Originally Posted by DaninEGF
I am not sure where you got your info about crest from but would love to discuss it if you want. Maybe a better spot for this would be thru PM's.
The information I am referring to is for the 2nd crest which was widely disseminated in the news, by the US Army core of engineers and county officials.
The 2nd Crest - The crest that prompted soccer fields, parks...etc, to be ripped up for clay flood barrier material which cost the State, County and property owners additional MILLIONS in flood preparation.
While there may be a "title" in a position and training...a "title" is only as good as the accuracy that backs it up.
Sure, it was a good thing that flood forecast was lowered...but not until after preparations had been made for floor barriers to be built upward of 44-46 feet in Fargo and past 918 feet in the Oxbow, Hickson, Bakke area.
TOO MUST HYSTERIA INDUCED BY INACCURATE PREDICTIONS
The CANYONS that were dug for borrowed material were staggering. All on the taxpayers dime. In the end, if more data and less gut guesswork had gone into the flood forecast, MILLIONS could have been saved.
The point that I am now underscoring, is the 2nd flood forecast was NO different to weary flood fighters...than yelling fire in a crowded theatre. I'm all for funding NOAA & NWS, however, privately - Houston engineering had a better and more accurate flood forecast model, yet their information was shrugged off because it didn't come from NOAA or NWS or USGS.
Sadly, if flood forecasts are embellished to play it safe, then how credible does the next prediction become when the previous is missed?
Yes, the models are complicated. Yes there are roads, barriers, wetlands, culverts, drainage ditches...etc...to take into effect. But if your in the business of forecasting...that's your job. 100 years ago, there were no roads and the historical flood journals speak of the Red River being miles wide and several feet deep with burning homes floating by. Sounds like alot more water than we contended with this year.
I'm looking towards the future. When Fargo-Moorhead metro area reaches a potential 250,000 people by 2035, where will the water go? You can only push "x" amount of water thru Fargo-Mhd at flood stage. We need a coherent AND comprehensive flood forecast and data set. We also need to be on a uniform flood scale, not the mamby pamby "so many feet" over flood stage bull. There also needs to be a flood gauge along all rivers where the elevation has changed by 5-10ft. It would allow a faster and more accurate sampling of inflow into the river basin.
Sorry if this position stings, however, it's shared by many that shelled out excess funds...just to play it safe, based on a faulty prediction.
In Bakke alone, the residents spent nearly $100,000 in flood prep...based on a faulty prediction...for a flood that never came closer than 100 feet from a building and was 2 feet lower than the lowest exposed foundation.
I harbor no ill-will towards you...just don't roll out a "title" and expect respect...
I'll make a prediction: There is a 75% chance there'll be a major winter storm that affects the Red River Valley region between the months of Nov2009 and April 2010. This storm could last 1-3 days and may have the potential to cause casualities for those exposed for long periods of time. People in the affected area urged to take necessary precautions and not do any unnecessary travel.