in LV, AZ, TX, etc. If they were unable to keep up their payments on their rental home, which one do you think they would sell first?"
and this
"I know a number of people that went for the interest only loans, not because they couldn’t afford the 30 year fixed, but because they could pay the same payment as before, but the extra went to principal, instead of interest. Now they have already refinanced to fixed loans. As soon as the fed “gets their heads out” they will probably refi again to an interest only loan."
"At this time your apocalyptic outlook is extremely premature. Even in the 90’s when there were 750k high paying aerospace jobs lost the housing market corrected, but not by nearly the correction you are predicting."
and this
"This is what the Mortgage Bankers Association says about home loans in America.
35% of owners own their home outright.
50% have fixed rate loans, many refinancing to lower rates with fewer years.
15% have adjustable rate/ interest – 8% of those being high wealth income earners.
That leaves you with 7% of all mortgages are rate sensitive.
There is $7.3 trillion in mortgage debt, $83 billion are adjustable."
and this
"I looked at the data he listed and he seemed to come to the conclusion that single family homes have leveled off and will remain flat. As he said “Neither I nor anyone else can predict exactly how the market will behave in the future.”
This is what Chapman University is predicting “Housing prices, which as recently as 2004 soared 27.4 percent, are expected to be flat in 2006, then drop 5.9 percent in 2007.”
This is from the UCLA Anderson Forecast “We do not predict a recession, nor do we predict a substantial decline in average nominal home prices,” Ratcliff says. “This forecast it based on two arguments. There is not enough vulnerability in the usual sources of employment loss to create a recession, and the historical record suggests that average home prices do not usually fall without this kind of job loss.”
As for the 57 I know where you can get a rolling chassis for @$35k
Yes my perpetual state of bankruptcy was a little over the top...I was just trying to make a point....my sense of humor kicking in...
Your right I would have loved to have got in say 99 and sold last year!! We chose to have one income though until my daughter started school so it wasn't going to happen. Raising my child myself was more important than money...so we moved to Texas as hard as it was. Sure I could have done the ARM thing...but no thanks. I'll have my house payed off in 7 years in Texas. But now I'm living the financial lifestyle my friends in San Diego wish they were. You won't regret moving.....trust me. We found the best part about moving is that we can vacation in Cali several times a year . So far every time we've gone back though we end up paying for dinner because our friends are so strapped to their house payment and have no room left on their credit cards. I'm worried about some of them. I guess we will all just wait and see what happens to places like San Diego.
One more interesting thing.....if you go to uhaul and say ....you are going to move to Charlotte from San Diego...it will cost you $4000+ to leave San Diego but going the other way it will only cost you $900+. Why? Because more people are leaving California than moving in. Gee I wonder why? lol
Sorry for the late response - no power here. It's okay, air conditioning is overrated.
Just read the article you PM'd me about from Will Carless. I think it substantiates my point - some real problems with housing (particularly in SD), but there's no reason at this juncture to predict a housing bust or "doom and gloom" in the RE market. In my opinion, RedNC's latest post pretty accurately describes the Cal housing market. And as the Carless article notes, the economy is fairly solid, though not spectacular, and we should ride this out okay. The Carless article even talks about how the housing correction will hit "one particular group of people" - those with creative financing. While those folks have been on the increase in past few years, all home owners are in the equation when it comes to predicting the housing market, and most people have fixed loans etc.
As I've said, I think many of your points are valid, I just think they are overstated and that the impact of these problems on a statewide level will be less than you suggest. In my opinion, many of your points are better taken in the context of retirement rather than housing. Retirement is such a personal, individual thing. Regardless of the economy, housing, unemployment etc., if you don't plan properly for retirement that's a problem. The economy could be great, with housing appreciating at a nice 8%, but if you've spent the last 30 years robbing Peter to pay Paul, there will be trouble. In that regard, an interest-only loan could be disappointing later in life when you still have to pay off principal and you'd rather be retiring. (Not to mention all the extra interest you paid) A 50-year mortgage?? Does the post office set up mail boxes in the cemetery so that people can make their monthly payments from the grave?? Geez, I thought one of the perks of being dead is that no one "hassles" you for money!
I do appreciate your encouragement re our move. It's nice to hear that I "won't regret it." I don't get that alot from people out here ....
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