The neighbourhood west of Oxbow ND

[DaninEGF]

Hi

I enjoy these discussions because I want to expand knowledge of our the NWS and the River Forecast Centers and the USGS interact. I am not a hydrologist trained in river modeling but a meteorologist whose input into all of this as the lead forecaster on shift was to coordinate with the RFC in Chanhassen precipitation amounts that may occur from upcoming storms so they can input that into their models. Otherwise the role of others here at the NWS office is to coordinate with local officials (city, county, township, state, etc) in regards to what info they need....QC'ing river gauges, and letting the appropriate agency know of bad gauges (usually the USGS).

As it is set up know....the USGS has gauge points set up along certain rivers. The NWS has forecast points for which the RFC (which is staffed by actual hydrologists but are NWS employees) does river stage/flow forecasts for. One of the larger issues with the RFC is that the USGS measures river by flow (cfs) and then the RFC uses a rating curve to correlate that flow to a stage. These ratings curves are very dependent on many things....such as all the water flow remaining in the channel. During water breakouts along the river such as the Sheyenne and wild rice this past spring the amount of flow passing by a gauge can be less than anticipated by the river modeling system. An accuracy of 1-2ft in a crest prediction is actually considered quite good in major floods by river modelers standards just to due inherent unkowns in major floods (breakouts, debris daming, etc).

Anyway I think most would agree that the first prediction by the RFC was quite good as it was predicted in the 40 ish foot range and it indeed got that high (record level). I recall an afternoon when monitoring chat between the USGS and the RFC that measurements of flow at Hickson and Abercrombie on the Red were at record levels and actually could mean a stage of 41 ft crest at Fargo. What happened was kind of what happened in 1997 as colder air moved in (colder than forecast) and ice formed in the ditches etc and snowmelt runoff ceased. Thus the first crest wave made it through Fargo a bit less than what could have been if there was no cold outbreak.

Now...when the second crest prediction was issued by the RFC of 39-40 ft it was based on water that had been stopped in its track upstream due to the breakouts from the Sheyenne and wild rice. The RFC was trying to model that through the river channel along the Red at Fargo.

Now what occurred that Friday with regards to raising the crest at the last minute (second crest) was very very upsetting to all of us here as it was purely done for political purposes IMO. The NWS national headquarters in Washington along with FEMA asked the RFC what is the worst case scenerio. The 1 pct case. FEMA did not want another Katrina. RFC mentioned 42-43 ft as worst case. The RFC was told to issue that number as the second crest and it was given to our office to deliever out to the public and city officials. We did not think that this forecast was valid but we were told what to do by higher ups.

That went out late Friday afternoon and of course all heck broke loose. The city-county decided what they needed....as we have no input into those decisions directly. We provide them with info.

That is the input I have. I can answer any additional ? you have to the best of my knowledge.

Dan GF

[Musketeer]

Dan,

Thank you for your candid response.

As I mentioned before, as well as you, river modeling is complicated.

I attended every meeting I was aware of to gather what I needed to make my personal assessment. Water break-outs are unpredictable...and when they happen, all the advance math in the world is reactionary.

I've watched floods over 35 years in this region. Every time there's a major event, the hydrologists say water from the Sheyenne can't enter the Wild Rice...yet I've personally watched the Sheyenne River enter the Wild Rice on several times over the past 20yrs. Twice during 2009 alone. Add Sheyenne water to the mix and Fargo and everything south suffers greatly.

The reason the Wild Rice is such an issue is due to its break-out nature. The channel is smaller than the Red River, but can exceed the Red's flow in the same area during major flooding. The bottleneck that is created by the Wild Rice and Red causes most problems for those south of Fargo.

3 major saving graces for Bakke. The cold temps that created ice-ridges along I29, the increased road bed height along I29 when it was rebuilt post 97' and the additional 6 inches of asphalt on Hwy81. All worked together to hold back break-out flood waters of the Red and Wild Rice.

Many residents explained how the water acts in this area to the "pro's" but dimissed our real-life observations as though we were town drunks. The senior hydrologist that attended meetings in Hickson emphatically denied the Wild Rice flowing south toward Bakke, yet we have video that shows the river breaking out at the I29 bridge and flowing directly towards Bakke and flooding property just to the west.

Once again, thank you for clarifying that Fargo and Cass county based their hysteria on "worst case" scenario predictions and turned around and pointed fingers at the messenger when they got caught with their politcal pants down.

I respect your position.

[DaninEGF]

Originally Posted by Musketeer

Dan,

Thank you for your candid response.

As I mentioned before, as well as you, river modeling is complicated.

I attended every meeting I was aware of to gather what I needed to make my personal assessment. Water break-outs are unpredictable...and when they happen, all the advance math in the world is reactionary.

I've watched floods over 35 years in this region. Every time there's a major event, the hydrologists say water from the Sheyenne can't enter the Wild Rice...yet I've personally watched the Sheyenne River enter the Wild Rice on several times over the past 20yrs. Twice during 2009 alone. Add Sheyenne water to the mix and Fargo and everything south suffers greatly.

The reason the Wild Rice is such an issue is due to its break-out nature. The channel is smaller than the Red River, but can exceed the Red's flow in the same area during major flooding. The bottleneck that is created by the Wild Rice and Red causes most problems for those south of Fargo.

3 major saving graces for Bakke. The cold temps that created ice-ridges along I29, the increased road bed height along I29 when it was rebuilt post 97' and the additional 6 inches of asphalt on Hwy81. All worked together to hold back break-out flood waters of the Red and Wild Rice.

Many residents explained how the water acts in this area to the "pro's" but dimissed our real-life observations as though we were town drunks. The senior hydrologist that attended meetings in Hickson emphatically denied the Wild Rice flowing south toward Bakke, yet we have video that shows the river breaking out at the I29 bridge and flowing directly towards Bakke and flooding property just to the west.

Once again, thank you for clarifying that Fargo and Cass county based their hysteria on "worst case" scenario predictions and turned around and pointed fingers at the messenger when they got caught with their politcal pants down.

I respect your position.

I feel for you folks down there south of Fargo. It will be very interesting to see what comes of the permanent flood protection. Our MIC of NWS GF attended yesterday a meeting at the Red River Basin commission in Moorhead and there was a presentation from the Corps. At the present, they told him the corps will present several different options and agree to pay xx amount. If the cities want more then they will have to come up with more funds. They hope to develop ideas in the next year and maybe start work on a permanent soln in 2012. But who knows....this stuff does changes. Unfortunately, I dont know all that much on this end of things as I work more in the weather field (snow-rain-thunderstorms versus river) but everyone is anxious to see something done.

I wonder whom the guy was in Hickson. It could have been a USGS hydrologist but education needs to be done always in this. good luck.

Just know that outside forces were at hand for that second higher crest. We were told what to do and had to say...even the RFC had no say....do this and no questions. The rest of the flood forecasting went well I think.

Back to 97 in Grand Forks I wasnt here...but again the river modelers were dealing with an event it had never seen before and thus the hydrologists just had no confidence in how breakouts and ice dams would affect river levels.

The NWS held several partner meetings with the cities and counties affected this past summer and got some good ideas on what they need. The communication during this past event was way way better than in 97 and even in 2006 so that was a huge plus. The negative was outside forces who did not understand the issues as well as locals IMO.

But make no mistake...all of us regardless of NWS RFC or USGS really do care greatly how our forecasts affect people. My wife hates me checking on the weather everyday even on days off as I wonder how my temp fcst is doing, etc.

[Musketeer]

Originally Posted by DaninEGF

Back to 97 in Grand Forks I wasnt here...but again the river modelers were dealing with an event it had never seen before and thus the hydrologists just had no confidence in how breakouts and ice dams would affect river levels.

Isn't it ironic that "flooding", the event that causes the most sustained damage and financial loss, has had the least amount of funding to research...

I suggested diverting water at Abercrombie into the south fork of the Buffalo river (which would need to be widened or have a secondary channel cut) and bring the water around to Georgetown where the Red and Buffalo naturally meet. In 1997 it would have cost around 100 million to tackle the project. Much less than the losses and expenses for 2009's flood.

EXCUSE: There 17 feet of elevation between Abercrombie and the south fork of the Buffalo river.

My response: PUMPS like they use in New Orleans

Their response: dumbfounded looks and nothing but "crickets"...

[DaninEGF]

It will be interesting to see what is decided in terms of permanment protection. How far south too? Lots of issues to deal with and will take tough leadership. We hope for a quiet spring 2010 flood season.

thanks for the chat and good for you in terms of leadership and knowing what is going on in terms of flooding in your area.

Dan