The neighbourhood west of Oxbow ND (Fargo, Grand Forks: real estate, 2010, loan)

[Ionlimius]

I saw an (Unnamed?) neighbourhood west of Oxbow ND on google earth, How is the typical house price in that neighbourhood?

[Cain]

How far west (past what highway)? Would be concerned about flooding in that area.

[Ionlimius]

Originally Posted by Cain

How far west (past what highway)? Would be concerned about flooding in that area.

Yep, the neighbourhood right west of that highway. There must be serious flooding concern over there. Most houses in that neighbourhood are exactly the type commonly found in upscale neighbourhoods in the Midwest. In Fargo, I think similar neighbourhoods would be Briarwood and Oxbow.

(I have never lived in Fargo after 1 year old, while my parents lived near NDSU in 1986-1990 when they attended NDSU for bachelor degrees)

The Red River Valley is so flat (particularly for areas so close to the river itself). Strange, some of the priciest neighbourhoods in North Dakota such as Briarwood and Oxbow are exactly located there.

[DaninEGF]

Yes that area had some serious flooding issues....however many homeowners did build up their dikes to protect some homes. But that area is outside any flood control and it is up to the homeowner.

I found some pictures for the area. I am personally not familiar with the oxbow area exactly but NWS Grand Forks forecasts for the Sheyenne and Wild Rice rivers in that area.

Red River Flood - Wednesday, March 25, 2009 | Dave Arntson : Photojournalist

Major Flooding Around Oxbow, North Dakota. | Douglas Kiesling - The Weather Paparazzi

Bakke - Hickson - Oxbow | Dude Walker

Dan

[DaninEGF]

For home prices and listings in the F-M area you can look at the MLS via the craryrealestate page...

Crary Homes and Real Estate Fargo MLS Search

Go down in the towns listed below and click on Horace or Oxbow and its shows most listings in the 350-450,000 range.

I found out that those addresses west of the highway have a Horace address.

Dan

[Musketeer]

I live in the Bakke subdivion, and although there was flooding in the area...and came very close, the only substantial losses were due to sewer backup by some that were connected to the rural sewer collection system. Something about pumps being shut down by Fargo.

Houses range in the $110-$350k.

There are some really nice people, and some troublmakers like any community.The best thing about the community is the developer never retained the right to form a Home Owners Association, which would require 100% approval to pass now. So aside from a few that grumble about petty stuff, they can't tell you whether you want a garden or what flowers to plant.

Originally Posted by Ionlimius

The Red River Valley is so flat (particularly for areas so close to the river itself). Strange, some of the priciest neighbourhoods in North Dakota such as Briarwood and Oxbow are exactly located there.

Ironically 70-75% of the entire state population lives in the Red River Valley. With over 1/3 living within 5 miles of the Red River.

It dates back to early commerce, trade routes and resources.

[Cain]

I drove around Oxbow with the wife, nice area, but I wouldn't want to live there after the flooding unless something is done.

[Musketeer]

Cain,

I wouldn't want to live in Oxbow either. WAAAYYY too many restrictive covenances. You can't event have a garden shed. You can't park your RV in your driveway. The streets got pretty tore up when the flood barriers were built and the people still living there will pay a premium in specials for years to fix the damages.

Oxbow is really exposed. The least accessible flank is exposed by the Red River along with all the homes on the inward River Side. I think 10-11 people lost their home this year, which was tragic.

The last crest prediction that caused the major diking to take place was a waste in Oxbow and Cass county. I know predictions are complicated, but to miss your mark by 10 feet should leave someone feeling culpable for the wasted tax dollars.

If a person feels compelled on their own accord to spend 3-5000 dollars to protect their property, they are doing it on their own accord.

If a person feels compelled because people that are placed in a position of trust fail to do their job properly and cover their butts with a fairly unreal prediction that creates the hysteria of spend spend spend...then ultimately say "ooops..my bad" we were wrong. Where's the accountability?

Bakke, albeit, gravel roads...has some of the highest land in Pleasant township. If Bakke floods, Fargo's will be in a world of hurt. Most properties in Bakke are above 912.5 flood stage. Which also will make Bakke property worth more in the future when the real estate and bank loan markets rebounds.

[DaninEGF]

Musketeer....

I am a meteorologist for the NWS in Grand Forks.... I am not sure where you got your info about crest from but would love to discuss it if you want. Maybe a better spot for this would be thru PM's. I can discuss what occurred, etc. I dont know anywhere where it was missed by 10 ft. The RFC out of Chanhassen does the crest predictions....discusses with the local NWS office (Grand Forks in this case) and then we send it out and the media gets it and we also do many many interviews and conference calls with the appropriate parties (in last spring's case it was the city of Fargo, Cass county, city of Moorhead, Clay county as well as all EM's and county officials up and down the valley and out in the Sheyenne and Wild Rice. It is important to note that crests are done for river forecast points only for example the Wild Rice at Abercrombie. I know Kindred is one as well. I know the RFC had trouble with getting enough info on the Sheyenne upstream of Lisbon and Valley city and overland flooding always is very difficult to understand and hydrologists really have difficulty in putting that into the river models.

Dan

[Musketeer]

Originally Posted by DaninEGF

Musketeer....

I am not sure where you got your info about crest from but would love to discuss it if you want. Maybe a better spot for this would be thru PM's.

Dan,

The information I am referring to is for the 2nd crest which was widely disseminated in the news, by the US Army core of engineers and county officials.

The 2nd Crest - The crest that prompted soccer fields, parks...etc, to be ripped up for clay flood barrier material which cost the State, County and property owners additional MILLIONS in flood preparation.

http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory?id=7286013

http://www.inforum.com/event/article/id/236570

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/30033671/

While there may be a "title" in a position and training...a "title" is only as good as the accuracy that backs it up.

Sure, it was a good thing that flood forecast was lowered...but not until after preparations had been made for floor barriers to be built upward of 44-46 feet in Fargo and past 918 feet in the Oxbow, Hickson, Bakke area.

TOO MUST HYSTERIA INDUCED BY INACCURATE PREDICTIONS

The CANYONS that were dug for borrowed material were staggering. All on the taxpayers dime. In the end, if more data and less gut guesswork had gone into the flood forecast, MILLIONS could have been saved.

The point that I am now underscoring, is the 2nd flood forecast was NO different to weary flood fighters...than yelling fire in a crowded theatre. I'm all for funding NOAA & NWS, however, privately - Houston engineering had a better and more accurate flood forecast model, yet their information was shrugged off because it didn't come from NOAA or NWS or USGS.

Sadly, if flood forecasts are embellished to play it safe, then how credible does the next prediction become when the previous is missed?

Yes, the models are complicated. Yes there are roads, barriers, wetlands, culverts, drainage ditches...etc...to take into effect. But if your in the business of forecasting...that's your job. 100 years ago, there were no roads and the historical flood journals speak of the Red River being miles wide and several feet deep with burning homes floating by. Sounds like alot more water than we contended with this year.

I'm looking towards the future. When Fargo-Moorhead metro area reaches a potential 250,000 people by 2035, where will the water go? You can only push "x" amount of water thru Fargo-Mhd at flood stage. We need a coherent AND comprehensive flood forecast and data set. We also need to be on a uniform flood scale, not the mamby pamby "so many feet" over flood stage bull. There also needs to be a flood gauge along all rivers where the elevation has changed by 5-10ft. It would allow a faster and more accurate sampling of inflow into the river basin.

Sorry if this position stings, however, it's shared by many that shelled out excess funds...just to play it safe, based on a faulty prediction.

In Bakke alone, the residents spent nearly $100,000 in flood prep...based on a faulty prediction...for a flood that never came closer than 100 feet from a building and was 2 feet lower than the lowest exposed foundation.

I harbor no ill-will towards you...just don't roll out a "title" and expect respect...

I'll make a prediction: There is a 75% chance there'll be a major winter storm that affects the Red River Valley region between the months of Nov2009 and April 2010. This storm could last 1-3 days and may have the potential to cause casualities for those exposed for long periods of time. People in the affected area urged to take necessary precautions and not do any unnecessary travel.