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Old 07-27-2006, 12:09 AM
 
Location: MI
333 posts, read 1,095,645 times
Reputation: 168

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Just out of curiousity I did some research tonight on where the "more liberal" areas are (i.e. in theory democrats live) and how the mix was, and found a great site on CNN which has this data by county for 2004 election (Bush/Kerry)

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pag...tates/NC/P/00/

This is not a political post, just looking at some statistics to gauge how North Carolina's population mix by county votes. It might help "out of towners" who are worried about overly conservative areas and while political conservatism is not the same as say cultural or religious culturalism it might be an interesting thing to look at

I found some interesting data, first of all I am in Michigan and this was a close Kerry state and a swing state there is not conservative in the "highly populated" areas but I looked at 2 of the 3 biggest counties and both were basically 50/50 in the election which I didn't realize.... it was very close even here in a swing state.

North Carolina went 56% Bush/44% Kerry so overall more conservative of a state. For comparison I pulled up some other states which I thought would be more conservative... South Carolina was 58/41 Bush, Alabama 63/37 Bush, Tennessee 57/43 Bush, Georgia 58/41. So NC is the "least' conservative in the local southern states. (exluding Virginia) Virginia was 54/46 Bush so not far off really.

Now for the county data... there were actually a lot of counties Kerry won, or it was a split... I consider a split anything 50/50, 51/49, 52/48, 53/47.

The MOST liberal (or at least MOST democratic) counties were:
Anson 59% Kerry
Bertie 62% Kerry
Durham 68% Kerry (college town no surprise)
Edgecombe 61% Kerry
Halifax 59% Kerry
Hertford 63% Kerry
Northampton 64% Kerry
Orange 67% Kerry
Warren 65% Kerry

Without knowing much about NC, most of these are small counties, with Halifax and Edgecombe (20K voters each) being decent sized and Orange being the 2nd biggest (60K voters) and Durham the largest (110K voters total)

There are another 25 counties that fell into the 50/50 range, I will list the biggest (I don't know where these are yet or what cities are inside most of them but will look at that next just since I am curious i.e. are any of them coastal etc)
Buncombe 50/49% Bush (105K voters)
Cumberland 52/48% Bush (95K voters)
Forsyth 54/46% Bush (140K voters)
Guilford 50/49% Kerry (200K voters)
Mecklenburg (where Charlotte is) 52/48% Kerry (320K voters)
Wake (Raleigh) 51/49% Bush (350K voters)

So in the "big counties" it was basically split among the 2, and very close mix of Democrats and Republicans or people voting along those lines.

Where Bush won, and won big was a lot of the 40-60K size (voting size, not size of the counties) counties where he won 65/35% or 70/30% (I assume these are more 'rural areas' or where small/mid sized towns are)
Examples: Almance, Brunswick, Cabarrus, Caldwell, Catawba, Craven, Davidson, Gaston, Henderson, Iredell, Johnston, Randolph, Rockingham, Rowan, Union, Wayne

(Yes I like statistics as you see)

Anyhow, found it interesting - the biggest 7 counties, excluding Durham which is super heavy Democrat, are essentially a wash and could go either way. So at least politically, there is a good mix there.

 
Old 07-27-2006, 01:03 AM
 
Location: NC
1,250 posts, read 2,311,211 times
Reputation: 584
Wow a democrat who didnt say Bush stole the elections
 
Old 07-27-2006, 04:53 AM
 
180 posts, read 678,994 times
Reputation: 64
When I move out of this Liberal state to Wake county, I will be making that 51/49 Romney win a little less closer.
 
Old 07-27-2006, 07:17 AM
 
1,531 posts, read 6,835,040 times
Reputation: 487
I dunno if those counties are the most liberal necessarily...they're just the most Democratic. With the exception of Orange & Durham, most of those listed are not that liberal and probably are statistically heavily democratic due to having high non-white populations. That's just a fact in the south.

Wake, Guilford, Forsyth, Cumberland, Mecklenburg and Buncombe are probably hard to figure....the central city of each of those (Raleigh, Greensboro, WinstonSalem, Fayetteville, Charlotte, Asheville, respectively) will be decently high Democrat concentrations while the suburban/rural parts are the Republican concentrations. Thus the county average comes out half & half.
Hard to lumb urban and nonurban in one and get accuracy.
 
Old 07-27-2006, 08:28 AM
 
5,265 posts, read 14,875,993 times
Reputation: 4238
Almsot all of those counties you listed as going to Kerry are majority black counties..... so it has more to do with being "democratic" (almost all blacks vote democrat), than really being "Liberal". The exception would be Orange County, with Chapel Hill-Carborro there, no surpise it went "blue"
 
Old 07-27-2006, 08:35 AM
 
2,301 posts, read 1,892,741 times
Reputation: 317
Quote:
Originally Posted by thisguy
Just out of curiousity I did some research tonight on where the "more liberal" areas are (i.e. in theory democrats live) and how the mix was, and found a great site on CNN which has this data by county for 2004 election (Bush/Kerry)

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pag...tates/NC/P/00/

This is not a political post, just looking at some statistics to gauge how North Carolina's population mix by county votes. It might help "out of towners" who are worried about overly conservative areas and while political conservatism is not the same as say cultural or religious culturalism it might be an interesting thing to look at

I found some interesting data, first of all I am in Michigan and this was a close Kerry state and a swing state there is not conservative in the "highly populated" areas but I looked at 2 of the 3 biggest counties and both were basically 50/50 in the election which I didn't realize.... it was very close even here in a swing state.

North Carolina went 56% Bush/44% Kerry so overall more conservative of a state. For comparison I pulled up some other states which I thought would be more conservative... South Carolina was 58/41 Bush, Alabama 63/37 Bush, Tennessee 57/43 Bush, Georgia 58/41. So NC is the "least' conservative in the local southern states. (exluding Virginia) Virginia was 54/46 Bush so not far off really.

Now for the county data... there were actually a lot of counties Kerry won, or it was a split... I consider a split anything 50/50, 51/49, 52/48, 53/47.

The MOST liberal (or at least MOST democratic) counties were:
Anson 59% Kerry
Bertie 62% Kerry
Durham 68% Kerry (college town no surprise)
Edgecombe 61% Kerry
Halifax 59% Kerry
Hertford 63% Kerry
Northampton 64% Kerry
Orange 67% Kerry
Warren 65% Kerry

Without knowing much about NC, most of these are small counties, with Halifax and Edgecombe (20K voters each) being decent sized and Orange being the 2nd biggest (60K voters) and Durham the largest (110K voters total)

There are another 25 counties that fell into the 50/50 range, I will list the biggest (I don't know where these are yet or what cities are inside most of them but will look at that next just since I am curious i.e. are any of them coastal etc)
Buncombe 50/49% Bush (105K voters)
Cumberland 52/48% Bush (95K voters)
Forsyth 54/46% Bush (140K voters)
Guilford 50/49% Kerry (200K voters)
Mecklenburg (where Charlotte is) 52/48% Kerry (320K voters)
Wake (Raleigh) 51/49% Bush (350K voters)

So in the "big counties" it was basically split among the 2, and very close mix of Democrats and Republicans or people voting along those lines.

Where Bush won, and won big was a lot of the 40-60K size (voting size, not size of the counties) counties where he won 65/35% or 70/30% (I assume these are more 'rural areas' or where small/mid sized towns are)
Examples: Almance, Brunswick, Cabarrus, Caldwell, Catawba, Craven, Davidson, Gaston, Henderson, Iredell, Johnston, Randolph, Rockingham, Rowan, Union, Wayne

(Yes I like statistics as you see)

Anyhow, found it interesting - the biggest 7 counties, excluding Durham which is super heavy Democrat, are essentially a wash and could go either way. So at least politically, there is a good mix there.

Cabarrus County hmmmm guess I'm headed in the right direction.

Thanks for the stats
 
Old 07-27-2006, 09:58 AM
 
Location: MI
333 posts, read 1,095,645 times
Reputation: 168
Default Thanks for the info

Quote:
Originally Posted by i'minformed
Almsot all of those counties you listed as going to Kerry are majority black counties..... so it has more to do with being "democratic" (almost all blacks vote democrat), than really being "Liberal". The exception would be Orange County, with Chapel Hill-Carborro there, no surpise it went "blue"
For the first reply back to my post, I am not Democrat in fact I thought both candidates were quite poor in 04. Maybe a McCain vs Gore in 08 will be interesting and both would be more interesting and rise more passion.

As for the comment above, I can see that making sense. In Michigan we have 3 huge counties - 1 that is basically "Detroit" and it went 70% Kerry and heavy African American. The other 2 are mixes of all types of people, rich areas, middle class area, etc and went 50/50.

After I posted I went to look at the county map and I saw most of the "liberal" (or at least Democratic) bigger counties aside from Durham and Orange were in Northeast part of the state, so for whatever reason I assume that portion is heavily "non-white" as we say here. I also have a link showing population growth from 2000 census to 2005, and those were also the same counties that showed heavily population losses (Northeast Carolina) Orange County also showed population loss but the counties ringing Charlotte, Triangle, and Asheville showed the strongest population growth (obviously)

Like Raleigh Bob said, you can't read everything into the statistics and some of these counties are quite huge (Wake/Mecklenberg) so you can't see the urban core vs suburbia stasticis on the page I found, but it was just an interesting thing to look at.

As I noted in the state to state competition, of the southeast southern states (excluding FL which is obviously a huge transplant state) NC is the closest to being a 'battleground' state with 56/44. I assume based on the quantity of people moving from NY/NJ (and even CA) I read on these boards, it will push it even further in that direction at least in the big urban areas. Interesting dichotomy.
 
Old 07-27-2006, 10:33 AM
 
1,735 posts, read 4,222,897 times
Reputation: 1437
Quote:
Originally Posted by thisguy
For the first reply back to my post, I am not Democrat in fact I thought both candidates were quite poor in 04. Maybe a McCain vs Gore in 08 will be interesting and both would be more interesting and rise more passion.
Why is it that no one ever admits to being a Democrat? I've never seen a Republican post something like this.
Then you list two liberals who you think would be interesting to watch run against each other.
 
Old 07-27-2006, 10:53 AM
 
2,301 posts, read 1,892,741 times
Reputation: 317
Quote:
Originally Posted by RedNC
Why is it that no one ever admits to being a Democrat? I've never seen a Republican post something like this.
Then you list two liberals who you think would be interesting to watch run against each other.
Wow Red! taking the words out of my mouth again.

Those two running against eachother. Silverwing please put the little laughing guy on this one too.
 
Old 07-27-2006, 11:07 AM
 
Location: MI
333 posts, read 1,095,645 times
Reputation: 168
Quote:
Originally Posted by RedNC
Why is it that no one ever admits to being a Democrat? I've never seen a Republican post something like this.
Then you list two liberals who you think would be interesting to watch run against each other.
Is McCain liberal? I guess within the Republican party nowadays he is?!

I watch a lot of history and political shows and many political commentators say in todays day and age, Reagan, Nixon, and basically any Republican president from 1980 backwards would be considered "liberal". The reality is the party has swung as a whole very heavily to the right in the past 15 years. So to call McCain a liberal... maybe in this day and age. Lincoln the most beloved president and Republican would be a Democrat in today's political culture. He was open minded and had advisors he listened to and I admire that. Not like the current administration.

To the independent like me, McCain is pretty middle of the road and he is genuine (as genuine as a politican can be) - hence he is interesting to me. He listens to people on both sides of the aisle and he actually works on things that matter such as political contribution reform, etc. Gore I think has a lot of vision, and is very intelligent. He was talking about Global Warning 20 years before others were... I like that sort of vision even if I don't like all policies or political views he has, or McCain has. Again not a political post - I think those 2 would be interesting in debate and to hear what they think

I didn't mention Hillary you notice She is a true politican and will tell you what you want to hear...hence I think the 2 candidates above (who like all politicans sway somewhat in the wind) are more genuine and hence more interesting. I know others only want people who conform 100% to their beliefs... I'd rather have a lot of intelligence and openness to listening to good ideas from both parties at the top. But thats what makes this a country - we all have different opinions
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