Dam Susquehanna, dammit

[thecoalman]

You seem to be focused on oil, as the oil supply depletes it will become expensive and that will spur new technology. The market needs to dictate where this goes. If someone figures out how to efficiently and cheaply power rail and trucking with solar where does that leave the canal?

Today's market demands fast service, those that can provide it get the biggest piece of the pie. For example one reason why Wal-Mart is so successful is the little known fact that they have one of the largest if not the largest trucking company in the US that is super efficient. All their stock is in trucks en route to stores, essentially a rolling warehouse which arrives at the store "just in time". That is one things that gives them a huge competitive advantage over other business's.

When the time comes and oil really becomes expensive they aren't going to be looking to a canal that is going to take 1 month to get their package delivered.

[jetgraphics]

Originally Posted by thecoalman

You seem to be focused on oil, as the oil supply depletes it will become expensive and that will spur new technology. The market needs to dictate where this goes. If someone figures out how to efficiently and cheaply power rail and trucking with solar where does that leave the canal?

The end of cheap and plentiful oil is going to hit America hard. We don't have the same alternatives that other nations preserved. For example, each successive dominant technology actively destroyed its predecessor. (Railroad companies destroyed canals; Buses / automobiles killed off urban electric rail)

I am not advocating canal construction to make the Susquehanna navigable, but a series of lakes. The canals would be adjuncts, for areas developed into waterfront property or industrial uses.

I do not expect "cheap solar" to appear in the near future. The pronouncements of "the solution" have been touted since the 1970s.
I always hoped that 'new technology' would appear, but from the current state of the art, high efficiency is very very expensive. And low efficiency inexpensive systems are not durable, and often require replacement in as little as seven years.

In addition for solar to be optimized for transportation, the storage problem has to be resolved. At this time, chemical batteries are the bottleneck (size, weight, and cost). If ultracapacitors are feasible, they may offer a more reliable means to store electricity.

After oil depletes, grid electricity will be the motive force for land based transportation. How that grid electricity is produced is another question.

Today's market demands fast service, those that can provide it get the biggest piece of the pie. For example one reason why Wal-Mart is so successful is the little known fact that they have one of the largest if not the largest trucking company in the US that is super efficient. All their stock is in trucks en route to stores, essentially a rolling warehouse which arrives at the store "just in time". That is one things that gives them a huge competitive advantage over other business's.

I do not dispute that fast service will be available - but at a premium.
Where speed is not as important, water transportation is superior, and more cost effective. And electric rail is the superior land transportation mode.

When diesel fuel passes $5 / gallon, do you believe those truck fleets will be widespread?

When the time comes and oil really becomes expensive they aren't going to be looking to a canal that is going to take 1 month to get their package delivered.

You are exaggerating about the 1 month trip time. 400 miles of river, at the snail pace of 4 MPH computes to 100 hours (4 days). On the other hand, if hydrofoil ferry / freight service is implemented, at 30+ MPH, traversing the 400 miles would only take half a day.

Again, for fast freight, water transport is not optimal. But I doubt that FedEx and UPS will be relying on air cargo, when jet fuel hits the ceiling.

In Europe and other places served by high speed rail, there is also fast freight service.

But that's a whole different topic - high speed rail in America, and the need to electrify mainline railroad.

If the only goal was to make a navigable link from the Chesapeake Bay throughout the Susquehanna River valley, canals would be sufficient. But the idea is to generate more benefits that water transport alone.
[] Flood Control, via dams
[] Hydroelectric power generation, via dams (or other means)
[] Shoreline restoration (eliminate levees, restore natural shoreline, develop waterfront property)
[] Commercial development (industry, manufacturing, transportation, recreation, vacation, entertainment, food production)
[] Water reservoirs for irrigation in times of drought

[thecoalman]

Originally Posted by jetgraphics

Again, for fast freight, water transport is not optimal. But I doubt that FedEx and UPS will be relying on air cargo, when jet fuel hits the ceiling.

Ironically that is one thing that is being researched, the US Air Force has been looking into using liquid fuel converted from coal. Successfully I believe. Obviously one reason would be to secure a source within the US borders.

[jetgraphics]

Speaking of economic benefits of an engineered river...
Kinzua Dam - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

"The total cost of construction was approximately $108 million. According to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Kinzua more than paid for itself in 1972 when tropical storm Agnes dumped continual heavy rains on the watershed, bringing the reservoir to within three feet of its maximum storage capacity. Over $247 million in downstream damages were prevented."

I wonder what the people in the Susquehanna River valley would have done, if they knew that Hurricane Agnes was in their future?

Agnes brought heavy rainfall along its path, killing 129 and causing $11.6 billion (2005 US dollars) in damage, with railroad damage so extensive it contributed to the creation of Conrail.

Would it be worth spending 11.6 billion to avoid 11.6 billion in damages?
At $108 million / dam, one could afford ten or eleven dams at that price tag.

To put that into perspective, the BIG DIG cost taxpayers over $14 billion - for Boston's benefit... but caused traffic congestion in outlying areas (go figure!).