North Dakota population estimates (Fargo, Bismarck: 2010, unemployment rate, living in)

[Roloff1976]

I was wondering how the census bureau comes up with their population estimates? I just find it interesting that towns in the oil patch have grown only a couple hundred people according to the census bureau estimates, but yet the number of jobs in the area have increased by the thousands. For example, Job Service ND says nearly 3,000 more people are working in Williston in 2007 than 2000, but Williston actually has less people in 2007 than in 2000? This doesn't make sense to me.

[GraniteStater]

Originally Posted by Roloff1976

I was wondering how the census bureau comes up with their population estimates? I just find it interesting that towns in the oil patch have grown only a couple hundred people according to the census bureau estimates, but yet the number of jobs in the area have increased by the thousands. For example, Job Service ND says nearly 3,000 more people are working in Williston in 2007 than 2000, but Williston actually has less people in 2007 than in 2000? This doesn't make sense to me.

The Census data would indicate that the population for Williams County as a whole has declined since 2000. That could indicate that more people are moving out of the rural areas of the county and into Williston or moving elsewhere. ND has a low unemployment rate and I read an article a few months ago saying that they have labor shortages in a few areas.

[Roloff1976]

Thanks for the explanation Plains10. I was just reading the Fargo forum and the census bureau just released their estimates from July of 2006 to July of 2007...they said Williams county (Williston) grew by 283 people...but the number of jobs in Williams county (williston) from July 2006 to 2007 increased by 900. So just thought the numbers were a bit scewed. I guess we will know the actual counts in 2010.

[bismanpokerclub]

Originally Posted by Roloff1976

Thanks for the explanation Plains10. I was just reading the Fargo forum and the census bureau just released their estimates from July of 2006 to July of 2007...they said Williams county (Williston) grew by 283 people...but the number of jobs in Williams county (williston) from July 2006 to 2007 increased by 900. So just thought the numbers were a bit scewed. I guess we will know the actual counts in 2010.

You also have to remember that 900 jobs does not automatically = 900 new residents. Some people never take up permanent residince in that town, other times a "new" job is filled by someone leaving another job that is not filled after they leave, and some people, especially in this area will work more than one job.

[FrederickW]

The estimates are notoriously inaccurate.

[BreaOC]

Actually the estimates for census 2000 were off by generally less than 100, if not an exact estimate when the actual numbers came in for many cities. A lot of the people taking the jobs in Williston are probably from out of the city and county, when you consider persons living in the rural areas of that part of the state would be more than happy to commute for a decent paying job outside of Wal Mart lol. Also, Wiliston and Dickinson were both losing population until this more recent boom, so lets say figuratively Williston had 12,000, then between 2000 and 2006 they lost 600 people, then between 2006 and 2007 450 people moved there making the current population 11,850. It would have a positive population growth, but the numbers would look off since they are still lower than 2000. Unless you had a year by year break down of the estimates it is hard to understand exactly what was happening there.

[BreaOC]

PS- It's great to see the continued growth of the Bismarck and Fargo metro areas. The county of Burleigh continues to have the largest percentage of growth in the state (2.11%), and Cass county continues to have the highest number of people moving in (2,424). The current estimates place Fargo at 192,417 and Bismarck at 103,242. Not much information was offered regarding the GF area, although the said story did mention a drop in Grand Forks Counties population by 151 people. All estimates are for growth/decline between 2006-2007.

[bismanpokerclub]

Originally Posted by BreaOC

PS- It's great to see the continued growth of the Bismarck and Fargo metro areas. The county of Burleigh continues to have the largest percentage of growth in the state (2.11%), and Cass county continues to have the highest number of people moving in (2,424). The current estimates place Fargo at 192,417 and Bismarck at 103,242. Not much information was offered regarding the GF area, although the said story did mention a drop in Grand Forks Counties population by 151 people. All estimates are for growth/decline between 2006-2007.

I think your Populations for Fargo and Bismarck are a bit off. those might be either county totals or more likely the metropolitan areas. I wouldn't want to say for Fargo but I know the City of Bismarck by itself can't be over 103K, yet anyway.

[FrederickW]

Originally Posted by BreaOC

Actually the estimates for census 2000 were off by generally less than 100, if not an exact estimate when the actual numbers came in for many cities. A lot of the people taking the jobs in Williston are probably from out of the city and county, when you consider persons living in the rural areas of that part of the state would be more than happy to commute for a decent paying job outside of Wal Mart lol. Also, Wiliston and Dickinson were both losing population until this more recent boom, so lets say figuratively Williston had 12,000, then between 2000 and 2006 they lost 600 people, then between 2006 and 2007 450 people moved there making the current population 11,850. It would have a positive population growth, but the numbers would look off since they are still lower than 2000. Unless you had a year by year break down of the estimates it is hard to understand exactly what was happening there.

I was talking about the "July 2006 Estimates" on the city profile pages.

[BreaOC]

Originally Posted by BreaOC

PS- It's great to see the continued growth of the Bismarck and Fargo metro areas. The county of Burleigh continues to have the largest percentage of growth in the state (2.11%), and Cass county continues to have the highest number of people moving in (2,424). The current estimates place Fargo at 192,417 and Bismarck at 103,242. Not much information was offered regarding the GF area, although the said story did mention a drop in Grand Forks Counties population by 151 people. All estimates are for growth/decline between 2006-2007.

As I said it is for the metro populations. If a city has a metropolitan population I will hardly ever use the city proper population. Most people are more interested in how many people reside in an area anyway.
FrederickW- you may be correct. Since I have never used the city profile page I'm not sure the accuracy of their numbers. I use numbers from the census since they have the final say in official numbers.