Interesting report on population in NEPA (Scranton, York: transplants, sales, real estate market)

[NYRangers 2008]

NEPA population fleeing cities for outlying townships
BY NICHOLE DOBO, STAFF WRITER
06/28/2007

When Susan Berkery moved to Thornhurst in 1999, it was to get away from New Jersey.





“This is like becoming the suburbs,” she said of the rural 23.2-square-mile township. “People who live here drive to New York and New Jersey to work.”

With an estimated population of 900 in 2006, Thornhurst Township is Lackawanna County’s fastest growing municipality, based on U.S. Census Bureau estimates released today.

The township has grown more than 12 percent since 2000, which is reflective of rural areas on the rise while urban centers continue to decline, according to estimates from the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey. Scranton’s population fell by 4.7 percent over the past six years, the data show.

The fastest-growing municipalities in seven counties in Northeastern Pennsylvania are all in Pike and Monroe counties, which saw increases ranging from 24 to 32 percent. No municipalities in these counties declined in the last six years, according to Census estimates.

“It’s not surprising to see some of that,” said William H. Frey, of the Washington, D.C.-based Brookings Institution. “People like the fact that they can live in a newer, spruced up place.”

Scranton Mayor Chris Doherty said he believes the Census estimates are off target. The city is gaining residents, he contends.

“I think you will see an increase,” Mr. Doherty said of the city’s next official Census, when people are individually counted. “I am out — I know the city. I have been doing this for nine years, and I’ve seen the change.”

The mayor points to large increases in school enrollment by new students in city schools, and the rising Hispanic population on the South Side as evidence of growth.

Continued immigration could be a boon to aging industrial cities like Scranton, according to a 2007 Brookings Institution study. Urban areas have always been “major gateways for newcomers, and many cities in the 1990s would not have grown at all — or would have shrunk even more — but for these groups,” according to the study.

In all, Luzerne County is losing the most people in the region, with a 2 percent decline in the last six years, according to the Census estimates.

The fastest-declining areas in the region are in Luzerne, where six municipalities have lost more than 5.6 percent of their population, according to the estimates.

Like other counties in Northeastern Pennsylvania, rural townships in Luzerne have seen increases, with Butler Township, near Hazleton, seeing a nearly 24 percent jump.

In Thornhurst — where residents must drive 20 minutes for a gallon of milk — the allure of rural life includes cheaper property and escape from the bustle of urban centers, resident Kim Grab said.

“There are definitely more people here than there used to be,” she said. “They are getting away from the city and getting used to the lifestyle of the country.”

Contact the writer: ndobo@timesshamrock.com
(Figures are percent change from 2000 to 2006)

Lackawanna County

(overall decrease of 1.7 percent)

Fastest growing

1. Thornhurst Twp., +12.8 percent

2. South Abington Twp., +10.3 percent

3. Greenfield Twp., +8.4 percent

4. Covington Twp., +7 percent

5. Roaring Brook Twp., +6.5 percent

Fastest declining

1. Carbondale, -4.9 percent

2. Scranton, -4.7 percent

3. N. Abington Twp., -4.2 percent

4. Dickson City, -4.1 percent

Taylor, -4.1 percent

5. Vandling, -3.9 percent

Luzerne County

(overall decrease of 2 percent) Fastest growing

1. Butler Twp., +23.5 percent

2. Rice Twp., +12.9 percent

3. Sugarloaf Twp., +7.7 percent

4. Fairview Twp., +7.1 percent

5. Jenkins Twp., +6.9 percent

Fastest declining

1. Forty Fort, -5.9 percent

2. Plymouth, -5.8 percent

Shickshinny, -5.8 percent

3. Freeland, -5.6 percent

Jeddo, -5.6 percent

Nanticoke, -5.6 percent

4. Hazleton, -5.5 percent

Pittston, -5.5 percent

Wyoming, -5.5 percent

5. Ashley, -5.4 percent

Warrior Run, -5.4 percent

Susquehanna County

(overall -0.8 percent)

Fastest growing

1. Herrick Twp., +6.7 percent

2. Thompson Twp., +4.5 percent

3. Clifford Twp., +4.2 percent

4. Gibson Twp., +3.5 percent

5. Silver Lake Twp., +2.2

Fastest declining

1. Hop Bottom, -5.4 percent

2. Montrose, -5 percent

3. New Milford, -4.9 percent

4. Oakland, -4.7 percent

Susquehanna Depot, -4.7 percent

Thompson, -4.7 percent

5. Hallstead, -4.7 percent

Monroe County

(overall +19.5 percent)

Fastest growing

1. Price Twp., +28.5 percent

2. Tunkhannock Twp., +26.8 percent

3. Middle Smithfield Twp., +26.6 percent

4. Stroud Twp., +26.2 percent

5. Jackson Twp., +24.5 percent

(No declining municipalities)

Pike County

(overall +25.7 percent)

Fastest growing

1. Dingman Twp., +32.7 percent

2. Lehman Twp., +31.9 percent

3. Delaware Twp., +30.4 percent

4. Milford Twp., +27.7 percent

5. Lackawaxen Twp., +26.8 percent

(No declining municipalities)

Wyoming County

(overall +0.04 percent)

Fastest growing

1. Windham Twp., +5.3 percent

2. Clinton Twp., +4.6 percent

3. Meshoppen Twp., +3.5 percent

4. Northmoreland Twp., +2.4 percent

5. Overfield Twp., +1.5 percent

Fastest declining

1. Nicholson, -5.3 percent

2. Meshoppen, -5.2 percent

3. Laceyville, -5.1 percent

Tunkhannock, -5.1 percent

4. Noxen Twp., -3.2 percent

5. Braintrim Twp., -2 percent




©The Times-Tribune 2007

[ScranBarre]

As a Census junkie myself, I am overjoyed that you posted this article on here. Thank you! I tried giving you a rep boost, but it said I needed to "spread it around" before I could so so.

I find it hillarious that Doherty think the city's population is growing! Yes, the city's minority population is exploding, but, at the same time, its Caucasian population is plummeting. I could very easily copy and paste property transactions for 2007 onto this thread to showcase just how many people from the city have relocated to suburban areas, especially those purchasing lots in the Mid-Valley, North Pocono, and The Abingtons. There are even Scranton ex-patriates living here in Pittston Township and Jenkins Township as well in Luzerne County, which I believe are the sixth and fifth fastest-growing communities in the county respectively. I firmly believe that the most recent estimate of 67,000 for Scranton, as quoted by a recent council speaker, is also an overexaggeration, and I'd peg the city's population at closer to 70,000 based upon my thorough census research of trends. Nevertheless, that is still a significant loss of taxpayers during the past six years, which means that fewer people must bear the financial burden of increasing municipal expenditures. It's a vicious cycle too. I was just in my break room at Lowe's yesterday on my lunch, and a conversation erupted about the local real estate market and how housing prices are shooting through the air. Ironically, Scranton also came up, and I was pleased to hear mostly positive comments regarding it, other than "I wouldn't move there though because of the wage tax."

It is my firm belief that the wage tax is one of the few remaining hurdles keeping people out of the city. It is my hope that a new city amusement/recreation tax and possibly even a 2% city sales tax are both implemented in order to produce enough revenue to bring the wage tax down to a more reasonable 1% or even evenutally eliminate it altogether. Critics would argue that you're only getting rid of one harsh tax with two others, but also bear in mind that the wage tax unfairly burdens the city's residents exclusively while the two that I propose would shoulder the burden equally amongst residents and suburbanites/visitors, who get to enjoy the city's nightlife, culture, dining, etc. and utilizing its municipal services while not paying for them. Critics may also argue that these two new taxes might draw potential visitors away from the city, but I can't envision someone from Hyde Park wasting $2 in gas to drive to Dickson City to avoid walking to the Faccia Luna for lunch in order to pay $0.02 on every $1 they spent to eat there, which might amount to a whopping $0.60 for a check of $30. Similarly, I can't see a suburbanite turning down a meal at Cooper's, Kelly's, Chick's Diner, Coney Island, or another "legendary" city eatery simply to avoid paying $1 or less extra tabbed onto their bill. Only the very, very impoverished might openly-object to that "burden," and we all know that most of Scranton's suburbanites are very far from poverty.

I'm still investigating how both of these taxes are working to benefit other cities, and I'll be able to come to a more realistic analysis once my research is complete. However, if these two taxes turn out to be a financial boon for the city, then the wage tax can be repealed, and people will once again ponder moving to the city. Contrary to what Daniel tells everyone, the property taxes in Scranton are comparable or even less than many of the surrounding suburbs (including my own overtaxed one), so that would likewise be enticing for potential new residents when house-hunting.

Conversely, we could enact those two new taxes and keep the wage tax in place. We could allow the additional revenues from those two new taxes to help greatly improve the city's municipal services to the point where people might consider moving to the Electric City for that reason alone, regardless of the wage tax.

I have so many ideas in this little head of mine; I just have to get them better-organized. I want to see this city grow and flourish, but Doherty is openly-deceiving everyone by saying the city's population is growing. I think it WILL be between 2010-2020 regardless of anything else because I envision more NY/NJ transplants moving to Lackawanna County by then as the Poconos become overcrowded, but in the meantime these two new taxes shifting the wage tax burden off of solely city residents and spreading it more evenly onto the suburbanites as well sounds promising to me. I'll consider e-mailing Janet Evans as well once my analysis is complete to give her my suggestions, as I believe she is head of the city's committee on finance. She seems pretty receptive to new ideas, so hopefully she'll listen to what this boring college student has to say.

[NYRangers 2008]

Thank you SWB. I saw you at the meeting today and wanted to introduce myself at the end, but i got a call and had to go. I hope you didn't get rained on when you left. WNEP was there today. Do you know if they're doing a story on the meeting tonight?

[ScranBarre]

Originally Posted by NYRangers 2008

Thank you SWB. I saw you at the meeting today and wanted to introduce myself at the end, but i got a call and had to go. I hope you didn't get rained on when you left. WNEP was there today. Do you know if they're doing a story on the meeting tonight?

Hopefully I'll see you again in three weeks, my friend. I heard after the meeting from Janet Evans that Judy Gatelli has already canceled next week's meeting due to the holiday, and the following week I'll be in Cincinatti, so I'll miss that meeting. I may even miss the following meeting because I'll likely be scheduled to work to make up the hours lost from my vacation time that week. In any event, I'll try to stay tuned to Channel 61 as much as possible.

[NYRangers 2008]

When you get a chance read my PM i sent you . Thanks.

[MrTudo]

A lot are coming to Fla. We need to find a way to secure our borders better as it seems that people from the northeast are willing to do just about anything to gain entry here and live the Floridian dream.