North Dakota population estimates (Fargo, Bismarck: house, to live in, prices)

[chester]

I too question some of the census bureau's estimates. They are just that, estimates. I don't think they have a clue what is going on in many parts of the country, they just use statistics like death, birth, and the 10 year counts and come up with figures. I know many people in Williston, and have myself been there many times. When the 2000 census was taken in Williston , it was 12,500 people, 1/3 of the apartment buildings were empty, trailer parks were half full, many homes for sale or sitting empty. Today, they have waiting lists for apartments, new apartments being built, trailer courts full, and even one that was abandoned has re-opened and nearly half full. Not to mention all the houses popping up all over town. I really doubt Williston has only grown by a few hundred people since the 2000 census. I know the city itself estimates it is around 15,000. But, we will find out when the government does their census in 2010.

[FargoBison]

The census numbers aren't that great, they always undercount Fargo and I wouldn't be shocked at all if the same was going on out west.

One amazing population figure I heard a week or so ago was that West Fargo is now over 26,000 people and has grown by 75% since 2000. In the next decade West Fargo will more then likely pass Minot and become the states 4th largest city.

[ebitdadada]

So I'm a bored nerd and actually looked at the census estimates by county. Some Observations:

1. Fun With Extrapolation - Extrapolating Last Year's Growth Rates:

1. Half of NDers will live in GF, Bis-Man, or Fargo by 2011.
2. Half of NDers will live in Bis-Man or Fargo by 2028. In 2028, Cass county would have 200,000, Bis-Man 155,000, & the state of ND 710,000.
3. In 2044, more people will live in Cass county than the rest of the state ex Bis-Man & GF. By 2054, more people will live in Cass County than the rest of the state ex Bis-Man.

I'd imagine the oil boom will postpone the date when Fargo + Bis-Man are half of the state if Williston & Dickinson grow enough. On the other hand the oil boom will also boost Bis-Man. I suppose Fargo will also likely also benefit as the state pumps oil money into NDSU. So its hard to tell.

2. More seriously, something apears to have happened in Bismarck-Mandan (burligh county + morton county) sometime in 2004 - 2005 (was that when the price of oil went up?). Up until 2004-2005, the growth rate in Bis-Man hovered around .8% and was as low as .3% in 2000 - 2001. It then went to 1.7% in 2004-2005 and has increased every year since, hitting 2% this past year.

[BreaOC]

Originally Posted by ebitdadada

Some Observations

Awesome work with the numbers. I like figuring things like that too, and have though about situations like this where you have a state with a generally low population with two areas that make up the majority of that population. Did you figure in the people from migrating from other states to ND into that as well? Bismarck and Fargo have a percentage of their growth coming from out of state, although it is safe to figure a lot of their growth come from the rural areas of the state.

[chester]

I don't think the reason that Bismarck-Mandan increased in population was because of the increased price of oil. I live in Bismarck, and there are no oil companies in Bismarck. There are many people living in people that work in the coal industry, however. But, Bismarck hit that majic number of 50,000, and that seems to be the number for most small cities, where national chains look more seriously at coming into those sized communities. When you read the requirements for certain store and resturaunts, many require a population base of 50,000 within the 10mile radius before they grant franchises. I think the spurt in retail and services was a result of hitting that number. Also, Bismarck-Mandan has also done an excellant job of luring national companies here such as Unysis, Covenant Health, Aetna-US Healthcare, Sykes, etc... as examples, that employee a couple thouasand people... also both U-Mary and Bismarck state continue to grow every year. So, with the huge growth of service, retail, business...thus the increase in numbers of new people. Not unlike Fargo and the impact Microsoft will have on its city. I think Bismarck will also see more companies moving in because of the number of young workers, it is a nice community, and every year, it becomes more desireable to live there.

[bismanpokerclub]

Originally Posted by chester

I don't think the reason that Bismarck-Mandan increased in population was because of the increased price of oil. I live in Bismarck, and there are no oil companies in Bismarck. .

You might want to look across the river at Mandan. That big industrial looking area, thats a refinery.

[BreaOC]

^^^Thats what I was thinking!

[ssgoodman]

i know quite a few people that work on the oil fields and none of them have moved to Williston. They drive there to work for 7 days then they drive back to their home for 7 days. Of the people that I know working there they all come back to Upham or Towner after their work week is over.

Sutton

[chester]

The Tesero refinery has been in Mandan since the 50's. It has not grown with the oil prices in the past few years. The same number of people work there now, then did in the past decade. The prices of oil have not caused hundreds of people to flock to the Bismarck-Mandan area to work in the refinery. What I meant by no oil companies in Bismarck-Mandan, I am talking about the service companies that come into the area and hire many new employees. Williston is a perfect example of that. New oil field related businesses are opening daily in Williston. New offices, new jobs bring in new people. These oil companies are not opening up offices in Bismarck. So, the influx of new people into Bismarck is not because of the price of oil. That is all I was saying.

[chester]

ssgoodman. No question many people travel to the western part of the state to work for their days on, and then go home for their days off. I also know people in Bismarck who travel to the Williston area to work and come home on the weekends. Not unlike the coal plants up in and around Beulah. But, I also know of many people that have moved to Williston. Many companies like Schlumberger, Sanjel, Key, Halliburton have hired 100's of new employees. Many people have moved to Williston to work thoses jobs, and many travel back and forth. But judging by the housing shortage in Williston, I am guessing many have moved there.