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Old 09-25-2009, 06:24 PM
 
Location: Raleigh
72 posts, read 173,223 times
Reputation: 29

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So, that's a hefty title, and you probably expect to see some whiz bang economic reports/forecasts or self titled expert from the WSJ quoted, sorry, it's just me.

I base this on the fortunate slow pace of growth the South has typically held behind the other regions keeping labor costs and taxes reasonable. Throw in the obvious achievements that state legislature and chambers of commerce throughout the South have been working towards the last 20 years, building infrastructure, making investment in human capitol and education, incentives.

The next 25 years are going to see some incredible growth, yes it's already been happening but the speed limit is about to really go up, the sentiment to do business in the South is skyrocketing.

Most of the South is still relatively un-prepared for new industry and tech, luckily the Triangle is not, this gives the Triangle NC region a chance to win ANY business that comes looking for better opportunity.

Yea sure, we'll be old and dirty too one day, congested as hell with people, brown concrete, and dilapidated public works, until finally collapsing as a "silicone rust bucket", but that is at least 60 years away. In the interim, we can make some money as businesses transition to the last real onshore opportunity before sending everything to the next cheapest continent.
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Old 09-26-2009, 08:25 AM
 
22,769 posts, read 26,252,516 times
Reputation: 14558
I'm not clear on what you're talking about. There are several assumptions and claims you make that I do not agree with:

-The south hasn't seen slow growth; it has grown faster than the rest of the U.S. for the past 40 years, especially NC.

-A bubble is a bad thing; it is an unsustainable rise in asset prices. It often pops and leaves deflation in its wake. What assets do you expect to bubble up?

-Your claim that "most of the south is unprepared for tech" is not something that makes any sense to me.

-Your claim that we've had "obvious achievements building infrastructure" is also dubious. Transportation networks are not keeping pace with population growth, across the south.

-Your 60-year prediction is also dubious. Most "tech" is highly dependent upon human capital, not likely to turn into a silicone [sic] rust bucket. Silicone is what fake breasts are made of, btw, Silicon is what we use for microprocessors.

Last edited by le roi; 09-26-2009 at 08:50 AM..
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Old 09-26-2009, 09:36 AM
 
16,300 posts, read 24,990,656 times
Reputation: 8282
The positive stuff about housing seems to get a lot of press and praise and run up the flag pole frequently.

How come the very steady and rising component seems to be ignored or swept under the rug? That fact that foreclosures continue to increase at a steady rate.
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Old 09-26-2009, 08:23 PM
 
Location: North Carolina
2,657 posts, read 7,193,136 times
Reputation: 4297
Quote:
Originally Posted by rubber_factory View Post

-Your claim that "most of the south is unprepared for tech" is not something that makes any sense to me.
Really. I guess the OP hasn't read about what's going on in Kannapolis. They sure don't make sheets and towels there anymore.

North Carolina Research Campus Home
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Old 09-27-2009, 05:58 PM
 
Location: Raleigh
72 posts, read 173,223 times
Reputation: 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by rubber_factory View Post

-The south hasn't seen slow growth; it has grown faster than the rest of the U.S. for the past 40 years, especially NC.
Historically it did and has, 40 years, more like 100 years population shifting South and West.


Quote:
Originally Posted by rubber_factory View Post

-Your claim that "most of the south is unprepared for tech" is not something that makes any sense to me.
Pockets of the south, but in general still a bit hung over from the textiles and small farming busts.

Quote:
Transportation networks are not keeping pace with population growth, across the south.
I think only in parts of Europe or M.E. does that ever happen.

Quote:
A bubble is a bad thing; it is an unsustainable rise in asset prices. It often pops and leaves deflation in its wake.
Show me the everlasting gobstopper, or call it a cycle if you prefer.

Quote:
Silicone is what fake breasts are made of, btw, Silicon is what we use for microprocessors.
I must have breasts on the mind.
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Old 09-28-2009, 08:13 AM
 
22,769 posts, read 26,252,516 times
Reputation: 14558
Quote:
Originally Posted by Xdeth View Post
Historically it did and has, 40 years, more like 100 years population shifting South and West.

Pockets of the south, but in general still a bit hung over from the textiles and small farming busts.

I think only in parts of Europe or M.E. does that ever happen.
^These comments contradict your original post.

Quote:
Show me the everlasting gobstopper, or call it a cycle if you prefer.
^This one is gibberish.

Looking at your profile, you are an NC State trained engineer - you are making them look bad!
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Old 09-28-2009, 10:57 AM
 
Location: Raleigh
72 posts, read 173,223 times
Reputation: 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by rubber_factory View Post

Looking at your profile, you are an NC State trained engineer - you are making them look bad!

And I think you are a troll, but I still answered your challenges as accurately and politely as I could given the forum and context of an internet discussion.

If your looking for my masters thesis, you'll have to meet me directly.
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Old 09-28-2009, 02:06 PM
 
Location: Raleigh
72 posts, read 173,223 times
Reputation: 29
Quote:
Show me the everlasting gobstopper, or call it a cycle if you prefer.
^This one is gibberish.
It's gibberish to you, you didn't make the imaginaitive or "fun" leap I attempted from an "everlasting gobstopper" (non existent pop cultural reference) to the (now non existent) sustained economic cycles of the 20th century. Yes I read your 200 level econ defintion of a bubble, which BTW is still better then no bubble, or zero volitivity or growth IMHO.

And then you ask which assets to I expect to bubble? Did you even read the post title, The "South" is the next bubble, have you bought any "South" on etrade or in the grocery store? Again you have to make an imaginative leap with the terminology and purpose of my post, shorter perodicity and increased magnitude as it relates to the MANY assests tied to the region.

I could tackle each instance of your feinged protests in depth, only to find another even more pedantic reply or disagreement, but that is not why you posted. Get after some speeling isseus or my use of your instead of you're, I been down the road before.

You are just asking for what I'm starting to give you now, to turn this into a personal sandbox. NCSU engineer, yup, got an issue with that too, or why bring it up.

Last edited by Xdeth; 09-28-2009 at 02:16 PM..
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Old 09-28-2009, 04:10 PM
 
22,769 posts, read 26,252,516 times
Reputation: 14558
Quote:
Originally Posted by Xdeth View Post
It's gibberish to you, you didn't make the imaginaitive or "fun" leap I attempted from an "everlasting gobstopper" (non existent pop cultural reference) to the (now non existent) sustained economic cycles of the 20th century.
I lied. I don't think it was gibberish. I thought it was a vague metaphor to gloss over some important concept, so you could move on to your next point.

Quote:
Yes I read your 200 level econ defintion of a bubble, which BTW is still better then no bubble, or zero volitivity or growth IMHO.

And then you ask which assets to I expect to bubble? Did you even read the post title, The "South" is the next bubble, have you bought any "South" on etrade or in the grocery store? Again you have to make an imaginative leap with the terminology and purpose of my post, shorter perodicity and increased magnitude as it relates to the MANY assests tied to the region.
I'm Joe Sixpack. I don't think I even took 200-level econ. However I do know that malinvestment is much worse than stagnation.

I don't know about these "imaginative leaps", but real estate is the only asset I know of that has the sort of localized price bubbles you described above. If you think North Carolina is headed for a real estate bubble soon, well, good luck with that prediction.

Quote:
I could tackle each instance of your feinged protests in depth, only to find another even more pedantic reply or disagreement, but that is not why you posted.
You don't need to. This is not proving to be fruitful.
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Old 09-28-2009, 09:21 PM
 
Location: Raleigh
72 posts, read 173,223 times
Reputation: 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by rubber_factory View Post
I lied. I don't think it was gibberish. I thought it was a vague metaphor to gloss over some important concept, so you could move on to your next point.

I'm Joe Sixpack. I don't think I even took 200-level econ. However I do know that malinvestment is much worse than stagnation.
Ok, so you got it but didn't feel it was really informative. It's meant to be glib, maybe my post is vague however.

What drill down can I offer, what's the informative concept... My feeling is that the new economy, the global economy, is a bubble economy, and will probably bubble more with continued globalization. Companies are operating more efficiently at shuffling resources and capitol around, a Government's activities can set the table for a bubble purposefully or accidentally, and the markets move money in and out of sectors much faster then ever before while also facilitating/encouraging bubbles. Bubbles do not necessarily return markets to bottoms below where the bubble started, and money gets generated on both the up and down. There is also quite a bit of "out of the box" bubble dividends thought out there, Daniel Gross "Why bubbles are great for the economy".

I'm asking what's the "everlasting.." as in, what do you think is the longer term trend? Or, maybe consider calling it a cycle and challenge what's assumed to be negative about it in every case, or avoidable for that matter.

SSRN-Speculative Bubbles in the S&P 500: Was the Tech Bubble Confined to the Tech Sector? by Chris Brooks, Apostolos Katsaris
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