Is the party over...ending soon? (Minot, Dickinson: mineral rights, transporting, hotel)

[flyingcat2k]

Originally Posted by ElkHunter

Right now they are fracking in North Dakota. Why haven't they done it before? Because the prices wouldn't support fracking. Fracking is expensive. Prices are up so fracking is worth it. Open up too many wells, pump too much oil, prices of oil start to decline and then fracking is not cost effective. Pretty easy to see what will happen then.

Actually, they really didn't know that fracking the Bakken would work. It really was a combination of onshore horizontal drilling (drill strings in the Bakken used to be vertical) and improved fracking technology to recover the oil.

The Bakken is actually a large but shallow formation. In most places it is only 100 to 150' tall. So horizontal drilling allows the oil rig to place the drill bit right in the formation rather than guessing where a thicker spot is in the formation and drilling a vertical well there. The formation is also very hard (ie. shale) compared to other oil deposits (ie. limestone, sandstone) so it needs to be it with something to break it up into microscopic pieces to free the oil. The better fracking technologies to do this had been around for a while but nobody tried it in ND as the Bakken was known as a thick tary and sour formation. Its crude characteristics don't improve until the well is fracked where the amount of hydrocarbon released in the frack job overwhelms the sour compounds and becomes very easy to pump. This is a light sweet crude that should trade at a premium to WTI but does not due to the lack of pipelines and personnel to drill.

Another discovery from the Bakken area as well. The Three Forks-Sanish formation is underneath the Bakken formation. I don't know how it was discovered but possibly by some errant driller who went thorugh the Bakken zone and hit the Three Forks by mistake. It really hadn't been thought of before that an oil formation would exist under a producing oil formation. Nobody had really bothered to try and look. This is may provide a flurry of exploration in previously produced fields as there may be untapped reserves 1000 to 3000 feet below them.

It's exciting but the oil boom may still be on but the hiring boom may go bust next year. That is due to the fact that America has a highly productive work force and the number of jobs in the energy sector may fill up next year as production numbers level off due to infrastructure. The other jobs that need to be done will fill more slowly so there will be jobs available but not energy ones, much like in a normal diversified economy in any city.

[kychlo]

Originally Posted by ElkHunter

Williston is working on the first one, right now.

I was in the Wyoming oilfield in 72 and we cut crews to about 10% of original size and then capped about 80% of the producing wells. Then, the nation had a gas shortage, people could only get 10 gallons when they stopped at a station. That lasted about 4 months and the prices came up good enough that we put on most of our original crew. That held for about 2 years and they layed off a bunch again. After 4 or 5 times of doing that, they finally figured out how many peope it would take to maintain without laying off and hiring again.

Right now is the time to get on and plant your feet firmly. Learn fast and bust your hump so when they decide to level off, you are well established and can make the grade on the people they keep.

Jobs will still be available this spring and through the summer. But if I was a betting man, I'd bet that jobs are going to be hard to come by next winter.

Have you heard of any big boom in Wyoming? They are fracking here. But you don't see any kind of big hiring boom going on. That's because they are fracking with old crews and just maintaining personel levels. They hire every now and then, but they are not booming like North Dakota is.

Right now they are fracking in North Dakota. Why haven't they done it before? Because the prices wouldn't support fracking. Fracking is expensive. Prices are up so fracking is worth it. Open up too many wells, pump too much oil, prices of oil start to decline and then fracking is not cost effective. Pretty easy to see what will happen then.

The oil in ND is near the quality of diesel fuel. WY and ND formations are different. There have been some pretty bold statements made about how long this will last. All oil patches are not the same. Comparing the 1972 WY field to the 2012 ND Bakken/Three Forks is not comparing apples to apples. Actually the first boom in ND was in the 1950's then another boom came in the late 70's early 80's. 2008 brought it's own boom (that slowed in 2009) then now this oil field has came to the national spotlight in 2010-11-12 I started working in the ND oilfield in 2004. It's changed dramatically since then but one thing is for certain. This boom is an industry not a "boom". If the price of oil stays above $60/bbl and no fracking regulation is put on ND, this will last a long, long time.

http://willistonnd.com/usrimages/Bak...w13Oct2011.pdf

[dafeeder]

When the party is over, there will probably be plenty of CDL drivers looking for work, therefore pushing truck driving wages down to the area of $10 or hours cut back.

[jasperhobbs]

Originally Posted by ElkHunter

Things will taper off pretty quick. There will be drilling and there will be pumping for many years to come. But the boom won't last that long.

They can't drill all the wells they want to to begin with. Oil is marketed much the same as diamonds. They release enough to keep the cost up. If they release too much, the cost goes down and they start shutting down wells and capping them. Most companies have done that before and it caused a lot of problems. They ramp up with people, then lay off, price gets back to where it needs to be and they ramp up and then lay off. About 3 swings like that and they can't get folks to come back to work for them and it's too costly to keep training new crews over and over.

So they'll kick it for a while and the market will level out and when it does, you watch, they'll put a hiring freeze on and limit new wells.

But to the op, a job in the spring is probably fine. It takes about 2 years to get full production going so that they can better manage so they can keep prices as high as they want.

I've lived through, and worked in, several booms and that is what happened almost every time.

Elk Hunter, I think you are 100% correct. Boom won't last forever. Also, you can get bet oil producing countries are keeping a watchful eye on what's going on and if they see too much USA oil production, they will increase output and keep dropping price of a barrel of oil until capping of US oil wells happens.

Jasper Hobbs

[ElkHunter]

Originally Posted by kychlo

The oil in ND is near the quality of diesel fuel. WY and ND formations are different. There have been some pretty bold statements made about how long this will last. All oil patches are not the same. Comparing the 1972 WY field to the 2012 ND Bakken/Three Forks is not comparing apples to apples. Actually the first boom in ND was in the 1950's then another boom came in the late 70's early 80's. 2008 brought it's own boom (that slowed in 2009) then now this oil field has came to the national spotlight in 2010-11-12 I started working in the ND oilfield in 2004. It's changed dramatically since then but one thing is for certain. This boom is an industry not a "boom". If the price of oil stays above $60/bbl and no fracking regulation is put on ND, this will last a long, long time.

http://willistonnd.com/usrimages/Bak...w13Oct2011.pdf

Of course the fracking in ND and WY are different. Wyoming is fracking for Gas's.

I never said that the oil and drilling wouldn't last. Please reread what I said. The need for people will taper off. Every oil field may be different, but the economy and Joe the Plumber hasn't changed. If they open too many wells and start pumping, the price goes down and then fracking, no matter how you do it, will not be cost effective. They have to keep the costs up there and they can't do it with an abundance of oil. The field, the pumping, will be there for many many years. But it will be throttled and limited.

As far as regulations are concerned, they will trickle in. Nothing was in place before and the EPA is learning about as fast as the industry is on how and what fracking is doing. So we can probably expect more regulation. I don't think the regs will shut anything down, but I do expect things like dumping to tighten up some.

[dafeeder]

You might want to think about demand from India and other growing countries. Crude Oil never got over $40 until the 90's. A higher US $ could also have an impact down the road.

[kychlo]

Originally Posted by ElkHunter

Of course the fracking in ND and WY are different. Wyoming is fracking for Gas's.

I never said that the oil and drilling wouldn't last. Please reread what I said. The need for people will taper off. Every oil field may be different, but the economy and Joe the Plumber hasn't changed. If they open too many wells and start pumping, the price goes down and then fracking, no matter how you do it, will not be cost effective. They have to keep the costs up there and they can't do it with an abundance of oil. The field, the pumping, will be there for many many years. But it will be throttled and limited.

As far as regulations are concerned, they will trickle in. Nothing was in place before and the EPA is learning about as fast as the industry is on how and what fracking is doing. So we can probably expect more regulation. I don't think the regs will shut anything down, but I do expect things like dumping to tighten up some.

I re read your post and I do see your points. "They" are predicting 30 more rigs at this time next year so there will still be a need for workers a year from now.

[ElkHunter]

Originally Posted by kychlo

I re read your post and I do see your points. "They" are predicting 30 more rigs at this time next year so there will still be a need for workers a year from now.

Absolutely. But I don't think it's going to be the personel boom that it was this year. But, that's just my opinion.

[scorpio125]

Originally Posted by ElkHunter

But I don't think it's going to be the personel boom that it was this year.

So back to the original question..... is it worth it going up in March to find an entry level job?

[ElkHunter]

Originally Posted by scorpio125

So back to the original question..... is it worth it going up in March to find an entry level job?

Sure it is. That will be catching early spring when company's that need to gear up are doing so. That will also put you in ahead of most people that didn't want to be up there in the winter.