Oil to double by 2015, ND to add over 300,000 people (Fargo: new home, heat pump)

[fourwinds]

North Dakota is probably over 700,000 people for the first time in its history now. Now predictions that it will grow to over 1,000,000. That would be like adding three Fargos.

N.D. oil regulator: State's oil production could double by 2015 | Grand Forks Herald | Grand Forks, North Dakota

North Dakota's top oil regulator says the state could double its oil production by 2015 to more than 1 million barrels daily, putting it on par with Texas.


Helms says the jump in production in North Dakota and the resulting economic activity likely would push the state's population to more than 1 million residents.

[fourwinds]

Regulator says ND's oil production could double - CBS News

[dutchinnd]

Unfortunately, there is no way that ND is prepared to handle a 45% increase in population, such as:
--45% increase in sewage treatment capacity
--45% increase in landfill/solid waste capacity
--45% increase in traffic
--45% increase in licensing work at state/county offices
--45% increase in K-12 population
etc., etc., etc.
And even more unfortunately, it appears that state officials have no plans in place to be able to address these issues either.

[Naelbis]

That would be a nightmare from every perspective for someone like me who works for the government....and of course there is always the political and social fallout to consider.

[fourwinds]

Originally Posted by dutchinnd

Unfortunately, there is no way that ND is prepared to handle a 45% increase in population, such as:
--45% increase in sewage treatment capacity
--45% increase in landfill/solid waste capacity
--45% increase in traffic
--45% increase in licensing work at state/county offices
--45% increase in K-12 population
etc., etc., etc.
And even more unfortunately, it appears that state officials have no plans in place to be able to address these issues either.

North Dakota could easily handle 200,000 more people if that population was distributed throughout the state. Most smaller towns have lost 50% or more of their population in the past 40 years. On the edges of the Bakken, the population will possibly get back to what it once was. Places like Burke County, Divide County, Renville County - those places are only shells of the human activity that used to be there.

As far as adding 300,000 people, there are a lot of places that add that many people in ten years when the population formerly was just a fraction of that. Phoenix went from 100,000 to 400,000 people from 1950 to 1960 after the heat pump was introduced. Fort Myers-Naples exploded in population more recently. Whole counties near suburban Atlanta become part of that metro within a few years. Practically every city in the country has experienced explosive growth at least once in it's life. Minot has experienced explosive growth three times now: when it was settled, when the air base moved in, and with the oil boom.

Some of the growth projections have:

Williston: 70,000 more
Watford City: 20,000
Tioga: 10,000
Stanley: 15,000
Berthold/Des Lacs/Burlington: 10,000
Minot: 40,000
Dickinson: 25,000

Perhaps growth for these towns / counties:

Killdeer: 5000
Crosby: 5000
McLean County: 5000
New Town: 5000
Belfield / South Heart: 5000
Alexander: 2000
Trenton: 2000
Kenmare: 2000
Burke County: 2000
Golden Valley County: 4000
Billings County: 4000


Bismarck probably adds 25,000 or more just from growth in government, sales, law firms, other services.

That's 250,000 more people just in those locales listed. Much of that growth has already been planned for.

[dutchinnd]

From the reports in the AP/Forum articles last summer, Stanley could not handle the 2011 level of sewage in their treatment lagoons. There's been no report that the situation has improved to the level of being able to handle 15,000 residents.

When South Dakota is bringing in their officials to tour the Basin to learn what NOT to do, there is definitely a problem with the lack of planning (May 14, Morning Edition report on NPR).

[fourwinds]

Isn't the state financing structural improvements? Mountrail County/Stanley doesn't seem to want growth, and if they don't apply for funding, they won't grow. McKenzie County/Watford City, on the other hand, seem to have very ambitious growth plans.

http://www.ndhealth.gov/MF/forms/pre...astructure.pdf

[Naelbis]

Originally Posted by fourwinds

Isn't the state financing structural improvements? Mountrail County/Stanley doesn't seem to want growth, and if they don't apply for funding, they won't grow. McKenzie County/Watford City, on the other hand, seem to have very ambitious growth plans.

http://www.ndhealth.gov/MF/forms/pre...astructure.pdf

It isn't that Mountrail doesn't want growth, they just don't want anything goes growth. McKenzie on the other hand, didn't even have zoning ordinances until recently and they have saved a bunch of money by not hiring anyone to handle the influx and passing their Court and Jail overflow off on Williams County for them to pay for.

[Nexis4Jersey]

You'll have to build like Calgary and that's upwards in your cities and outwards in your suburbs. You'll also need a Transit system....Rail and Bus system..

[Roloff1976]

Originally Posted by Nexis4Jersey

You'll have to build like Calgary and that's upwards in your cities and outwards in your suburbs. You'll also need a Transit system....Rail and Bus system..

Love Calgary! What a nice city! We could only dream to have a city like Calgary in North Dakota!

At the recent Bakken Housing Summit, they indicated Williston needs 7,000 new homes right now...they are currently attempting to get 5,000 built in 48months. But they said Williston will need 25,000 new housing units within the next 10 years...so if they did build 25,000 new housing units in Williston, that would definately put that town in the 75,000-100,000+ population range. It will definately be interesting to see.